PREDICTION MARKETS
Live event odds, from the crowd
What prediction markets currently price for Fed decisions, Bitcoin levels, elections and geopolitics. Sourced from Polymarket, refreshed continuously. Crowd probability estimates, not financial advice.
PINNED2026 midterms board: Senate and House control, every recorded race, depth and 7-day movesOpen the boardBiggest moves, last 24 hours
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 12-18?63%+39.0pp 24h$57K
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in October?37%-34.0pp 24h$81K
- Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?54%-31.0pp 24h$142K
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in October?93%+26.0pp 24h$106K
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?80%+24.0pp 24h$341K
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October?45%+23.0pp 24h$74K
- Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?30%-21.0pp 24h$526K
- Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?51%+19.0pp 24h$228K
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?63%-18.0pp 24h$1.4M
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?65%+17.5pp 24h$1.5M
Markets that settle more than a day from now, with at least $50K traded. Weather, match-result and post-count markets are left out; finance, macro, politics and crypto lead.
Largest markets settled in the last 14 days
- Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?Resolved NOOct 6, 2026
- Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?Resolved NOOct 6, 2026
- Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?Resolved NOOct 6, 2026
- Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?Resolved NOOct 6, 2026
- Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?Resolved NOOct 6, 2026
- Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?Resolved NOOct 6, 2026
- Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Resolved NOOct 5, 2026
- Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Resolved NOOct 5, 2026
- Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?Resolved NOOct 6, 2026
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Resolved NOOct 6, 2026
- Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Resolved NOOct 5, 2026
- Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Resolved NOOct 5, 2026
Each settled market keeps its page as a dated record: the venue's recorded outcome, the settlement date and the recorded probability path.
Largest live markets by category
Politics and elections
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?2%$52.9M
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?4%$41.6M
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?15%$28.0M
- Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?2%$19.7M
- Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?2%$19.4M
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?9%$18.6M
- Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?2%$18.5M
- Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?2%$17.7M
Macro and the Fed
Finance and markets
Crypto
Geopolitics
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?17%$74.1M
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?2%$44.1M
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?2%$35.7M
- Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?2%$34.2M
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?6%$27.2M
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?4%$25.3M
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?13%$14.9M
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?3%$11.8M
About these numbers
What do these percentages mean?
Each number is the live price of the YES outcome on a prediction market, read as the crowd's probability estimate. A market at 92% means traders are collectively pricing roughly a 92% chance the event happens. Prices come from Polymarket.
How often is this updated?
Kresmion syncs the largest markets every few minutes and every live market at least every six hours. Each market page shows its last update time. Figures are crowd estimates and can move fast around news.
Is this financial advice?
No. These are probability estimates from prediction-market prices, shown for research context. Markets can be illiquid, and prices can reflect fees, settlement rules and venue quirks as well as genuine probability.
Sources: Polymarket gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Percentages are YES prices. Volume is lifetime traded volume in USD. Free to read, no sign-in required.
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