Futures seasonality
How this is computed
For October in settlement history from 2016-07-19 to 2026-10-26, Bitcoin (CME) futures had the highest average month-end to month-end return of the 38 markets with at least 3 years of data, +13.9% (positive in 75% of 8 years). Lean Hogs had the lowest, -4.6% (positive in 33% of 9 years).
Kresmion computes each month's return from month-end settlement to month-end settlement and averages it by calendar month, with the share of positive months and the number of years in each cell; it describes past history and is not a forecast.
How each futures market has tended to move by calendar month, measured as the average month-end to month-end return, the share of months that finished positive, and the sample size behind each cell. Source: daily settlement history, front-month continuous. Full method.
Sep to Dec on this screen. The other 8 months and each market's best and worst month show on a wider screen.Jul to Dec on this screen. The other 6 months show on a wider screen.
| Contract | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Best / Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude OilEnergy | +5.2 | +1.7 | +0.9 | -0.2 | +5.2 | +2.5 | +3.8 | -2.1 | +1.6 | -1.0 | -2.2 | +3.2 | Jan +5.2%Nov -2.2% |
| Brent Crude OilEnergy | +5.5 | +1.7 | +1.9 | +1.1 | +1.1 | +1.3 | +4.2 | -1.0 | +2.2 | -0.7 | -1.8 | +2.5 | Jan +5.5%Nov -1.8% |
| Natural GasEnergy | -5.8 | -5.0 | +1.6 | +5.9 | +5.2 | -0.1 | -0.8 | +8.9 | +6.0 | +8.1 | +4.3 | -12.3 | Aug +8.9%Dec -12.3% |
| Heating OilEnergy | +5.4 | -0.6 | +3.3 | -0.9 | -1.2 | +5.0 | +5.3 | +1.4 | +2.9 | +1.9 | -3.5 | +2.6 | Jan +5.4%Nov -3.5% |
| RBOB GasolineEnergy | +3.6 | +3.9 | +10.9 | +4.2 | +3.0 | +2.0 | +3.1 | -1.3 | -6.1 | -0.1 | -4.4 | +2.9 | Mar +10.9%Sep -6.1% |
Free account Open Bitcoin (CME) in the futures terminalA free account opens the Bitcoin (CME) contract page: its daily price chart, its average return for the current calendar month, realized volatility, speculative positioning where the CFTC reports it, and the events recorded on the contract. | |||||||||||||
| GoldMetals | +3.2 | +0.6 | +1.7 | +1.7 | +0.7 | -1.8 | +1.8 | +1.8 | -1.1 | +1.5 | -0.3 | +2.6 | Jan +3.2%Jun -1.8% |
| SilverMetals | +3.2 | -0.3 | -0.7 | -0.0 | +3.8 | -3.2 | +3.8 | +2.1 | -2.0 | +1.9 | +1.0 | +5.9 | Dec +5.9%Jun -3.2% |
| CopperMetals | +2.4 | +2.4 | -0.4 | +1.3 | +0.0 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.7 | +1.1 | +0.9 | +4.4 | +2.0 | Nov +4.4%Aug -0.7% |
| PlatinumMetals | +3.1 | +0.3 | -3.9 | +1.9 | +0.9 | -3.0 | +1.6 | +0.1 | -0.5 | +1.5 | +0.7 | +4.6 | Dec +4.6%Mar -3.9% |
| PalladiumMetals | +4.7 | +1.1 | -1.7 | +0.3 | -4.5 | +1.2 | +3.2 | +0.4 | +1.5 | +1.0 | +1.5 | +3.0 | Jan +4.7%May -4.5% |
| WheatAgriculture | +1.1 | +0.6 | +0.6 | +1.1 | +3.1 | -2.3 | +1.2 | -2.8 | +3.9 | +0.9 | -2.0 | +3.3 | Sep +3.9%Aug -2.8% |
