PREDICTION MARKET ODDS / RESOLVED
Resolved NO
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Part of: Brazil Presidential Election. This market has settled. Every price on this page is a dated historical record.
"Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" resolved No; the market last priced it below 1% on Oct 5, 2026, and below 1% seven days earlier.
The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.
Probability path
Last recorded YES price of each day, Jul 14, 2026 to Oct 5, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.
From Jul 14, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from below 1% (Aug 27, 2026) to 2% (Jul 17, 2026), across 10,503 recorded prices.
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 20, 2026 | 1% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 0% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 0% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 0% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 0% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 0% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 0% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 0% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 0% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 0% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 0% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 0% |
How this market resolved
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Other settled outcomes in this event
Settled markets from the same event, with the venue's recorded outcome and settlement date.
More politics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Recently settled politics markets
Dated records of markets that have settled, newest first.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 601822
Kresmion, "Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-10-05, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-michelle-bolsonaro-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 601822.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-michelle-bolsonaro-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election">Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? (settled prediction market record) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, recorded by Kresmion. This market is settled, so the figures on this page are a historical record kept for research context, not an order book.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.