AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

Part of: AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.

Yes probability

88%

7d change

+3.5pp

Volume

$108K

Resolves by

Dec 31, 2026

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-07-15 00:23 UTC. Trade on the venue itself: this page is research context, not an order book. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.