PREDICTION MARKETS / US MIDTERMS, NOV 3 2026
2026 midterms: what the markets price
Polymarket prices Democratic control of the Senate at 64.5% and of the House at 93.5%, as of Oct 3, 2026, 14:30 UTC.
Senate control after Nov 3
Captured 14:30 UTC| Leg | Polymarket |
|---|---|
| Dem YES | 64.5 64.0 / 65.0 |
| Rep YES | 35.5 35.0 / 36.0 |
Prices are mids of the YES book, bid / ask below each. Dem full record · Rep full record
House control after Nov 3
Captured 14:30 UTC| Leg | Polymarket |
|---|---|
| Dem YES | 93.5 93.0 / 94.0 |
| Rep YES | 6.5 6.0 / 7.0 |
Prices are mids of the YES book, bid / ask below each. Dem full record · Rep full record
Balance of power, both chambers
5 separate Polymarket markets; YES prices sum to 100.2, bar widths scaled to 100.Race board
Every Senate, governor and House race market recorded by Kresmion, closest to 50 first, then by volume. Dem YES is shaded blue above 50 and amber below. A race with one stored leg shows n/a for the other: the legs are separate markets and one is never derived from the other. 7d is the Dem leg, or the named leg where no party leg is stored. Depth 1% is the bid / ask dollar depth within 1% of the mid from an order book recorded in the last 6 hours, n/a otherwise; a side reads in spread when 1% of the mid is narrower than the gap to that side's best quote (a low-priced leg), so no order can rest inside the band. A race whose last capture is older than 90 minutes shows its capture time. Markets listed on the venue and recorded by Kresmion; races the venue has not listed are absent.
| Race | Dem YES | Rep YES | 7d | Bid / ask | Depth 1% | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 43.0 | 57.0 | +1.5pp | 42.0 / 44.0 | in spread / in spread | $709K |
| Maine | 59.5 | 40.5 | -5.0pp | 59.0 / 60.0 | $659 / $2K | $2.1M |
| Ohio | 60.5 | 39.5 | +3.0pp | 60.0 / 61.0 | $4K / $4K | $1.0M |
| Kansas | 37.5 | 62.5 | +8.0pp | 37.0 / 38.0 | in spread / in spread | $721K |
| Texas | 67.5 | 33.5 | +6.0pp | 67.0 / 68.0 | $53 / $389 | $1.9M |
| Alaska Peltola 71.5 · Sullivan 27.5 · Darden 0.1 · 4 more | n/a | n/a | -1.0pp Peltola | 71.0 / 72.0 | $233 / $505 | $1.1M |
| Michigan | 72.5 | 27.5 | +2.0pp | 72.0 / 73.0 | $5K / $3K | $1.3M |
| New Hampshire | 86.5 | 13.5 | +1.0pp | 86.0 / 87.0 | $832 / $2K | $296K |
| South Carolina | 12.5 | 86.5 | -1.0pp | 12.0 / 13.0 | in spread / in spread | $547K |
| Minnesota | 90.5 | 10.5 | n/a | 90.0 / 91.0 | $90 / $11K | $145K |
| Mississippi | 9.0 | 90.5 | +0.5pp | 8.0 / 10.0 | n/a | $126K |
| Florida | 8.5 | 91.5 | n/a | 8.0 / 9.0 | in spread / in spread | $159K |
| Arkansas | 6.6 | 93.3 | n/a | 6.2 / 6.9 | in spread / in spread | $32K |
| Louisiana | 6.5 | 93.0 | 0.0pp | 6.0 / 7.0 | in spread / in spread | $47K |
| North Carolina | 95.5 | 4.5 | +1.0pp | 95.0 / 96.0 | n/a | $214K |
