Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Polymarket traders priced "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?" at 50% as of Sep 22, 2026, 15:34 UTC, up from 37% a week earlier.

As of Sep 22, 2026, 15:34 UTC. Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 2589813. Method and limitations.

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

History in numbers

Since Jun 26, 2026, this market has traded between 18 percent (Jul 16, 2026) and 56 percent (Sep 18, 2026), across 3,432 recorded prices. The current price of 50 percent is 13.0 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (37 percent), and 25.0 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (25 percent).

Weekly closes

Market liquidity

The best bid for YES is 49 percent and the best ask is 50 percent, a spread of 1.0 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds $0 on the bid side and $0 on the ask side.

A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.

Order book captured 2026-09-22 15:29 UTC.

Market details

Venues: Polymarket

How this market resolves

The market currently prices the YES outcome at 50 percent, with the NO outcome at 50 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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Background reading

Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.

Cite this data

Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 2589813

Kresmion, "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-09-22, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324032. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 2589813.