PREDICTION MARKET ODDS

Lionel Messi: 3+ goals

Part of: England vs. Argentina - Player Props. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.

Yes probability
2%
24h change
+1.0pp
Volume
$46K
Resolves by
Jul 15, 2026

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

Other outcomes in this event

Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots74%Lionel Messi: 1+ goals39%Harry Kane: 1+ goals38%Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals24%Lionel Messi: 2+ goals10%Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists10%Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals4%

Resolution criteria

In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between England and Argentina, scheduled for July 15 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lionel Messi records 3+ goals in the official box score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Own goals do not count. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "50-50". If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-07-15 01:23 UTC. Trade on the venue itself: this page is research context, not an order book. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.