Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Part of: Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 29, 2026, Polymarket prices "Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?" at 4 percent YES, on $37.7M of lifetime volume.
One message when it happens. Nothing else. No account needed.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 14, 2026, this market has traded between 3 percent (Aug 18, 2026) and 8 percent (Jul 14, 2026), across 8,988 recorded prices. The current price of 4 percent is 0.2 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (4 percent), and 1.7 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (6 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | 6% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 6% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 6% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 6% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 5% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 4% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 4% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 4 percent, with the NO outcome at 96 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
More other markets
Live markets in the same category, priced by the same venue.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Get the smart money brief
Insider trades, 13F flows, and cross asset positioning reads with the source on every number, in your inbox when there is something in the data, or live on Telegram. Free, no account.
No fixed schedule: it goes out when the data has something in it. Unsubscribe anytime.
Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-29 05:37 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.