| Georgia | 97.2 | 2.9 | +2.2pp | 97.0 / 97.3 | $305 / $2K | $205K |
| Tennessee | 2.8 | 96.9 | -0.2pp | 2.4 / 3.2 | in spread / in spread | $30K |
| Kentucky | 2.8 | 96.5 | n/a | 1.5 / 4.0 | in spread / in spread | $37K |
| Wyoming | 2.5 | 97.5 | n/a | 2.2 / 2.8 | n/a | $19K |
| New Mexico | 97.5 | 1.6 | n/a | 97.1 / 98.0 | n/a | $26K |
| Virginia | 97.5 | 1.8 | n/a | 97.1 / 98.0 | n/a | $24K |
| New Jersey | 97.7 | 2.9 | +1.1pp | 96.5 / 98.8 | n/a | $21K |
| Oregon | 97.9 | 2.0 | n/a | 97.4 / 98.3 | $102 / $2K | $7K |
| Massachusetts | 97.9 | 1.8 | n/a | 97.7 / 98.1 | n/a | $49K |
| Illinois | 98.0 | 2.2 | n/a | 97.3 / 98.7 | $143 / $30 | $34K |
| Colorado | 98.0 | 1.8 | +0.2pp | 97.0 / 99.1 | in spread / in spread | $51K |
| Alabama | 1.7 | 97.0 | n/a | 0.4 / 2.9 | in spread / in spread | $13K |
| Oklahoma | 1.5 | 98.4 | n/a | 0.7 / 2.3 | n/a | $26K |
| Delaware | 98.7 | 1.4 | n/a | 98.0 / 99.3 | n/a | $32K |
| West Virginia | 1.3 | 98.5 | n/a | 0.7 / 1.9 | in spread / in spread | $16K |
| Rhode Island | 99.3 | 0.8 | n/a | 98.8 / 99.8 | n/a | $27K |
| Montana Ind 8.3 | 0.4 | 91.5 | n/a | 0.2 / 0.6 | in spread / in spread | $145K |
| South Dakota Bengs 4.6 | 0.1 | 93.8 | n/a | 0.1 / 0.2 | n/a | $49K |
| Nebraska Ind 25.5 | 0.1 | 73.5 | n/a | n/a / 0.2 | n/a | $490K |
| Idaho Achilles 5.3 | 0.1 | 94.8 | n/a | n/a / 0.1 | n/a | $115K |
| Race | Dem YES | Rep YES | 7d | Bid / ask | Depth 1% | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | 52.5 | 47.0 | n/a | 51.0 / 54.0 | in spread / in spread | $245K |
| Georgia | 45.5 | 54.5 | -9.0pp | 45.0 / 46.0 | in spread / in spread | $145K |
| Ohio | 65.0 | 34.5 | n/a | 64.0 / 66.0 | in spread / in spread | $273K |
| Kansas | 27.5 | 73.5 | n/a | 27.0 / 28.0 | n/a | $47K |
| Oregon | 73.5 | 27.5 | -13.0pp | 73.0 / 74.0 | in spread / in spread | $73K |
| Texas | 26.0 | 74.4 | +4.5pp | 25.0 / 27.0 | in spread / in spread | $402K |
| Alaska Kreiss-Tomkins 75.1 · Wilson 18.0 · Begich 1.1 · 19 more | n/a | n/a | -2.4pp Kreiss-Tomkins | 74.3 / 75.9 | in spread / in spread | $1.4M |
| Florida | 23.5 | 77.5 | +2.0pp | 23.0 / 24.0 | in spread / in spread | $253K |
| Vermont | 20.2 | 78.5 | +4.6pp | 19.7 / 20.7 | in spread / in spread | $164K |
| Wisconsin | 81.5 | 18.5 | -4.0pp | 81.0 / 82.0 | $6K / $48 | $701K |
| Iowa | 84.5 | 14.5 | n/a | 84.0 / 85.0 | n/a | $112K |
| Arizona | 88.5 | 10.5 | n/a | 88.0 / 89.0 | $8K / $4K | $89K |
| Nebraska | 9.5 | 90.5 | n/a | 9.0 / 10.0 | in spread / in spread | $19K |
| Oklahoma | 7.5 | 92.5 | n/a | 7.0 / 8.0 | in spread / in spread | $32K |
| Alabama | 7.0 | 92.4 | n/a | 6.9 / 7.1 | n/a | $25K |
| Tennessee | 5.4 | 95.0 | +2.5pp | 4.2 / 6.6 | in spread / in spread | $15K |
| Maine | 95.2 | 4.3 | n/a | 94.7 / 95.6 | $471 / $317 | $36K |
