Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Part of: Brazil Presidential Election. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.

Yes probability

25%

24h change

+1.4pp

7d change

+3.0pp

Volume

$7.4M

Resolves by

Oct 4, 2026

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

Other outcomes in this event

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?61%Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?10%Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?1%Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?1%Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?1%

Resolution criteria

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-07-15 00:23 UTC. Trade on the venue itself: this page is research context, not an order book. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.