Research Notes · Theme

Rates

Kresmion Research notes on rates. Independent, source-attributed, information-only.

• July 28, 2026
  The Market Prices a One in Four Chance the Fed Raises Rates on Wednesday. Economists Still Say No Change.
• July 24, 2026
  The Fed Has Cut 0.75 Points Since Last Summer. The Two-Year Treasury Has Risen 0.48.
• July 13, 2026
  Liquidity Is Abundant and the Real Cost of Money Keeps Rising. The June Inflation Report Is the Test.
• June 28, 2026
  Treasuries Have Started Moving With Stocks. The 60/40 Bond Hedge Is Quietly Weakening
• June 25, 2026
  Kresmion's Cross Asset Regime Turned Risk-Off Today. Credit Spreads and Recession Bets Have Not.
• June 18, 2026
  US Retail Sales Rose 0.9% in May Against a 0.5% Forecast, the Same Afternoon the Fed Held at 3.75%.