| CornAgriculture | +2.0 | -0.7 | +2.0 | +3.0 | -0.3 | -3.1 | -5.9 | -0.8 | +4.8 | +1.9 | -0.9 | +4.8 | Dec +4.8%Jul -5.9% |
| SoybeansAgriculture | +2.3 | +1.2 | -0.0 | +0.0 | -1.0 | -0.3 | -1.5 | -2.3 | +0.4 | +1.4 | +2.9 | +1.2 | Nov +2.9%Aug -2.3% |
| CocoaAgriculture | -2.2 | +0.3 | +6.1 | +4.2 | +0.5 | -0.7 | +1.0 | +5.3 | -5.6 | -0.8 | +4.8 | +2.5 | Mar +6.1%Sep -5.6% |
| CoffeeAgriculture | +1.4 | -0.7 | -1.8 | +3.1 | -0.7 | -0.8 | +3.3 | +3.7 | -2.0 | +0.6 | +7.6 | -1.6 | Nov +7.6%Sep -2.0% |
| CottonAgriculture | +2.5 | +1.3 | -0.1 | +3.3 | -2.2 | -4.7 | +1.9 | +1.4 | -2.5 | -1.0 | +3.4 | +0.9 | Nov +3.4%Jun -4.7% |
| Sugar No. 11Agriculture | +2.7 | +0.1 | -5.3 | -0.3 | -1.1 | -1.1 | +0.5 | +3.1 | +3.4 | +3.4 | -0.4 | -2.4 | Sep +3.4%Mar -5.3% |
| Soybean MealAgriculture | +0.8 | +1.9 | -0.1 | -1.8 | -1.5 | -1.3 | +0.8 | -2.9 | +0.3 | +5.1 | +0.3 | +2.9 | Oct +5.1%Aug -2.9% |
| Soybean OilAgriculture | +3.4 | +1.9 | -0.1 | +4.6 | -1.4 | +2.7 | +1.8 | +0.2 | -3.4 | +2.3 | +0.6 | -1.5 | Apr +4.6%Sep -3.4% |
| Feeder CattleAgriculture | -0.4 | +0.0 | +1.1 | +1.1 | +4.7 | +2.1 | +1.6 | -0.9 | +1.8 | -0.5 | -0.5 | +1.3 | May +4.7%Aug -0.9% |
| Lean HogsAgriculture | -1.0 | +7.6 | +0.7 | +7.1 | +6.1 | -0.3 | +1.1 | -15.7 | +4.9 | -4.6 | -1.6 | +8.6 | Dec +8.6%Aug -15.7% |
| Live CattleAgriculture | +0.9 | +1.8 | -1.7 | +2.3 | -4.4 | +2.6 | -1.2 | -0.5 | +1.3 | +3.5 | +1.3 | +3.8 | Dec +3.8%May -4.4% |
| S&P 500 E-miniFinancial | +1.9 | -0.7 | -0.8 | +2.0 | +1.8 | +2.0 | +2.9 | +1.0 | -1.0 | +0.5 | +4.1 | +0.3 | Nov +4.1%Sep -1.0% |
| Nasdaq E-miniFinancial | +3.1 | -0.6 | +0.1 | +2.8 | +3.6 | +3.2 | +2.8 | +1.8 | -0.9 | +0.7 | +3.7 | +0.2 | Nov +3.7%Sep -0.9% |
| 30Y Treasury BondFinancial | -0.2 | -0.2 | +0.3 | -1.2 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.2 | -2.8 | -2.0 | +1.1 | -0.3 | Nov +1.1%Sep -2.8% |
| 10Y Treasury NoteFinancial | -0.1 | -0.2 | +0.1 | -0.5 | +0.3 | -0.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 | -1.3 | -1.0 | +0.4 | -0.1 | Nov +0.4%Sep -1.3% |
| Russell 2000 E-miniFinancial | +2.0 | -0.3 | -3.6 | +1.0 | +1.9 | +2.5 | +2.8 | +0.3 | -1.6 | +0.2 | +4.9 | -0.1 | Nov +4.9%Mar -3.6% |
| Dow E-miniFinancial | +1.6 | -0.9 | -1.3 | +1.3 | +0.7 | +1.7 | +2.5 | +1.0 | -1.2 | +1.5 | +4.6 | +0.4 | Nov +4.6%Mar -1.3% |
| 5Y Treasury NoteFinancial | -0.2 | -0.2 | +0.3 | -0.4 | +0.2 | -0.1 | -0.0 | +0.1 | -0.8 | -0.7 | +0.2 | +0.2 | Mar +0.3%Sep -0.8% |
| 2Y Treasury NoteFinancial | -0.1 | -0.1 | +0.1 | -0.2 | +0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | +0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | +0.0 | +0.2 | Dec +0.2%Oct -0.3% |
| Euro FXFinancial | +0.3 | -0.9 | +0.0 | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.2 | -1.1 | -0.7 | +0.4 | +1.0 | Dec +1.0%Sep -1.1% |
