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Research papers & explainers
Plain-language pieces from Kresmion Research: studies that run the numbers on our own data, and explainers that teach a concept. Each one cites the data it is built on. Information only, no buy or sell recommendations.
124 papers, newest first within each topic
Options & greeks13
Options & greeksExplainerWhat Is the Expected Move? How Options Price an Earnings Day (and IV Crush)Options & greeksExplainerWhat Are the Options Greeks? Delta, Gamma, Theta, Vega and Rho ExplainedOptions & greeksExplainerWhat Is a Gamma Squeeze? How Options Hedging Can Accelerate a MoveOptions & greeksExplainerWhat Is Vanna? How Volatility Shifts Move Dealer HedgesOptions & greeksExplainerWhat Is Theta? Options Time Decay ExplainedOptions & greeksExplainerWhat Are Call and Put Walls? Options Walls ExplainedOptions & greeksExplainerWhat Is Implied Volatility? IV, the Term Structure, and Realized VolOptions & greeksExplainerWhat Is Dealer Delta Exposure (DEX)?Options & greeksExplainerWhat Is Charm? How Time Moves Options HedgesOptions & greeksExplainerWhat Is a Call Option and a Put Option? Options Explained for BeginnersOptions & greeksExplainerWhat Is the VIX? The Volatility Index ExplainedOptions & greeksExplainerWhat Is Options Skew and the Put/Call Ratio?Options & greeksExplainerWhat Is Dealer Gamma Exposure (GEX)? How Options Hedging Moves the Market
Stocks & filings36
Stocks & filingsExplainerWhat Is an IPO Lockup Expiration? Why Insider Shares Unlock on a ScheduleStocks & filingsExplainerHow SpaceX Makes Money: Starlink, Launch and Super Intelligence, Read From the 10-QStocks & filingsExplainerWhat Is a BDC? Business Development Companies and Private Credit ExplainedStocks & filingsExplainerWhat Is Merger Arbitrage? Deal Spreads, Deal Risk and the Filings Behind ThemStocks & filingsExplainerWhat Is a Stock Buyback? How Share Repurchases Work and Where They Are DisclosedStocks & filingsExplainerWhat Is EBITDA? Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and AmortizationStocks & filingsExplainerHow to Read a Cash Flow Statement: Operating, Investing and Financing CashStocks & filingsExplainerHow to Read a Balance Sheet: Assets, Liabilities and Equity, Line by LineStocks & filingsExplainerWhat Is Free Cash Flow? How FCF Is Calculated and Why Definitions DifferStocks & filingsExplainerWhat Is Earnings Per Share (EPS)? Basic, Diluted and Adjusted EPS ExplainedStocks & filingsExplainerWhat Is Short Interest? How FINRA Counts Open Short PositionsStocks & filingsExplainerHow to Read an Income Statement: Revenue to Net Income, Line by LineStocks & filingsExplainerWhat Is a Short Squeeze? How Short Covering Can Push a Stock HigherStocks & filingsExplainerWhat Is Short Volume? Reading FINRA's Daily Short-Sale DataStocks & filingsExplainerHow to Read a 10-K: A Company's Annual Report, Item by ItemStocks & filingsExplainerWhat Is an S-1 Filing? The IPO Registration Statement ExplainedStocks & filingsExplainerWhat Is a Proxy Statement (DEF 14A)? Executive Pay and Shareholder VotesStocks & filingsExplainerWhat Is a Going Concern Warning in an SEC Filing?Stocks & filingsExplainerHow to Read an 8-K FilingStocks & filingsExplainerWhat Is an IPO? How a Company Goes PublicStocks & filingsExplainerWhat Is Open Interest?Stocks & filingsExplainerWhat Is TIC Data? Who Owns US TreasuriesStocks & filingsExplainer13D vs 13G: How to Read an Activist Investor FilingStocks & filingsExplainerWhat Is Short Selling? How Betting a Stock Falls WorksStocks & filingsExplainerWhat Is the STOCK Act? How Congress Discloses Its Stock TradesStocks & filingsExplainerWhat Is a Form 4? How to Read Insider Buying and SellingStocks & filingsStudyMore Than Half of AST SpaceMobile's Last Reported Revenue Was a Sale to a Company It Half Owns. Three Other Things in the Filings.Stocks & filingsStudyThe AI Memory Trade