| South Carolina | 4.7 | 94.5 | n/a | 4.5 / 4.9 | in spread / in spread | $19K |
| Michigan Ind 0.1 | 95.5 | 4.5 | n/a | 94.3 / 96.7 | in spread / in spread | $244K |
| New York | 95.5 | 4.5 | n/a | 95.0 / 96.0 | n/a | $127K |
| Minnesota | 95.5 | 4.5 | n/a | 95.0 / 96.0 | $2K / $2K | $88K |
| New Mexico | 95.5 | 4.5 | n/a | 95.0 / 96.0 | n/a | $42K |
| California Becerra 95.9 · Hilton 4.0 · Steyer 0.1 · 20 more | n/a | n/a | +0.7pp Becerra | 95.8 / 96.0 | $11K / $3K | $41.6M |
| New Hampshire | 4.0 | 96.0 | n/a | 3.1 / 5.0 | n/a | $41K |
| Massachusetts | 96.3 | 3.1 | n/a | 96.1 / 96.4 | $406 / $669 | $96K |
| Colorado | 96.5 | 1.8 | n/a | 96.0 / 97.0 | n/a | $17K |
| Maryland | 96.5 | 1.3 | n/a | 96.0 / 97.1 | n/a | $23K |
| Connecticut | 96.5 | 2.5 | n/a | 96.0 / 97.1 | n/a | $9K |
| Rhode Island Ind 0.9 | 96.8 | 1.8 | n/a | 95.7 / 97.8 | n/a | $70K |
| Pennsylvania | 96.9 | 2.6 | n/a | 96.1 / 97.7 | n/a | $50K |
| Illinois | 97.0 | 2.5 | n/a | 95.9 / 98.0 | n/a | $12K |
| South Dakota | 2.9 | 96.7 | +0.4pp | 2.2 / 3.6 | in spread / in spread | $27K |
| Wyoming | 2.7 | 96.8 | n/a | 2.4 / 3.0 | n/a | $12K |
| Arkansas | 2.7 | 96.8 | n/a | 1.8 / 3.6 | n/a | $11K |
| Hawaii | 97.5 | 1.2 | n/a | 96.6 / 98.5 | n/a | $16K |
| Idaho | 2.1 | 98.3 | n/a | 1.9 / 2.4 | n/a | $27K |
| Race | Dem YES | Rep YES | 7d | Bid / ask | Depth 1% | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MI-04 | 48.5 | n/a | 0.0pp | 48.0 / 49.0 | in spread / in spread | $5K |
| VA-01 | n/a | 53.5 | -6.5pp Rep | 53.0 / 54.0 | $53 / $176 | $20K |
| MI-07 | 56.5 | n/a | 0.0pp | 56.0 / 57.0 | $927 / $634 | $22K |
| NC-01 | 61.5 | n/a | -1.0pp | 61.0 / 62.0 | $112 / $202 | $1K |
| TX-23 | n/a | 63.5 | +2.0pp Rep | 63.0 / 64.0 | $1K / $1K | $42K |
| FL-14 | 63.5 | n/a | -4.0pp | 63.0 / 64.0 | $814 / $228 | $27K |
| PA-01 | n/a | 65.5 | +1.0pp Rep | 65.0 / 66.0 | n/a | $9K |
| MI-10 | 65.5 | n/a | 0.0pp | 65.0 / 66.0 | $1K / $1K | $5K |
| MT-01 | n/a | 67.5 | -1.0pp Rep | 67.0 / 68.0 | $607 / $1K | $8K |
| SC-01 | n/a | 71.5 | +1.0pp Rep | 70.0 / 73.0 | in spread / in spread | $15K |
| KY-06 | n/a | 72.5 | -2.0pp Rep | 72.0 / 73.0 | $360 / $297 | $24K |
| AL-02 | 26.5 | n/a | -4.0pp | 26.0 / 27.0 | in spread / in spread | $40K |
| IA-03 | 76.5 | 22.5 | 0.0pp | 76.0 / 77.0 | $637 / $151 | $11K |
| NC-09 | n/a | 77.0 | +1.5pp Rep | 76.0 / 78.0 | in spread / in spread | $15K |
| TX-15 | 78.5 | n/a | +6.0pp | 78.0 / 79.0 | $183 / $250 | $17K |
| AZ-01 | 79.5 | 20.0 | +3.0pp | 79.0 / 80.0 | n/a | $63K |
| AZ-06 | 82.5 | 17.5 | 0.0pp | 82.0 / 83.0 | in spread / in spread | $12K |
| AZ-08 | n/a | 82.5 | -1.5pp Rep | 82.0 / 83.0 | n/a | $5K |
| NY-21 | 17.5 | n/a | -3.0pp | 17.0 / 18.0 | n/a | $36K |
| NC-07 | 17.5 | n/a | +3.0pp | 17.0 / 18.0 | in spread / in spread | $14K |
Show the other 115 House districts
