Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Part of: Presidential Election Winner 2028. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.

Yes probability

12%

24h change

+0.3pp

7d change

-0.1pp

Volume

$17.4M

Resolves by

Nov 7, 2028

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

Other outcomes in this event

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?20%Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?14%Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?8%Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?7%Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?5%Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?3%Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?2%Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?2%

Resolution criteria

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-07-15 00:23 UTC. Trade on the venue itself: this page is research context, not an order book. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.