Just Had Its Black Tuesday. Speculators Were Already Net Short the Nasdaq at a One Year Extreme.Stocks & filingsStudyPrivate Credit's Gates Came Down in June. We Checked Which Numbers Held Up.Stocks & filingsStudyInside Amazon: Where the Money Comes From, Why the Cloud Earns the Profit, and Why It Builds Its Own ChipsStocks & filingsStudyIs the 2026 Stock Advance Broad, or Just a Few Names? A Breadth StudyStocks & filingsStudyDid the Stocks Hedge Funds Bought Most in Q1 Beat the Market?Stocks & filingsStudyThe Stocks Hedge Funds Bought Most in Q1 2026Stocks & filingsExplainerHow to Read a 13F Filing (and What It Doesn't Tell You)Stocks & filingsExplainerThe SpaceX IPO, Explained: $75 Billion Raised, a $1.77 Trillion DebutStocks & filingsStudyPrivate Credit's Public Shadow: What Institutional Positioning Shows, and What It Can't
Futures & positioning8
Futures & positioningExplainerWhat Is Hedging? How Futures and Options Offset an Existing RiskFutures & positioningExplainerHow to Calculate Position Size: Risk, Stop Distance and LeverageFutures & positioningExplainerWhat Is a Futures Contract? Futures Explained for BeginnersFutures & positioningExplainerContango and Backwardation: How to Read the Shape of a Futures CurveFutures & positioningExplainerHow to Read the Weekly EIA Petroleum and Natural Gas Inventory NumbersFutures & positioningExplainerFutures Seasonality: What Monthly Patterns Can and Cannot Tell YouFutures & positioningStudyFollow the Crowd, Do Not Fade It: What a Year of Speculative Positioning Actually PredictsFutures & positioningExplainerWhat Is COT Net-Long Positioning, and How Do You Read It?
Macro & rates20
Macro & ratesExplainerWhat Is a Treasury Auction? How the US Sells Its Debt and How to Read the ResultsMacro & ratesExplainerWhat Is SOFR? The Repo Market and the Fed's Rate Corridor ExplainedMacro & ratesExplainerWhat Is Bond Duration? Macaulay vs Modified Duration, With a Worked ExampleMacro & ratesExplainerTreasury Bills, Notes and Bonds: How US Government Debt WorksMacro & ratesExplainerWhat Is a Sovereign Credit Rating? How Agencies Grade Government DebtMacro & ratesStudyThe US Market Regime on September 30, 2026, in NumbersMacro & ratesExplainerWhat Is a Recession? The NBER Definition vs the Two-Quarter RuleMacro & ratesExplainerWhat Is Quantitative Easing and Tightening? QE and QT ExplainedMacro & ratesExplainerWhat Is a Credit Spread? Corporate, High-Yield and Sovereign Spreads ExplainedMacro & ratesExplainerWhat Is a Central Bank Policy Rate? How the Fed, ECB, BoJ and BoE Set RatesMacro & ratesExplainerWhat Is an HS Code? How Goods Are Classified in Trade DataMacro & ratesExplainerWhat Is an Event Study? How Fed, CPI and Jobs Day Moves Are MeasuredMacro & ratesExplainerWhat Is a Bond? How Bond Prices and Yields Move in Opposite DirectionsMacro & ratesExplainerWhat Is CPI? How the Consumer Price Index Is MeasuredMacro & ratesExplainerWhat Is the Real Yield? TIPS, Breakevens, and Why It Moves StocksMacro & ratesStudyWarsh Inherited a 6.7 Trillion Dollar Balance Sheet. Here Is Where Its Liquidity Stance Shows Up in Our Regime Score.Macro & ratesExplainerWhat Is the Yield Curve, and What Do Inversion and Steepening Mean?Macro & ratesExplainerWhat Is the Fed Dot Plot? The Summary of Economic Projections, ExplainedMacro & ratesExplainerWhat Is a Cross-Asset Market Regime Score?Macro & ratesStudyWhat Happened to Stocks, Bonds, and Gold After Fed Rate Decisions: 17 Events, 2022 to 2025
Crypto14