| Race | Dem YES | Rep YES | 7d | Bid / ask | Depth 1% | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE-01 | 16.5 | n/a | +2.0pp | 16.0 / 17.0 | in spread / in spread | $23K |
| NC-13 | n/a | 83.5 | 0.0pp Rep | 83.0 / 84.0 | n/a | $4K |
| TX-34 | n/a | 16.5 | +1.0pp Rep | 16.0 / 17.0 | in spread / in spread | $4K |
| FL-16 | 15.5 | n/a | -1.0pp | 15.0 / 16.0 | n/a | $16K |
| IN-05 | n/a | 84.5 | -0.5pp Rep | 84.0 / 85.0 | n/a | $14K |
| FL-12 | n/a | 86.0 | -0.5pp Rep | 85.0 / 87.0 | in spread / in spread | $26K |
| TN-09 | 14.0 | n/a | +2.5pp | 13.0 / 15.0 | n/a | $21K |
| OH-10 | n/a | 86.5 | +4.0pp Rep | 86.0 / 87.0 | $151 / $387 | $28K |
| IA-01 | n/a | 13.5 | -3.5pp Rep | 12.0 / 15.0 | in spread / in spread | $14K |
| NC-05 | 13.1 | n/a | +0.8pp | 12.6 / 13.6 | n/a | $15K |
| OH-01 | 87.0 | n/a | -1.3pp | 86.8 / 87.2 | $316 / $392 | $21K |
| MD-01 | n/a | 89.0 | -1.0pp Rep | 88.0 / 90.0 | n/a | $35K |
| NJ-07 | 89.5 | n/a | n/a | 89.0 / 90.0 | $263 / $225 | $22K |
| SC-02 | n/a | 89.5 | -2.0pp Rep | 89.0 / 90.0 | $300 / $461 | $21K |
| MN-06 | n/a | 90.5 | +0.5pp Rep | 90.0 / 91.0 | $169 / $59 | $26K |
| TX-38 | n/a | 90.5 | -1.0pp Rep | 90.0 / 91.0 | $66 / $18 | $18K |
| AZ-05 | n/a | 91.5 | 0.0pp Rep | 91.0 / 92.0 | $821 / $240 | $21K |
| NE-02 | n/a | 8.4 | +1.9pp Rep | 8.1 / 8.7 | in spread / in spread | $9K |
| GA-12 | 7.5 | n/a | -3.0pp | 7.0 / 8.0 | in spread / in spread | $24K |
| TX-10 | 7.5 | n/a | -0.5pp | 7.0 / 8.0 | in spread / in spread | $22K |
| PA-16 | 6.3 | 91.5 | -1.6pp | 6.2 / 6.4 | in spread / in spread | $41K |
| TX-36 | 6.3 | n/a | 0.0pp | 6.2 / 6.3 | $10 / $10 | $22K |
| GA-02 | 94.0 | 6.3 | +1.5pp | 93.0 / 95.0 | in spread / in spread | $27K |
| NV-01 | 94.0 | n/a | -0.5pp | 93.9 / 94.1 | $3K / $585 | $16K |
| MN-02 | 94.0 | n/a | +1.0pp | 94.0 / 94.1 | $6K / $703 | $15K |
| UT-04 | n/a | 94.3 | -0.7pp Rep | 94.2 / 94.3 | $6K / $800 | $23K |
| WI-07 | n/a | 94.5 | 0.0pp Rep | 94.0 / 95.0 | $371 / $163 | $28K |
| WI-06 | n/a | 94.5 | 0.0pp Rep | 94.0 / 95.0 | n/a | $21K |
| OR-04 | 94.5 | n/a | +0.5pp | 94.0 / 95.0 | $227 / $5 | $16K |
| MD-02 | 94.5 | n/a | -1.0pp | 94.0 / 95.0 | $307 / $5 | $13K |
| CA-27 | 94.5 | n/a | 0.0pp | 94.0 / 95.0 | $23 / $67 | $6K |
| NV-03 | 94.5 | n/a | +2.0pp | 94.0 / 95.0 | $366 / $67 | $5K |
| GA-07 | 5.5 | 93.5 | -1.5pp | 5.0 / 6.0 | in spread / in spread | $41K |
| FL-19 | 5.5 | n/a | 0.0pp | 5.0 / 6.0 | in spread / in spread | $16K |
| NY-22 | n/a | 5.5 | -0.5pp Rep | 5.0 / 6.0 | in spread / in spread | $11K |
| TX-06 | n/a | 94.8 | -1.1pp Rep | 94.7 / 94.9 | $1K / $3K | $37K |
| CA-43 | 94.9 | n/a | -1.7pp | 93.1 / 96.7 | n/a | $11K |
| TX-31 | n/a | 95.0 | 0.0pp Rep | 94.0 / 96.0 | n/a | $32K |
| FL-08 | 4.9 | n/a | +0.8pp | 4.2 / 5.5 | in spread / in spread | $18K |
