PREDICTION MARKETS
Live event odds, from the crowd
What prediction markets currently price for Fed decisions, Bitcoin levels, elections and geopolitics. Sourced from Polymarket and Kalshi, refreshed continuously. Crowd probability estimates, not financial advice.
Biggest moves, last 24 hours
Largest live markets by category
Politics and elections
Macro and the Fed
Finance and markets
Crypto
Geopolitics
About these numbers
What do these percentages mean?
Each number is the live price of the YES outcome on a prediction market, read as the crowd's probability estimate. A market at 92% means traders are collectively pricing roughly a 92% chance the event happens. Prices come from Polymarket, with Kalshi shown for comparison where the same question trades on both venues.
How often is this updated?
Kresmion syncs the largest markets every few minutes and every live market at least every six hours. Each market page shows its last update time. Figures are crowd estimates and can move fast around news.
Is this financial advice?
No. These are probability estimates from prediction-market prices, shown for research context. Markets can be illiquid, and prices can reflect fees, settlement rules and venue quirks as well as genuine probability.
Sources: Polymarket gamma API and Kalshi market data, synced by Kresmion. Percentages are YES prices. Volume is lifetime traded volume in USD. Free to read, no sign-in required.
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