2026-06-23

Overview Macro Regime

The macro regime remains Neutral with a slight negative bias, driven by a broad-based deterioration across all four factors. The conviction is HIGH, indicating the model is confident in this reading despite the modest score. The dominant drag comes from the liquidity factor at -0.4528, reflecting tightening financial conditions. This is compounded by negative growth and risk appetite factors. The BIS flags elevated systemic risk in Australia, Brazil, Canada, and France, warranting close monitoring. Key Risks The primary risk stems from a significant easing of sanctions on Iran, with multiple sources confirming a 60-day US license to sell Iranian oil. This geopolitical shift could pressure global oil markets. Whale activity underscores this crypto stress, with a $36 million outflow of SOL from Binance to an unknown wallet. Market Context Financial conditions are loose, as indicated by the negative NFCI reading of -0.5050. The yield curve remains positively sloped at +27bps, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.46%. Credit spreads are elevated, with High-Yield OAS at 266bps and Investment-Grade at 74bps. Crypto markets are under sharp pressure, led by Solana's 7.39% decline to $68.90 and Bitcoin's 4.53% drop to $62,114. Consumer sentiment remains depressed at 49.80. Watch The most critical near-term event is the US GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final for the first quarter, due tomorrow at 12:30 UTC. The forecast of 1.6% represents a significant acceleration from the prior reading of 0.5%, and any deviation will be pivotal for reassessing the growth factor's trajectory. This release is accompanied by high-importance data on Durable Goods Orders and Core PCE.