Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

History in numbers

Since Jun 5, 2026, this market has traded between 9 percent (Jul 17, 2026) and 25 percent (Jun 5, 2026), across 2,886 recorded prices. The current price of 11 percent is level with where it stood 7 days ago (11 percent), and 5.5 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (16 percent).

Weekly closes

Market liquidity

The best bid for YES is 10 percent and the best ask is 11 percent, a spread of 1.0 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds no order on the bid side (the band sits inside the spread) and no order on the ask side (the band sits inside the spread). The band is 1 percent of the mid, here 0.10 cents either side, which is narrower than the distance from the mid to the best quote, so it measures nothing on this book. Resting at the best quotes instead: $1K at the best bid and $1K at the best ask.

A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.

Order book captured 2026-10-15 14:01 UTC.

Market details

Venues: Polymarket

How this market resolves

The market currently prices the YES outcome at 11 percent, with the NO outcome at 89 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

More macro markets

Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

Background reading

Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.

Cite this data

Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 2126461

Kresmion, "Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 2126461.

Link to this data (HTML):

<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31">Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>