Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?

Part of: What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.

Yes probability

24h change

-1.6pp

7d change

-2.1pp

Volume

$3K

Resolves by

Dec 31, 2026

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

Other outcomes in this event

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?5%Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?4%

Resolution criteria

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-07-15 00:23 UTC. Trade on the venue itself: this page is research context, not an order book. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.