CryptoExplainerWhat Is Ethereum? Smart Contracts, Gas, ETH Supply and Proof of StakeCryptoExplainerWhat Is Bitcoin? How the Network, the 21 Million Supply and Its Markets WorkCryptoExplainerWhat Is Staking in Crypto? How Proof-of-Stake Rewards, Risks and Lock-Ups WorkCryptoExplainerWhat Is the Bitcoin Halving? Every Halving Date, Block Height and the Supply ScheduleCryptoExplainerWhat Is a Stablecoin? How USDT and USDC Hold a Dollar PegCryptoExplainerWhat Is Max Pain in Options? How It Is Calculated and What It ShowsCryptoExplainerWhat Is Leverage and Margin? How Trading on Margin WorksCryptoExplainerWhat Is a Perpetual Futures Contract?CryptoExplainerHow to Read Spot Bitcoin ETF FlowsCryptoExplainerWhat Is a Crypto Liquidation?CryptoStudyBitcoin Is Down 48 Percent From Its Peak. Riot, Galaxy, and Mara Climbed Anyway. The Difference Was AI Data Centers.CryptoExplainerThree in Four Solana Perp Accounts Are Long. On One Major Exchange They Have Been Paid to Hold That Bet for Most of a Month.CryptoExplainerWhat Is Exchange Netflow (and What Whale Self-Transfer Noise Means)?CryptoStudyThe Biggest Bitcoin and Solana Whale Flows on the Tape
Prediction markets7
Prediction marketsExplainerWhat Is the Federal Reserve? How the Fed Is Built and What It DoesPrediction marketsExplainerWhat Is a Prediction Market? How Contract Prices Become ProbabilitiesPrediction marketsExplainerReading a Prediction Market Order Book: Why a 4 Percent Market Can Cost More Than 4 PercentPrediction marketsExplainerAlgorithmic Footprints in Prediction Markets: How to Spot Execution Algorithms in the Public TapePrediction marketsExplainerPolymarket vs Kalshi: Why the Same Question Can Trade at Two Different PricesPrediction marketsStudyA Week Before Resolution, How Well Does the Crowd Price Prediction Markets?Prediction marketsExplainerHow Prediction Markets Price the Fed: Reading Polymarket and Kalshi Odds
Basics & methods26
Basics & methodsExplainerWhat Is Support and Resistance? How Chart Levels Are Drawn and Their LimitsBasics & methodsExplainerTechnical vs Fundamental Analysis: What Each Studies and What Research ShowsBasics & methodsExplainerWhat Is Trading Volume? How Volume Is Counted and Read on a ChartBasics & methodsExplainerWhat Is a Stop Order? Stop vs Stop-Limit Orders Explained With ExamplesBasics & methodsExplainerWhat Is MACD? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Indicator ExplainedBasics & methodsExplainerWhat Is VWAP? The Volume-Weighted Average Price Explained With a Worked ExampleBasics & methodsExplainerWhat Are Bollinger Bands? How the 20-Period, Two Standard Deviation Bands WorkBasics & methodsExplainerMarket Order vs Limit Order: What Each Guarantees, With an Order Book ExampleBasics & methodsExplainerWhat Is Correlation in Markets? How Asset Returns Move Together, With Real DataBasics & methodsExplainerWhat Is Compound Interest? How Interest Earns Interest, With Worked ExamplesBasics & methodsExplainerWhat Is Asset Allocation? Stocks, Bonds and Cash, Drift and RebalancingBasics & methodsExplainerWhat Is Diversification? How Spreading Holdings Changes Portfolio RiskBasics & methodsExplainerWhat Is a Drawdown? Maximum Drawdown Explained With S&P 500 ExamplesBasics & methodsExplainerWhat Is the Sharpe Ratio? Formula, Worked Example and What It Leaves OutBasics & methodsExplainerWhat Is Beta in Stocks? How Beta Measures Market Sensitivity, With a Worked ExampleBasics & methodsExplainerWhat Is RSI? The Relative Strength Index ExplainedBasics & methodsExplainerWhat Is a Market Maker? How Liquidity Providers Quote, Hedge and Earn the SpreadBasics & methodsExplainerWhat Is a Moving Average? SMA and EMA ExplainedBasics & methodsExplainerWhat Is the P/E Ratio? How to Tell If a Stock Is ExpensiveBasics & methodsExplainerWhat Is the Bid-Ask Spread? The Hidden Cost in Every TradeBasics & methodsExplainerWhat Is a Dividend? How Companies Pay You to Hold Their StockBasics & methodsExplainerWhat Is an Index Fund? Owning the Whole Market, ExplainedBasics & methodsExplainerWhat Is a Stock Split? Why More Shares Does Not Mean More MoneyBasics & methodsExplainerWhat Is Market Cap? Why It Matters More Than the Share PriceBasics & methodsExplainerWhat Is an ETF? Exchange-Traded Funds Explained for BeginnersBasics & methodsExplainerHow to Read a Candlestick Chart: A Beginner's Guide