2026-06-24

Overview The macro regime remains Neutral with a slight negative drift, reflecting a cautious equilibrium ahead of a significant US data dump. Macro Regime The Neutral score is driven by a sharp contraction in liquidity conditions, which is the most dominant negative factor. This is partially offset by less negative readings for growth and volatility. Risk appetite remains subdued. The BIS flags elevated systemic risk in several developed economies, specifically Australia, Brazil, Canada, and France, where debt service ratios are notably high. Key Risks Political risk is elevated as the Senate considers a War Powers vote regarding Iran, which could introduce geopolitical volatility. Legislative risk is also present with the US Senate banning a Fed CBDC until 2030, a move that protects private stablecoins but creates long-term regulatory uncertainty for digital assets. Whale activity shows substantial SOL moving to an exchange, potentially signaling selling pressure, alongside mixed but large ETH flows. Market Context The yield curve remains positively sloped at 27bps with the 10-year at 4.51%. Credit spreads are elevated, with high-yield OAS at 265bps and investment-grade at 74bps, indicating ongoing credit stress. Financial conditions are loose per the NFCI reading of -0.5050. Crypto markets are flat, with Bitcoin at $62,028 and Ethereum at $1,656. Watch The core PCE price index MoM release at 12:30 UTC today is the critical event, with forecast 0.3% against a prior of 0.2%. This inflation data point will be paramount for near-term policy expectations. Concurrent US releases include final QoQ GDP, durable goods orders, personal spending, and personal income.