| CA-31 | 95.5 | n/a | +0.5pp | 94.0 / 96.9 | in spread / in spread | $8K |
| SC-03 | n/a | 95.5 | +0.5pp Rep | 95.0 / 96.0 | n/a | $30K |
| LA-03 | n/a | 95.5 | 0.0pp Rep | 95.0 / 96.0 | $115 / $32 | $24K |
| TN-03 | n/a | 95.5 | +1.0pp Rep | 94.0 / 97.0 | in spread / in spread | $21K |
| CA-26 | 95.5 | n/a | +0.5pp | 95.0 / 96.0 | $23 / $19 | $17K |
| IA-04 | 4.5 | 95.0 | -1.0pp | 4.0 / 5.0 | in spread / in spread | $44K |
| MA-02 | n/a | 4.5 | 0.0pp Rep | 4.0 / 5.0 | in spread / in spread | $39K |
| KS-03 | n/a | 4.5 | 0.0pp Rep | 4.0 / 5.0 | in spread / in spread | $22K |
| TX-13 | 4.5 | n/a | 0.0pp | 4.0 / 5.0 | in spread / in spread | $16K |
| CA-42 | 95.5 | n/a | +0.2pp | 94.3 / 96.8 | in spread / in spread | $17K |
| MD-06 | 95.6 | 3.1 | +1.1pp | 94.3 / 96.9 | in spread / in spread | $35K |
| MA-06 | 95.6 | 3.0 | -0.1pp | 94.6 / 96.6 | in spread / in spread | $27K |
| TN-08 | n/a | 95.6 | +0.2pp Rep | 95.0 / 96.2 | $514 / $140 | $23K |
| CT-01 | 95.6 | n/a | +0.1pp | 94.1 / 97.1 | in spread / in spread | $3K |
| HI-01 | 95.8 | 3.5 | +0.1pp | 94.6 / 96.9 | n/a | $41K |
| WA-10 | 95.8 | n/a | +1.3pp | 94.1 / 97.5 | n/a | $18K |
| UT-02 | 4.2 | 93.5 | -0.3pp | 2.2 / 6.1 | in spread / in spread | $22K |
| NM-01 | 96.0 | n/a | +1.5pp | 94.3 / 97.6 | in spread / in spread | $21K |
| IL-09 | 96.0 | n/a | +1.5pp | 95.0 / 97.0 | n/a | $18K |
| FL-24 | 96.0 | 2.3 | +0.1pp | 95.8 / 96.3 | n/a | $34K |
| TN-04 | n/a | 96.2 | -2.2pp Rep | 95.2 / 97.2 | in spread / in spread | $39K |
| OR-06 | 96.2 | 3.1 | +0.1pp | 95.7 / 96.7 | n/a | $27K |
| MS-04 | n/a | 96.2 | +0.3pp Rep | 95.3 / 97.1 | n/a | $26K |
| PA-09 | n/a | 96.3 | +0.2pp Rep | 94.5 / 98.1 | n/a | $14K |
| CA-46 | n/a | 3.7 | -0.8pp Rep | 3.2 / 4.2 | in spread / in spread | $46K |
| AL-05 | 3.7 | n/a | +0.5pp | 3.1 / 4.3 | n/a | $35K |
| WI-05 | 3.6 | 96.2 | -0.3pp | 3.2 / 4.1 | n/a | $59K |
| OK-04 | 3.6 | n/a | -0.3pp | 3.4 / 3.9 | in spread / in spread | $16K |
| KY-01 | 3.5 | n/a | 0.0pp | 2.4 / 4.7 | in spread / in spread | $17K |
| IL-16 | 3.5 | n/a | +2.9pp | 3.1 / 3.9 | in spread / in spread | $39K |
| NY-16 | n/a | 3.5 | +2.7pp Rep | 1.2 / 5.8 | n/a | $11K |
| CA-15 | 96.6 | n/a | -0.1pp | 95.4 / 97.8 | n/a | $95K |
| PA-03 | 96.6 | n/a | +0.4pp | 95.6 / 97.6 | $60 / $39 | $20K |
| AR-04 | 3.4 | n/a | +0.9pp | 1.8 / 4.9 | in spread / in spread | $11K |
| NY-07 | 96.9 | 0.7 | -0.3pp | 95.7 / 98.0 | n/a | $31K |
| NC-08 | 3.1 | n/a | +0.1pp | 2.4 / 3.9 | in spread / in spread | $16K |
| NY-25 | 96.9 | 2.5 | -0.6pp | 96.3 / 97.5 | $154 / $216 | $42K |
| CA-50 | n/a | 3.1 | -0.4pp Rep | 3.0 / 3.2 | in spread / in spread | $30K |
| IL-12 | 3.1 | 95.5 | +0.5pp | 1.9 / 4.3 | n/a | $25K |
| SC-06 | n/a | 3.1 | +1.7pp Rep | 1.8 / 4.4 | in spread / in spread | $25K |
| OR-01 | 97.0 | n/a | +1.2pp | 95.5 / 98.4 | n/a | $11K |
