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Merger arbitrage board

Pending deals read from SEC filings: the terms each filing states, the spread Kresmion computes from them, and the prices prediction and options markets put on completion, each with its source.
How this is computed

As of 2026-10-29, 90 pending deals with a traded target are on the board: 39 with a cash price and 22 with an exchange ratio stated in the filings. A spread is computed for 48. 0 have a matching Polymarket market and 0 an options-implied price; the rest show no market-implied figure.

Kresmion reads each deal's terms from its SEC filings with a deterministic parser, computes the spread as the deal value per share (the filing's cash per share plus the exchange ratio times the acquirer's last price) over the target's last price minus one, annualises it over the days to the last day of the close period the filing names, and computes the premium against the target's close on the last session before the announcement. Completion odds are market prices with their source, never a Kresmion estimate.

As of . Sources: SEC EDGAR: 8-K, DEFM14A, PREM14A, S-4 and Schedule TO filings, Polymarket event contract prices, Kresmion options chain snapshots. Method and limitations.

On the board
90
3601 pending in total
Cash price stated
39
consideration type cash
Exchange ratio stated
22
stock or mixed
Spread computed
48
of 90 on the board

Spread against time to the stated close

one dot per deal; click a dot to open it below
CashStock or mixedElection, aggregate or not parsed
0%5%10%15%0100200300400days to the last day of the stated close periodUNF ▲ +25.64%BHF ▲ +62.87%SUPN ▲ +29.75%
70 deals in view not drawn: no computed spread or no calendar end for the stated close.
3 spreads far outside the rest are pinned to the chart edge (dashed ring) with the value written beside them.

Free account

The prices behind each spread, with a free account

A free account adds the target's and the acquirer's last prices behind each spread, with their dates, and the Kalshi price wherever a Kalshi market names the deal, to this board.

When do the stated close periods end?

pending deals in view, by month
0918Sep 26Sep 26: 1 deal(s); cash 0, stock or mixed 1, other 0Dec 26Dec 26: 18 deal(s); cash 6, stock or mixed 6, other 6Mar 27Mar 27: 6 deal(s); cash 3, stock or mixed 3, other 0Jun 27Jun 27: 8 deal(s); cash 3, stock or mixed 2, other 3Dec 27Dec 27: 2 deal(s); cash 0, stock or mixed 1, other 1
Month in which the close period named in the filing ends. Faded bars are past months. 55 deals in view name no calendar end (fiscal periods, "early 2027") and are not counted.

CART / DASH: deal timeline

Maplebear Inc. by DoorDash, Inc. · cash or stock at holder election + $65.00 cash + 0.3372 DASH sh
todayAnnounced: 2026-10-282026-10-28Agreement: 2026-10-282026-10-28Latest filing (8-K): 2026-10-29
  • Announced 2026-10-28
  • Agreement 2026-10-28
  • Latest filing (8-K) 2026-10-29
Spread
n/a
holder election between cash and stock
Annualised
n/a
not annualised
Premium
n/a
vs close 2026-10-27
Polymarket
n/a
no matching market
Termination fee
$650.0M
payable by the target
Reverse fee
$1.25B
payable by the acquirer
Filings read
2
latest 2026-10-29
Options-implied
n/a
not in options universe

