Research Notes · Theme
Positioning
Kresmion Research notes on positioning. Independent, source-attributed, information-only.
- September 4, 2026August Payrolls Printed 162,000 Against a 56,000 Consensus. The September Hike Leg Moved to 52.5 Percent and Passed the Hold.
- August 2, 2026The Bet on a Stronger Dollar Was the Most Crowded in Three Years of Data. Then the US Bought Yen.
- July 20, 2026The Three Big Index ETFs Are All in Negative Dealer Gamma. The Mega-Cap Stocks That Dominate Them Are Not.
- July 12, 2026A Prediction Market Now Prices a July Fed Hike at 20 Percent. Speculators Just Flipped Net Short the Euro.
- July 11, 2026Speculators Have Cut Their S&P 500 Short Position to a One Year Low. A Prediction Market Is Pricing the Same Calm.
- July 9, 2026Oil Jumped More Than 4 Percent When the Iran Ceasefire Collapsed. Speculators Went In With One of Their Smallest Positions of the Year.
- July 8, 2026Ether Rose Almost 8 Percent This Week. One Fund Did Most of the ETF Buying, and the Largest Wallets Sent the Most Ether to Exchanges in a Month.
- July 7, 2026Speculators Built a Record Copper Long Into the US Tariff Decision. They Have Been Unwinding It for a Month.
- July 6, 2026Five Chip Companies Show Concurrent Insider Sell Clusters, Every One Including the CEO or CFO. The Sector Has Not Shown a Single Buy Cluster Since May.
- July 5, 2026Speculators Are the Most Net Short the British Pound in a Year. They Built the Bet in a Single Week.
- July 4, 2026Solana, Ether and Cardano Have All Outrun Bitcoin This Week. The Money Behind Them Is Not Coming From the ETFs.
- July 2, 2026Bitcoin's Futures Speculators Are Near a One Year Net Long Extreme. Its US ETFs Just Posted Five Straight Days of Outflows.
- July 1, 2026Options Dealers Are Positioned to Dampen the S&P and the Nasdaq. The Russell 2000 Is the One Index They Are Still Positioned to Amplify.
- June 25, 2026Kresmion's Cross Asset Regime Turned Risk-Off Today. Credit Spreads and Recession Bets Have Not.
- June 24, 2026Speculators Are the Most Crowded Into Natural Gas in Over a Year. Storage Sits Nearly 6 Percent Above Normal.
- June 22, 2026Berkshire Tripled Its Alphabet Stake in Greg Abel's First Quarter. Warren Buffett Spent Years Calling It One of His Mistakes.
- June 21, 2026Bridgewater and Appaloosa Both Roughly Doubled Their Amazon Stakes Last Quarter. Most of Their Peers Were Cutting.
- June 20, 2026Bitcoin Futures Speculators Are Crowded Long at a Six Week High. Spot ETFs, Whales, and the Options Desk Are Leaning the Other Way.
- June 19, 2026Applied Materials Is Up 75% This Year. Five Insiders, Including the CEO and CTO, Just Sold $29.6 Million.
- June 17, 2026The Market Prices Today's Fed Decision at 98%. The Real Event Is Warsh's First Dot Plot.
- June 16, 2026Five Funds Opened New Meta Positions in Q1. Five Others Trimmed Theirs.
- June 14, 2026Six Funds Added to Broadcom in Q1. D. E. Shaw's Stake Jumped 127% to $2 Billion.
- June 13, 2026Risk-Off Unwound in Three Days Before Warsh's First Fed Meeting
- June 12, 2026Oracle Booked $638 Billion of AI Demand. The Stock Fell 8.5% the Next Day.
- June 10, 2026Bitcoin ETFs Shed $3.4 Billion in Twelve Sessions. Futures Traders Are Still Crowded Long.
- June 9, 2026A Week Before Warsh's First Fed Meeting, Bitcoin Sits at 13.8% Odds of $110k
- June 8, 2026Every Macro Factor Turned Negative This Week. A Hot Jobs Report Was the Trigger.
- June 1, 2026Risk Appetite Rebounded in May. It Skipped Bitcoin.
- May 31, 2026Risk Comes Out of the System: Positioning Capitulates as the Oil Shock Fades