Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?

Part of: Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.

Yes probability

14%

24h change

-3.0pp

7d change

-10.0pp

Volume

$123K

Resolves by

Sep 30, 2026

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

Other outcomes in this event

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?9%Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?3%

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.

Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-07-15 00:23 UTC. Trade on the venue itself: this page is research context, not an order book. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.