Pending deals

90 on the board · newest filing 2026-10-29 · click a row for its timeline
90 of 90
Pending M&A deals
CARTMaplebear Inc.
n/a
holder election between cash and stock
ULBIUltralife Corporation
n/a
no per-share consideration parsed
MFICMidCap Financial Investment Corporation
-88.36%
vs $1.21
RRCRange Resources Corporation
n/a
no per-share consideration parsed
SGRYSurgery Partners, Inc.
+1.25%
vs $23.50
BRZEBraze, Inc.
+3.71%
vs $47.50
VRNSVaronis Systems, Inc.
n/a
no per-share consideration parsed
CCCCCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.
+0.91%
vs $7.75
BMBLBumble Inc.
n/a
no per-share consideration parsed
PCRXPacira BioSciences, Inc.
n/a
no per-share consideration parsed
OPCHOption Care Health, Inc.
n/a
no per-share consideration parsed
RXORXO, Inc.
n/a
holder election between cash and stock
PTCPTC Inc.
+5.24%
vs $205.00
SSTISoundThinking, Inc.
-4.42%
vs $8.00
LFCRLifecore Biomedical, Inc.
-3.68%
vs $6.28
MGLDMarygold Companies, Inc.
+1.52%
vs $2.00
CDLRCadeler A/S
n/a
no per-share consideration parsed
PRTHPriority Technology Holdings, Inc.
+2.55%
vs $8.05
MGMistras Group, Inc.
+0.74%
vs $20.35
BWINBaldwin Insurance Group Holdings, LLC
+2.10%
vs $32.50
CSRCenterspace
n/a
no per-share consideration parsed
EFSIEagle Financial Services, Inc.
+0.56%
stock leg priced
BRBSBlue Ridge Bankshares, Inc.
+0.92%
stock leg priced
HHSHarte Hanks, Inc.
n/a
holder election between cash and stock
ARXAccelerant Holdings
+2.17%
vs $20.25
BWMNBowman Consulting Group Ltd.
+0.33%
vs $43.00
HZOMarineMax, Inc.
+0.78%
vs $53.00
DVDoubleVerify Holdings, Inc.
+0.22%
vs $13.60
LNTHLantheus Holdings, Inc.
n/a
no per-share consideration parsed
BOWBowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.
-0.38%
vs $34.00
ITGRInteger Holdings Corporation
+0.38%
vs $127.00
SMTISanara MedTech Inc.
+5.97%
stock leg priced
CBZCBIZ, Inc.
+0.04%
vs $55.00
NEUPNeuphoria Therapeutics Inc.
n/a
no per-share consideration parsed
SAFTSafety Insurance Group, Inc.
+1.01%
vs $105.00
NRIMNorthrim BanCorp, Inc.
n/a
acquirer price unavailable
PSNLPersonalis, Inc.
n/a
holder election between cash and stock
DSGRDistribution Solutions Group, Inc.
-0.03%
vs $35.00
TCBKTriCo Bancshares
+0.40%
stock leg priced
CRGTCortigent, Inc.
n/a
no per-share consideration parsed
LCIILCI Industries
n/a
acquirer price unavailable
TECHBio-Techne Corporation
+0.40%
vs $73.00
NENoble
n/a
no per-share consideration parsed
REFIChicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.
n/a
no per-share consideration parsed
ROKURoku, Inc.
+1.41%
stock leg priced
DANDana Incorporated
+1484.39%
stock leg priced
FSKFS KKR Capital Corp
n/a
no per-share consideration parsed
GNKGenco Shipping & Trading Limited
-11.85%
vs $23.50
OGNOrganon & Co.
+1.38%
vs $14.00
LEEEFLeef Brands, Inc.
n/a
no per-share consideration parsed
CRBGCorebridge Financial, Inc.
n/a
no per-share consideration parsed
XTNDXtend
n/a
acquirer price unavailable
UNFUniFirst Corporation
+25.64%
stock leg priced
SWDRStarwood Real Estate Income Trust, Inc
n/a
no per-share consideration parsed
NATLNCR Atleos Corporation
n/a
acquirer price unavailable
SLABSilicon Laboratories Inc.
+3.89%
vs $231.00
WBDWarner Bros. Discovery, Inc.
n/a
target price older than 7 days
GDOTGreen Dot Corporation
n/a
acquirer price unavailable
AXTAAxalta Coating Systems Ltd.
n/a
no per-share consideration parsed
BCICBcp Investment Corporation
n/a
no per-share consideration parsed
BHFBrighthouse Financial, Inc.
+62.87%
vs $70.00
MOVECorvex, Inc.
n/a
no per-share consideration parsed
WTRGEssential
n/a
acquirer price unavailable
VECOVeeco
n/a
acquirer price unavailable
GPROGoPro
+14.00%
vs $1.14
IBOImpact
n/a
no per-share consideration parsed
VEEETwin Vee PowerCats Co.
n/a
no per-share consideration parsed
SUPNSupernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
+29.75%
stock leg priced
TYFGTri-County Financial Group, Inc.
n/a
holder election between cash and stock
IRDMIridium
-41.37%
vs $27.00
PAYOPayoneer
+3.93%
vs $7.40
VREXVarex Imaging Corporation
+2.50%
vs $18.90
UTZUtz Brands, Inc.
-0.21%
vs $14.25
FNWDFinward Bancorp
+0.80%
stock leg priced
ENVAEnova
n/a
acquirer price unavailable
CZRCaesars Entertainment, Inc.
+6.42%
vs $31.00
MKTXMarketAxess Holdings Inc.
+1.26%
vs $167.00
CCOClear Channel Outdoor Holdings, Inc.
n/a
target price older than 7 days
KVUEKenvue
+0.16%
stock leg priced
LSTALisata Therapeutics, Inc
n/a
no per-share consideration parsed
GSATGlobalstar, Inc.
n/a
holder election between cash and stock
RAMPLiveRamp Holdings, Inc.
+0.71%
vs $38.50
SYNASynaptics Incorporated
+90.46%
stock leg priced
CBNKCapital Bancorp, Inc.
+2.64%
stock leg priced
SYYSysco Corporation
n/a
acquirer price unavailable
OLNOlin
n/a
acquirer price unavailable
DDominion Energy, Inc.
+2.65%
stock leg priced
AESAES Corporation
-0.33%
vs $15.00
NSCNorfolk Southern
+14.19%
stock leg priced
PENPenumbra
n/a
holder election between cash and stock