| MS-02 | 97.0 | n/a | -0.1pp | 96.1 / 97.9 | n/a | $27K |
| CA-17 | 97.0 | n/a | +0.4pp | 96.3 / 97.8 | $107 / $57 | $13K |
| KY-05 | n/a | 97.1 | n/a | 97.0 / 97.2 | $3K / $6K | $39K |
| CA-36 | n/a | 2.8 | n/a | 2.0 / 3.6 | in spread / in spread | $80K |
| TX-05 | 2.8 | n/a | +1.6pp | 1.3 / 4.2 | in spread / in spread | $48K |
| IL-07 | 97.3 | n/a | +0.6pp | 95.7 / 98.8 | n/a | $12K |
| GA-13 | n/a | 2.5 | 0.0pp Rep | 0.8 / 4.3 | in spread / in spread | $19K |
| MD-04 | 97.5 | n/a | +0.1pp | 97.1 / 97.9 | n/a | $21K |
| FL-20 | n/a | 2.5 | -0.9pp Rep | 0.9 / 4.1 | n/a | $15K |
| CA-24 | 97.5 | n/a | +0.8pp | 97.1 / 98.0 | $350 / $7 | $34K |
| CA-32 | n/a | 2.4 | +1.9pp Rep | 0.9 / 3.9 | n/a | $16K |
| TX-30 | n/a | 2.3 | -0.2pp Rep | 1.6 / 2.9 | in spread / in spread | $43K |
| VA-08 | n/a | 2.3 | -0.2pp Rep | 1.7 / 2.8 | in spread / in spread | $28K |
| GA-06 | n/a | 2.2 | -0.1pp Rep | 0.7 / 3.7 | in spread / in spread | $18K |
| CA-51 | n/a | 2.1 | +0.1pp Rep | 1.1 / 3.2 | in spread / in spread | $16K |
| WA-01 | n/a | 2.1 | +0.3pp Rep | 0.6 / 3.6 | in spread / in spread | $21K |
| GA-04 | 98.0 | n/a | -0.4pp | 97.4 / 98.5 | $264 / $78 | $30K |
| MA-07 | n/a | 1.9 | +0.1pp Rep | 1.1 / 2.8 | in spread / in spread | $19K |
| MS-03 | n/a | 98.0 | +0.1pp Rep | 97.1 / 99.0 | n/a | $23K |
| AR-01 | 1.9 | n/a | +0.7pp | 0.7 / 3.1 | n/a | $10K |
| CA-13 | n/a | 1.8 | -2.0pp Rep | 0.7 / 3.0 | in spread / in spread | $17K |
| AZ-03 | 98.2 | n/a | 0.0pp | 98.1 / 98.2 | $885 / $24 | $33K |
| CO-01 | n/a | 1.8 | -0.1pp Rep | 1.5 / 2.1 | in spread / in spread | $27K |
| MA-08 | n/a | 1.7 | -0.1pp Rep | 0.5 / 2.8 | in spread / in spread | $13K |
| PA-05 | 98.4 | n/a | 0.0pp | 97.1 / 99.6 | n/a | $13K |
| OK-02 | 1.6 | 98.4 | 0.0pp | 1.2 / 2.0 | in spread / in spread | $33K |
| CA-44 | n/a | 1.6 | 0.0pp Rep | 1.5 / 1.6 | in spread / in spread | $25K |
| CA-11 | 98.5 | n/a | 0.0pp | 97.3 / 99.7 | in spread / in spread | $15K |
| NY-08 | n/a | 1.4 | -0.4pp Rep | 0.3 / 2.5 | n/a | $19K |
| VA-11 | n/a | 1.4 | +1.0pp Rep | 0.3 / 2.5 | in spread / in spread | $12K |
| NC-02 | n/a | 1.3 | -2.5pp Rep | 0.9 / 1.6 | in spread / in spread | $10K |
| AL-07 | n/a | 0.7 | -1.1pp Rep | 0.4 / 1.0 | in spread / in spread | $58K |
| AL-03 | 0.4 | n/a | +0.2pp | 0.4 / 0.5 | in spread / in spread | $20K |
| WY-AL | 0.3 | n/a | 0.0pp | 0.2 / 0.4 | in spread / in spread | $26K |
| CA-35 | n/a | 0.2 | -2.7pp Rep | 0.1 / 0.3 | in spread / in spread | $21K |
Market depth: price impact of a $1k and $10k order
Average fill, distance from the best level and the taker fee, walked through the latest recorded Polymarket order book. Ask side takes offered YES shares, bid side takes resting bids. Fee in bps of stake at the average fill, fee / stake = rate x (1 - price). Books older than 6 hours are not used.
