Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Part of: Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?" at 6% as of Oct 15, 2026, 09:45 UTC, up from 5% a week earlier.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since May 20, 2026, this market has traded between 4 percent (Sep 16, 2026) and 57 percent (May 21, 2026), across 9,315 recorded prices. The current price of 6 percent is 1.3 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (5 percent), and 12.3 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (19 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | 29% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 21% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 19% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 24% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 14% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 17% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 22% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 6% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 6% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 5% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 5% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 6% |
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 6 percent, with the NO outcome at 94 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
More crypto markets
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Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 1163699
Kresmion, "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 1163699.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026">Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-15 09:45 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.