Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Part of: Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 29, 2026, Polymarket prices "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?" at 14 percent YES, on $11.4M of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since May 20, 2026, this market has traded between 13 percent (Aug 5, 2026) and 57 percent (May 21, 2026), across 3,650 recorded prices. The current price of 14 percent is 11.0 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (26 percent), and 14.0 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (28 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | 57% |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 40% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 38% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 29% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 21% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 19% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 24% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 14% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 14 percent and the best ask is 15 percent, a spread of 1.0 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds $0 on the bid side and $0 on the ask side.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-08-29 05:26 UTC.
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 14 percent, with the NO outcome at 86 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-29 05:27 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.