Research Notes · Theme

Prediction Markets

Kresmion Research notes on prediction markets. Independent, source-attributed, information-only.

• August 5, 2026
  There Is a Riskless Trade Sitting Next to Polymarket's Bitcoin Ladder. It Pays 0.37 Percent a Year Against a 4.02 Percent Treasury Bill.
• July 31, 2026
  The Options Market Prices a Near-Term Bitcoin Dip at Nearly 40 Percent. The Betting Crowd Puts It at 13.
• July 30, 2026
  Apple Retook the Title of World's Largest Company From NVIDIA. The Swing Was an 8 Percent NVIDIA Slide, Not an Apple Surge.
• July 28, 2026
  The Market Prices a One in Four Chance the Fed Raises Rates on Wednesday. Economists Still Say No Change.
• July 15, 2026
  Two Prediction Markets Price Bitcoin's Chance of Reaching $100,000 This Year. One Says 14 Percent, the Other 9.
• June 29, 2026
  Two Independent Betting Markets Quietly Agree on Bitcoin's Year End. The Most Likely Outcome Sits Below Where It Trades Now.