Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
Part of: When will Bitcoin hit $150k?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
Same question on Kalshi
Polymarket prices this at 4%, Kalshi at 4% (a 0.3pp gap). Gaps can reflect fees, resolution wording, settlement timing or thin liquidity on either venue.
Will Bitcoin be above $149,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? — Above $149,999.99
Resolution criteria
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title by 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API and Kalshi market data, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-07-15 00:23 UTC. Trade on the venue itself: this page is research context, not an order book. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.