Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Part of: Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.

Yes probability

20%

24h change

+0.5pp

7d change

+3.5pp

Volume

$102K

Resolves by

Dec 31, 2026

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

Other outcomes in this event

Will Qatar join the Abraham Accords before 2027?5%

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.

Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-07-15 00:23 UTC. Trade on the venue itself: this page is research context, not an order book. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.