Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Part of: Presidential Election Winner 2028. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" at 3% as of Oct 15, 2026, 11:52 UTC, the same as a week earlier.
Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 14, 2026, this market has traded between 2 percent (Jul 15, 2026) and 3 percent (Sep 22, 2026), across 7,941 recorded prices. The current price of 3 percent is level with where it stood 7 days ago (3 percent), and 0.1 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (3 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | 2% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 2% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 2% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 2% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 2% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 2% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 3% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 3% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 3% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 3% |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 3% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 3% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 3 percent, with the NO outcome at 97 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
More politics markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 561232
Kresmion, "Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-15, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-pete-buttigieg-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 561232.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-pete-buttigieg-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election">Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-10-15 11:52 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.