Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Part of: Presidential Election Winner 2028. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
As of Aug 29, 2026, Polymarket prices "Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" at 24 percent YES, on $15.9M of lifetime volume.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 14, 2026, this market has traded between 20 percent (Jul 18, 2026) and 24 percent (Aug 29, 2026), across 2,300 recorded prices. The current price of 24 percent is 4.0 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (20 percent), and 4.3 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (20 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | 20% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 20% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 21% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 21% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 23% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 23% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 24% |
Market liquidity
The best bid for YES is 24 percent and the best ask is 25 percent, a spread of 0.8 percentage points. Within 1 percent of the mid price the book holds $0 on the bid side and $0 on the ask side.
A tighter spread means the two sides agree more closely on the price. Depth indicates how much can trade near the current price.
Order book captured 2026-08-29 04:38 UTC.
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 24 percent, with the NO outcome at 76 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-08-29 04:39 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.