| Market | Ask side $1k | Ask side $10k | Bid side $1k | Bid side $10k |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate control, Dem YES book Oct 3, 2026, 14:18 UTC | 65.0 0.00pp · fee 140 bps | 65.0 0.00pp · fee 140 bps | 64.0 0.00pp · fee 144 bps | 64.0 0.00pp · fee 144 bps |
| Senate control, Rep YES book Oct 3, 2026, 14:18 UTC | 36.0 0.00pp · fee 256 bps | 36.0 0.00pp · fee 256 bps | 35.0 0.00pp · fee 260 bps | 34.9 0.11pp · fee 260 bps |
| House control, Dem YES book Oct 3, 2026, 14:18 UTC | 94.0 0.00pp · fee 24 bps | 94.0 0.00pp · fee 24 bps | 93.0 0.00pp · fee 28 bps | 93.0 0.00pp · fee 28 bps |
| House control, Rep YES book Oct 3, 2026, 14:18 UTC | 7.0 0.00pp · fee 372 bps | 7.7 0.71pp · fee 369 bps | 6.0 0.00pp · fee 376 bps | 5.4 0.64pp · fee 379 bps |
| California Governor, Becerra YES book Oct 3, 2026, 14:18 UTC | 96.0 0.02pp · fee 16 bps | not fillable | 95.7 0.13pp · fee 17 bps | 95.4 0.39pp · fee 18 bps |
| Maine Senate, Dem YES book Oct 3, 2026, 14:18 UTC | 60.0 0.00pp · fee 160 bps | 60.9 0.89pp · fee 156 bps | 58.7 0.34pp · fee 165 bps | 57.9 1.08pp · fee 168 bps |
| Texas Senate, Dem YES book Oct 3, 2026, 14:18 UTC | 67.6 0.61pp · fee 130 bps | 68.6 1.62pp · fee 126 bps | 64.1 1.85pp · fee 143 bps | 63.2 2.78pp · fee 147 bps |
| Alaska Governor, Kreiss-Tomkins YES book Oct 3, 2026, 14:18 UTC | not fillable | not fillable | 74.1 0.23pp · fee 104 bps | not fillable |
| Michigan Senate, Dem YES book Oct 3, 2026, 14:18 UTC | 73.0 0.00pp · fee 108 bps | 73.7 0.70pp · fee 105 bps | 72.0 0.00pp · fee 112 bps | 71.5 0.48pp · fee 114 bps |
| Alaska Senate, Peltola YES book Oct 3, 2026, 14:18 UTC | 72.5 0.49pp · fee 110 bps | 72.9 0.95pp · fee 108 bps | 70.1 0.91pp · fee 120 bps | 68.1 2.88pp · fee 128 bps |
| Ohio Senate, Dem YES book Oct 3, 2026, 14:18 UTC | 61.0 0.00pp · fee 156 bps | 61.8 0.76pp · fee 153 bps | 60.0 0.00pp · fee 160 bps | 59.4 0.62pp · fee 162 bps |
| Kansas Senate, Dem YES book Oct 3, 2026, 14:18 UTC | 38.0 0.00pp · fee 248 bps | 38.0 0.00pp · fee 248 bps | 36.6 0.43pp · fee 254 bps | not fillable |
| Iowa Senate, Dem YES book Oct 3, 2026, 14:18 UTC | 44.0 0.00pp · fee 224 bps | 44.8 0.78pp · fee 221 bps | 42.0 0.00pp · fee 232 bps | 41.1 0.90pp · fee 236 bps |
| Wisconsin Governor, Dem YES book Oct 3, 2026, 14:18 UTC | 83.0 0.95pp · fee 68 bps | 83.0 1.00pp · fee 68 bps | 81.0 0.00pp · fee 76 bps | 80.6 0.39pp · fee 78 bps |
Not fillable: the order runs past the price levels recorded in the snapshot, so no average is stated.