| Japanese YenFinancial | +0.6 | -0.5 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.1 | -1.8 | +1.2 | +0.2 | -1.1 | -1.7 | +0.2 | +0.7 | Jul +1.2%Jun -1.8% |
| British PoundFinancial | +1.2 | -0.8 | -0.2 | +0.6 | -0.6 | -0.3 | +0.4 | -0.3 | -0.8 | +0.1 | +1.2 | +0.7 | Nov +1.2%Sep -0.8% |
| Australian DollarFinancial | +0.9 | -0.8 | -0.8 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.3 | -0.1 | -1.1 | -0.9 | +0.7 | +0.8 | Jan +0.9%Sep -1.1% |
| Canadian DollarFinancial | +0.7 | -1.0 | -0.5 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.5 | -0.1 | -1.0 | -0.7 | +0.1 | +0.6 | Jan +0.7%Feb -1.0% |
| Swiss FrancFinancial | +0.3 | -1.1 | -0.1 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +1.0 | +0.3 | +0.2 | -0.8 | -0.9 | +0.5 | +1.8 | Dec +1.8%Feb -1.1% |
| Bitcoin (CME)Financial | +5.0 | +5.9 | +2.7 | +9.5 | +0.8 | -5.1 | +11.1 | -0.7 | -1.5 | +13.9 | +0.5 | +2.0 | Oct +13.9%Jun -5.1% |
| Ethereum (CME)Financial | -1.2 | -1.1 | +8.3 | +3.4 | +3.4 | -15.4 | +22.9 | +8.3 | -2.7 | +11.9 | +5.3 | -4.6 | Jul +22.9%Jun -15.4% |
How this is computed
For each contract we take the last daily settlement of every calendar month as that month-end mark. A month's return is that mark divided by the prior available month-end mark, minus one. We then group every month by its position in the calendar (all the Januaries together, all the Februaries, and so on) and report three numbers per cell: the average return, the hit rate (share of years that finished positive), and n, the number of years in the sample. Green means the average was positive, red negative, and the deeper the shade the larger the average move.
Cells with fewer than 3 years of history show a dash rather than a number, since a one or two year average is not a stable statistic. These are front-month continuous series stitched from the active contract, so a monthly return that spans a contract roll includes the roll gap. The coverage window grows as more daily history accumulates.
Seasonality is a description of what has happened, not a prediction of what will. Past calendar patterns can persist or break, and this page makes no directional call.
Cite this data
Kresmion computes each month's return from month-end settlement to month-end settlement and averages it by calendar month, with the share of positive months and the number of years in each cell; it describes past history and is not a forecast.
Upstream: Daily futures settlement history, front-month continuous
Kresmion, "Futures Monthly Seasonality", data as of 2026-10-26, https://kresmion.com/tools/futures-seasonality. Upstream data: Daily futures settlement history, front-month continuous.
Link to this data (HTML):
<a href="https://kresmion.com/tools/futures-seasonality">Futures Monthly Seasonality (Kresmion)</a>