Research Notes
Research Notes
Independent market analysis from Kresmion Research, across the macro regime, positioning extremes, notable filings and on-chain flows. Information-only, Kresmion makes no buy or sell recommendations. Every note is operator-reviewed before it appears here.
- July 14, 2026More Public Companies Filed to Add Ether to Their Balance Sheets Last Month Than Bitcoin. One of Them Now Holds Almost 5 Percent of the Supply.Read the analysis →
- July 13, 2026Liquidity Is Abundant and the Real Cost of Money Keeps Rising. The June Inflation Report Is the Test.Read the analysis →
- July 12, 2026A Prediction Market Now Prices a July Fed Hike at 20 Percent. Speculators Just Flipped Net Short the Euro.Read the analysis →
- July 11, 2026Speculators Have Cut Their S&P 500 Short Position to a One Year Low. A Prediction Market Is Pricing the Same Calm.Read the analysis →
- July 9, 2026Oil Jumped More Than 4 Percent When the Iran Ceasefire Collapsed. Speculators Went In With One of Their Smallest Positions of the Year.Read the analysis →
- July 8, 2026Ether Rose Almost 8 Percent This Week. One Fund Did Most of the ETF Buying, and the Largest Wallets Sent the Most Ether to Exchanges in a Month.Read the analysis →
- July 7, 2026Speculators Built a Record Copper Long Into the US Tariff Decision. They Have Been Unwinding It for a Month.Read the analysis →
- July 6, 2026Five Chip Companies Show Concurrent Insider Sell Clusters, Every One Including the CEO or CFO. The Sector Has Not Shown a Single Buy Cluster Since May.Read the analysis →
- July 5, 2026Speculators Are the Most Net Short the British Pound in a Year. They Built the Bet in a Single Week.Read the analysis →
- July 4, 2026Solana, Ether and Cardano Have All Outrun Bitcoin This Week. The Money Behind Them Is Not Coming From the ETFs.Read the analysis →
- July 2, 2026Bitcoin's Futures Speculators Are Near a One Year Net Long Extreme. Its US ETFs Just Posted Five Straight Days of Outflows.Read the analysis →
- July 1, 2026Options Dealers Are Positioned to Dampen the S&P and the Nasdaq. The Russell 2000 Is the One Index They Are Still Positioned to Amplify.Read the analysis →
- June 30, 2026Kresmion's Regime Score Has Almost Recovered From Its First Risk-Off Print. The Rebound Is Built on One Backward-Looking Factor.Read the analysis →
- June 29, 2026Two Independent Betting Markets Quietly Agree on Bitcoin's Year End. The Most Likely Outcome Sits Below Where It Trades Now.Read the analysis →
- June 28, 2026Treasuries Have Started Moving With Stocks. The 60/40 Bond Hedge Is Quietly WeakeningRead the analysis →
- June 27, 2026Gold Stopped Trading Like a Safe Haven This Month. Its 30-Day Correlation to the S&P 500 Is Now Positive 0.78.Read the analysis →
- June 26, 2026Nvidia's Five Most Senior Officers Sold on the Same Day. Across the AI-Hardware Complex, Insider Buying Has Nearly Vanished.Read the analysis →
- June 25, 2026Kresmion's Cross Asset Regime Turned Risk-Off Today. Credit Spreads and Recession Bets Have Not.Read the analysis →
- June 24, 2026Speculators Are the Most Crowded Into Natural Gas in Over a Year. Storage Sits Nearly 6 Percent Above Normal.Read the analysis →
- June 23, 2026Kresmion's News Engine Flagged a Maximum Oil Supply Shock. The Coverage It Counted Was About Peace.Read the analysis →
- June 22, 2026Berkshire Tripled Its Alphabet Stake in Greg Abel's First Quarter. Warren Buffett Spent Years Calling It One of His Mistakes.Read the analysis →
- June 21, 2026Bridgewater and Appaloosa Both Roughly Doubled Their Amazon Stakes Last Quarter. Most of Their Peers Were Cutting.Read the analysis →
- June 20, 2026Bitcoin Futures Speculators Are Crowded Long at a Six Week High. Spot ETFs, Whales, and the Options Desk Are Leaning the Other Way.Read the analysis →
- June 19, 2026Applied Materials Is Up 75% This Year. Five Insiders, Including the CEO and CTO, Just Sold $29.6 Million.Read the analysis →
- June 18, 2026US Retail Sales Rose 0.9% in May Against a 0.5% Forecast, the Same Afternoon the Fed Held at 3.75%.Read the analysis →
- June 17, 2026The Market Prices Today's Fed Decision at 98%. The Real Event Is Warsh's First Dot Plot.Read the analysis →
- June 16, 2026Five Funds Opened New Meta Positions in Q1. Five Others Trimmed Theirs.Read the analysis →
- June 15, 2026Producer Inflation Hit 6.5% in May, the Hottest Since 2022. The Oil Spike Behind It Is Already Reversing.Read the analysis →
- June 14, 2026Six Funds Added to Broadcom in Q1. D. E. Shaw's Stake Jumped 127% to $2 Billion.Read the analysis →
- June 13, 2026Risk-Off Unwound in Three Days Before Warsh's First Fed MeetingRead the analysis →
- June 12, 2026Oracle Booked $638 Billion of AI Demand. The Stock Fell 8.5% the Next Day.Read the analysis →
- June 11, 2026The Whale Tape's Biggest Genuine Move This Week Was Solana, Not BitcoinRead the analysis →
- June 10, 2026Bitcoin ETFs Shed $3.4 Billion in Twelve Sessions. Futures Traders Are Still Crowded Long.Read the analysis →
- June 9, 2026A Week Before Warsh's First Fed Meeting, Bitcoin Sits at 13.8% Odds of $110kRead the analysis →
- June 8, 2026Every Macro Factor Turned Negative This Week. A Hot Jobs Report Was the Trigger.Read the analysis →
- June 5, 2026$2.3 Billion of Bitcoin's Whale Volume Last Week Was Self-Transfer Noise. The Genuine Flow Ran One Way.Read the analysis →
- June 4, 2026Viking Global Put $1.9 Billion Into Visa in Q1. Not Every Fund Agreed.Read the analysis →
- June 3, 2026The Big Funds Were Buying Alphabet in Q1. This Week, Berkshire Added $10 Billion.Read the analysis →
- June 2, 2026Nvidia's $2 Billion Tell: The AI Trade Reaches the Optical LayerRead the analysis →
- June 1, 2026Risk Appetite Rebounded in May. It Skipped Bitcoin.Read the analysis →
- May 31, 2026Risk Comes Out of the System: Positioning Capitulates as the Oil Shock FadesRead the analysis →
- May 30, 2026Accumulation Without Conviction: Bitcoin Inflows Build, the Market Stays SkepticalRead the analysis →
- May 28, 2026Neutral Macro Regime Amid Elevated Volatility and Geopolitical TensionsRead the analysis →