Biggest moves this week
Midterm markets by absolute 7-day change in the YES price, with the dated start price.
| Market | 7d ago | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026? | 86.5 Sep 26, 2026 | 73.5 | -13.0pp |
| Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? | 54.5 Sep 26, 2026 | 45.5 | -9.0pp |
| Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | 29.5 Sep 26, 2026 | 37.5 | +8.0pp |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | 70.5 Sep 26, 2026 | 62.5 | -8.0pp |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | 33.5 Sep 26, 2026 | 40.5 | +7.0pp |
| Will the Republican Party win the VA-01 House seat? | 60.0 Sep 26, 2026 | 53.5 | -6.5pp |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 61.5 Sep 26, 2026 | 67.5 | +6.0pp |
| Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat? | 72.5 Sep 26, 2026 | 78.5 | +6.0pp |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 39.5 Sep 26, 2026 | 33.5 | -6.0pp |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | 64.5 Sep 26, 2026 | 59.5 | -5.0pp |
How settled politics markets resolved
811 settled Polymarket politics markets recorded by Kresmion, grouped by their recorded YES price before settlement. A record of past markets, not a forecast; lead times are mixed across the population.
| Recorded price | Markets | Avg price | Resolved YES |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 20 | 526 | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| 20 to 40 | 52 | 30.0 | 26.9 |
| 40 to 60 | 30 | 48.5 | 40.0 |
| 60 to 80 | 53 | 70.9 | 67.9 |
| 80 to 100 | 150 | 94.7 | 93.3 |
Seat counts, popular vote and other midterm markets
Partial ladders as listed on the venue and recorded by Kresmion; the buckets shown do not cover every outcome, so no seat distribution is drawn from them.
Open this board in the Kresmion terminal: live depth ladder, order flow, algo flags and alerts on any race.
Method and sources
- YES means the contract pays out if the outcome in the market's own resolution rules occurs. Each price is the YES mid in percent.
- Capture: chamber-control markets about every 5 minutes, race markets on a slower rotation of under an hour (measured September 26, 2026). Each card shows its capture time.
- 24h and 7d changes compare the current price with the recorded price at that lookback, and are left blank when the nearest recording is not close enough to the label.
- Depth uses the latest recorded order book (top price levels per side) and the market's published fee schedule; books older than 6 hours are not used.
- Sources: Polymarket gamma and CLOB APIs. Methodology.
Questions
What do the numbers on this board mean?
Each number is the YES price of a prediction market, in percent, as recorded by Kresmion from the venue. A Senate control price of 62.5 for the Democratic leg means that contract traded around 62.5 cents per dollar of payout at capture time. It is a market price, not a Kresmion estimate or forecast.
Why can the Democratic and Republican prices add up to more or less than 100?
Each party leg is a separate market with its own order book, fees and traders, so the two YES prices are quoted independently. Kresmion shows both as recorded and never derives one leg as 100 minus the other.
How often is this board updated?
The chamber-control markets are captured about every five minutes and the race markets on a slower rotation of under an hour, as measured on September 26, 2026. The page itself is rebuilt at most once a minute. Each card shows its capture time in UTC.
Is this financial advice?
No. Kresmion reports prediction-market prices as market data for research context. Nothing on this page recommends any position.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices, the differences between them and walks of the recorded order book, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 562793, Polymarket gamma API, market 562794, Polymarket gamma API, market 562802, Polymarket gamma API, market 562803
Kresmion, "2026 US midterm prediction-market prices", data as of 2026-10-03, https://kresmion.com/odds/midterms-2026. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 562793; Polymarket gamma API, market 562794; Polymarket gamma API, market 562802; Polymarket gamma API, market 562803.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/midterms-2026">2026 US midterm prediction-market prices (Kresmion)</a>
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.