Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution. The settlement date is the venue's own close timestamp; the scheduled end is the date the market was listed to close, which can differ.

Probability path

Last recorded YES price of each day, Jun 18, 2026 to Oct 28, 2026. Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent.

From Jun 18, 2026, recorded YES prices ranged from below 1% (Oct 18, 2026) to 9% (Jun 18, 2026), across 11,587 recorded prices.

Weekly closes

How this market resolved

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Other settled outcomes in this event

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Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.

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Background reading

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Cite this data

Kresmion stored this market's YES price from the venue on a fixed capture schedule until settlement. The outcome is the venue's recorded resolution; the percentages are those stored prices, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 2589810

Kresmion, "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? (settled prediction market record)", data as of 2026-10-28, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324029. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 2589810.

Link to this data (HTML):

<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324029">Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? (settled prediction market record) (Kresmion)</a>