PREDICTION MARKETS

Live event odds, from the crowd

What prediction markets currently price for Fed decisions, Bitcoin levels, elections and geopolitics. Sourced from Polymarket and Kalshi, refreshed continuously. Crowd probability estimates, not financial advice.

Biggest moves, last 24 hours

Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?97%+89.1pp 24h$147KWill the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 14?98%+82.1pp 24h$56KWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 14?93%+76.0pp 24h$302KWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 15?83%+71.0pp 24h$131KWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?89%+64.5pp 24h$37KIran successfully targets shipping on July 14?97%+63.1pp 24h$13KWill the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 14?2%-57.5pp 24h$50KWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?41%-51.7pp 24h$286KWill Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?19%-50.0pp 24h$243KWill Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?94%+48.5pp 24h$191K

Largest live markets

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?2%$64.7MWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?20%$41.6MWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?4%$38.4MWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?8%$35.9MWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?4%$34.9MWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?20%$26.5MWill Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?1%$26.0MWill Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?2%$24.5MWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?10%$22.0MWill Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1%$18.8MWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?92%$17.8MWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?12%$17.4MPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?10%$17.1MWill Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?1%$16.8MHantavirus pandemic in 2026?2%$16.7MStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?2%$16.6MWill Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?1%$15.9MWill Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?2%$15.0MWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?20%$14.6MWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?42%$14.5MWill Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?2%$14.3MWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?15%$13.9MWill Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?2%$13.6MWill Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1%$13.3MWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?7%$13.3MWill Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?2%$12.8MWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?8%$12.6MWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?7%$12.5MWill Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?1%$12.3MWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?12%$12.1M

About these numbers

What do these percentages mean?

Each number is the live price of the YES outcome on a prediction market, read as the crowd's probability estimate. A market at 92% means traders are collectively pricing roughly a 92% chance the event happens. Prices come from Polymarket, with Kalshi shown for comparison where the same question trades on both venues.

How often is this updated?

Kresmion syncs the largest markets every few minutes and every live market at least every six hours. Each market page shows its last update time. Figures are crowd estimates and can move fast around news.

Is this financial advice?

No. These are probability estimates from prediction-market prices, shown for research context. Markets can be illiquid, and prices can reflect fees, settlement rules and venue quirks as well as genuine probability.

Sources: Polymarket gamma API and Kalshi market data, synced by Kresmion. Percentages are YES prices. Volume is lifetime traded volume in USD. Free to read, no sign-in required.