Contango and backwardation monitor

How this is computed

For each market we take the latest settlement date that carries at least two delivery months and read that day's full curve, ordered from the nearest contract outward. The front month is the contract closest to expiry; every point to its right is a separate, later delivery month further out on the curve. The chart plots the settle of each delivery month against its position on the curve.

The front to next spread is the next delivery's settle minus the front settle, divided by the front settle, in percent. A curve is labelled contango when that spread is greater than +0.25 percent (later months priced higher), backwardation when it is below -0.25 percent (later months priced lower), and flat when it sits between the two.

The annualized roll yield annualizes that same front to next price step. It takes the ratio of the front settle to the next settle, raises it to the power of twelve divided by the number of months between the two deliveries, subtracts one, and states the result as a percent. The month gap is floored at one so adjacent-month curves stay well defined. The spread-history strip recomputes the front to next spread for every recorded settlement, so it lengthens by one point each day as more history accrues.

This describes the structure of the curve as of the latest settlement. It is a description, not a prediction of where prices go and not a trade signal. Curve shapes can persist or change, and this page makes no directional call.