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Research papers & explainers
Plain-language pieces from Kresmion Research, in two kinds: studies that run the numbers on our own data, and explainers that teach a concept. Information-only, Kresmion makes no buy or sell recommendations, and every paper is operator-reviewed before it appears here.
Studies: what the data shows
16Data reports that run the numbers on Kresmion's own datasets: 13F flows, the macro regime, on-chain whale activity, and more. Each figure is source-attributed.
- Same Question, Different Price: Seven Polymarket and Kalshi Pairs, One Live GapRead the study →
- A Week Before Resolution, How Well Does the Crowd Price Prediction Markets?Read the study →
- Follow the Crowd, Do Not Fade It: What a Year of Speculative Positioning Actually PredictsRead the study →
- More Than Half of AST SpaceMobile's Last Reported Revenue Was a Sale to a Company It Half Owns. Three Other Things in the Filings.Read the study →
- The AI Memory Trade Just Had Its Black Tuesday. Speculators Were Already Net Short the Nasdaq at a One Year Extreme.Read the study →
- Private Credit's Gates Came Down in June. We Checked Which Numbers Held Up.Read the study →
- Warsh Inherited a 6.7 Trillion Dollar Balance Sheet. Here Is Where Its Liquidity Stance Shows Up in Our Regime Score.Read the study →
- Bitcoin Is Down 48 Percent From Its Peak. Riot, Galaxy, and Mara Climbed Anyway. The Difference Was AI Data Centers.Read the study →
- Inside Amazon: Where the Money Comes From, Why the Cloud Earns the Profit, and Why It Builds Its Own ChipsRead the study →
- Is the 2026 Stock Advance Broad, or Just a Few Names? A Breadth StudyRead the study →
- Did the Stocks Hedge Funds Bought Most in Q1 Beat the Market?Read the study →
- The Biggest Bitcoin and Solana Whale Flows on the TapeRead the study →
- The US Market Regime Right Now, in NumbersRead the study →
- The Stocks Hedge Funds Bought Most in Q1 2026Read the study →
- What Happened to Stocks, Bonds, and Gold After Fed Rate Decisions: 17 Events, 2022 to 2025Read the study →
- Private Credit's Public Shadow: What Institutional Positioning Shows, and What It Can'tRead the study →
Explainers: how it works
31Plain-language definitions of the metrics and mechanics behind the data, with a worked example from Kresmion's own numbers.
- Contango and Backwardation: How to Read the Shape of a Futures CurveRead the explainer →
- How to Read the Weekly EIA Petroleum and Natural Gas Inventory NumbersRead the explainer →
- Futures Seasonality: What Monthly Patterns Can and Cannot Tell YouRead the explainer →
- Reading a Prediction Market Order Book: Why a 4 Percent Market Can Cost More Than 4 PercentRead the explainer →
- Algorithmic Footprints in Prediction Markets: How to Spot Execution Algorithms in the Public TapeRead the explainer →
- What Is the VIX? The Volatility Index ExplainedRead the explainer →
- What Is TIC Data? Who Owns US TreasuriesRead the explainer →
- What Is Options Skew and the Put/Call Ratio?Read the explainer →
- 13D vs 13G: How to Read an Activist Investor FilingRead the explainer →
- What Is a Dividend? How Companies Pay You to Hold Their StockRead the explainer →
- What Is the Bid-Ask Spread? The Hidden Cost in Every TradeRead the explainer →
- What Is the P/E Ratio? How to Tell If a Stock Is ExpensiveRead the explainer →
- What Is Short Selling? How Betting a Stock Falls WorksRead the explainer →
- What Is a Stock Split? Why More Shares Does Not Mean More MoneyRead the explainer →
- What Is an Index Fund? Owning the Whole Market, ExplainedRead the explainer →
- How to Read a Candlestick Chart: A Beginner's GuideRead the explainer →
- What Is Market Cap? Why It Matters More Than the Share PriceRead the explainer →
- What Is an ETF? Exchange-Traded Funds Explained for BeginnersRead the explainer →
- What Is the Real Yield? TIPS, Breakevens, and Why It Moves StocksRead the explainer →
- What Is Dealer Gamma Exposure (GEX)? How Options Hedging Moves the MarketRead the explainer →
- What Is the STOCK Act? How Congress Discloses Its Stock TradesRead the explainer →
- How Prediction Markets Price the Fed: Reading Polymarket and Kalshi OddsRead the explainer →
- What Is a Form 4? How to Read Insider Buying and SellingRead the explainer →
- Three in Four Solana Perp Accounts Are Long. On Binance They Have Been Paid to Hold That Bet for Most of a Month.Read the explainer →
- What Is the Yield Curve, and What Do Inversion and Steepening Mean?Read the explainer →
- What Is the Fed Dot Plot? The Summary of Economic Projections, ExplainedRead the explainer →
- What Is Exchange Netflow (and What Whale Self-Transfer Noise Means)?Read the explainer →
- What Is a Cross-Asset Market Regime Score?Read the explainer →
- What Is COT Net-Long Positioning, and How Do You Read It?Read the explainer →
- How to Read a 13F Filing (and What It Doesn't Tell You)Read the explainer →
- The SpaceX IPO, Explained: $75 Billion Raised, a $1.77 Trillion DebutRead the explainer →
