A Week Before Warsh's First Fed Meeting, Bitcoin Sits at 13.8% Odds of $110k

Cross-venue prediction markets price Bitcoin at a 13.8% chance of finishing 2026 above $110,000, one week before Kevin Warsh chairs his first Fed meeting. The same markets give it 8.5% odds of clearing $130,000, with Bitcoin trading near $62,600.

Those are merged, volume-weighted readings across Kalshi and Polymarket, the two venues Kresmion tracks. They sit alongside a cross-asset regime that remains risk-off and speculative futures positioning that is still crowded to a 52-week net-long extreme. This note frames what the data shows going into the June 16-17 FOMC, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh. It is information, not advice.

Key takeaways

What the prediction markets are pricing

Kresmion merges Kalshi and Polymarket into a single cross-venue consensus, volume-weighted across the two books. On June 9 that consensus put Bitcoin at a 13.8% probability of finishing 2026 above $110,000, drawn from roughly $1.47 million of combined open interest, and 8.5% above $130,000, from roughly $1.37 million. Both readings were close to flat over the prior days. With Bitcoin near $62,600 (CoinGecko), each threshold sits well above the current price. No Fed-decision question reached a cross-venue merge, so there is no Kresmion cross-venue read on the June meeting itself. You can follow the ongoing Bitcoin notes on the Bitcoin research-notes page.

The cross-asset regime: risk-off, with one factor turning

Kresmion's macro-regime model reads Neutral with a smoothed score of -0.2331 and HIGH conviction at 75%. The score base-rated up from a -0.3389 trough on June 7, and conviction eased from 100% earlier in the week as the growth factor flipped to +0.34, the lone positive of the four. Liquidity (-0.28), risk-appetite (-0.34) and volatility (-0.55) remain negative, with volatility the largest drag.

Credit conditions are benign in the data. High-yield spreads are 276 bps and investment-grade 74 bps (FRED), the 2s10s curve is positive at +41 bps, and the Chicago Fed's financial-conditions index reads -0.49, which is accommodative. The methodology behind the four-factor score is documented on the methodology page.

Positioning versus price

The reading worth noting is the gap between positioning and pricing. Speculative Bitcoin futures sat at a net-long 52-week extreme, +2.08 sigma, as of the June 2 CFTC Commitments of Traders report, even as cross-venue markets price low odds of a year-end move above $110k. Crowded positioning and cautious year-end pricing are pointing in different directions.

On-chain, the picture is muted. Over the last seven days the large majority of tracked Bitcoin exchange volume was same-exchange self-transfer, which is internal rebalancing rather than genuine cross-party flow. After stripping that noise, the week's single largest genuine exchange deposit on Kresmion-tracked wallets was in Solana, not Bitcoin.

Policy context: the first Warsh FOMC

Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Federal Reserve chair on May 22, 2026 (Federal Reserve), and the June 16-17 FOMC is his first as chair. The policy rate sits at 3.50% to 3.75%. The May employment report showed payrolls up 172,000 against a consensus near 80,000, with unemployment at 4.3% (BLS), a firmer print than expected. Multiple outlets reported a multi-week run of US spot-Bitcoin-ETF redemptions through early June (CoinDesk). Kresmion's own ETF-flow feed is excluded from this note pending a data review, so no Kresmion ETF figure is asserted here.

What to watch

• The June 16-17 FOMC, Warsh's first as chair, and the language around the policy path.
• Whether the regime's growth factor holds its positive turn or the score resumes lower.
• Whether cross-venue Bitcoin year-end odds move off 13.8% and 8.5% as the meeting approaches.

For the prior session's read, see the June 8 note.

Frequently asked questions

What does the 13.8% figure mean?

It is the merged, volume-weighted probability across Kalshi and Polymarket that Bitcoin finishes 2026 above $110,000. Kresmion combines the two venues into one cross-venue consensus. On June 9 it read 13.8% for the $110k line and 8.5% for the $130k line.

What is the current macro regime?

Kresmion's cross-asset regime model reads Neutral with a smoothed score of -0.23 and HIGH conviction. Three of four factors, liquidity, risk-appetite and volatility, are negative; growth is the lone positive at +0.34. The score recovered from a -0.34 trough on June 7.

Why is the Federal Reserve meeting relevant?

The June 16-17 FOMC is the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, sworn in on May 22, 2026. The policy rate is 3.50% to 3.75%. A firmer-than-expected May jobs report, payrolls up 172,000 against a consensus near 80,000, frames the data going into the decision.

Does Kresmion provide buy or sell recommendations?

No. Kresmion surfaces events and data with source attribution and historical context. This note is information, not investment advice.

Sources

• Kresmion cross-venue prediction-market consensus (Kalshi + Polymarket), as of 2026-06-09.
• Kresmion macro-regime model.
• Kresmion COT positioning monitor (CFTC Commitments of Traders, report dated 2026-06-02).
• Bitcoin spot price: CoinGecko.
• Treasury yields and credit spreads: FRED (DGS10, DGS2, BAMLH0A0HYM2, BAMLC0A0CM, NFCI).
• Kevin Warsh sworn in as Fed chair: Federal Reserve, May 22, 2026.
• May 2026 employment report: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 5, 2026.
• Reported US spot-Bitcoin-ETF redemptions: CoinDesk.

Published by Kresmion Research.