Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Part of: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 29, 2026, Polymarket prices "Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?" at 4 percent YES, on $18.0M of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since May 14, 2026, this market has traded between 2 percent (Jul 14, 2026) and 7 percent (May 14, 2026), across 3,058 recorded prices. The current price of 4 percent is 0.2 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (4 percent), and 0.4 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (3 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | 7% |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 3% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 3% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 4% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 4% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 4% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 4% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 4% |
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 4 percent, with the NO outcome at 96 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-29 05:16 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.