Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Part of: Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 29, 2026, Polymarket prices "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?" at 1 percent YES, on $4.4M of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jun 1, 2026, this market has traded between 1 percent (Jul 30, 2026) and 9 percent (Jun 1, 2026), across 1,234 recorded prices. The current price of 1 percent is 0.6 percentage points below where it stood 7 days ago (2 percent), and 1.3 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (2 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jun 1, 2026 | 8% |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 2% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 3% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 2% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 2% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 2% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 1% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 1% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 1 percent, with the NO outcome at 99 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-29 06:29 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.