Fed rate hike in 2026?
Part of: Fed rate hike in 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 29, 2026, Polymarket prices "Fed rate hike in 2026?" at 67 percent YES, up 9.0 points in the last 24 hours, on $8.1M of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Apr 30, 2026, this market has traded between 17 percent (Apr 30, 2026) and 79 percent (Jul 28, 2026), across 2,030 recorded prices. The current price of 67 percent is 10.0 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (56 percent), and 1.0 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (66 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2026 | 20% |
| May 4, 2026 | 20% |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 54% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 67% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 68% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 55% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 47% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 55% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 67% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 66 percent and the best ask is 67 percent, a spread of 1.0 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds $4K on the bid side and $1K on the ask side.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-08-29 05:26 UTC.
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 67 percent, with the NO outcome at 33 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-29 05:32 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.