Default order: announcement date, newest first. T = termination fee payable by the target, R = reverse fee payable by the acquirer, as stated. Gap = Polymarket price minus the options-implied price, in percentage points. A price on this board is a market price with its source, never a Kresmion estimate of whether a deal closes.

Closed or withdrawn in the last 60 days

lifecycle from 8-K Items 2.01 and 1.02, Forms 15 and 25
NANO Forge Nano, Inc.completed 8-K2026-10-27
Nathan's Famous Inc.completed 8-K2026-10-26
SNTI Senti Holdings, Inc.completed 8-K2026-10-26
WEAV Weave Communications, Inc.completed 8-K2026-10-26
Prana Therapies, Inc.completed 8-K2026-10-23
ACA Arcosa, Inc.completed 8-K2026-10-23
Long Range Intermediate LLCcompleted 8-K2026-10-21
BZH Beazer Homes USA, Inc.completed 8-K2026-10-20
ATKR Atkore Inc.completed 8-K2026-10-19
ACVA ACV Auctions Inc.completed 8-K2026-10-16
LGMK LogicMark, Inc.completed 8-K2026-10-13
Velaris Therapeutics, Inc.completed 8-K2026-10-13
Pathfinder Digital Assets LLCcompleted 8-K2026-10-09
COLA Columbus Acquisition Corpcompleted 8-K2026-10-07
WBD Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.completed 8-K2026-10-06
SLP Simulations Plus, Inc.completed 8-K2026-10-06
BLFS BioLife Solutions, Inc.completed 8-K2026-10-06
QRVO Qorvo, Inc.completed 8-K2026-10-05
FTHM Fathom Holdings Inc.withdrawn2026-10-05
Performance Technologies Businesscompleted 8-K2026-10-01
FSEA First Seacoast Bancorp, Inc.completed 25-NSE2026-10-01
NSTS NSTS Bancorp, Inc.completed 8-K2026-10-01
Autonomous Power Corporationcompleted 8-K2026-10-01
Auction Holdings, Inc.completed2026-10-01
DBRG DigitalBridge Group, Inc.completed 8-K2026-09-30
VRME VerifyMe and Open World Ltd.completed 8-K2026-09-29
GBTG Global Business Travel Group, Inc.completed 8-K2026-09-29
Mantle Therapeutics Inc.completed 8-K2026-09-29
GOWell Technology Limitedcompleted2026-09-28
TBPH Theravance Biopharma, Inc.completed2026-09-23
HVII ONE Nuclear Energy, LLCcompleted 8-K2026-09-23
Carbonium Core, Inc.withdrawn2026-09-21
HCWC Host Digital Infrastructure LLCcompleted 8-K2026-09-18
Clean World Ventures, Inc.withdrawn 8-K2026-09-18
Marea Therapeutics, Inc.completed2026-09-17
Convergent Genomics Inc.completed2026-09-14
ATAI AtaiBeckley Inc.completed 8-K2026-09-11
Alkeus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.completed 8-K2026-09-10
GBCS Selectis Health, Inc.completed 8-K2026-09-09
Clywedog Therapeutics, Inc.completed 8-K2026-09-09

Kalshi, last prices and stock-leg values

signed-in layer

Method

  • Deals are read from SEC filings by a deterministic parser: no language model reads or writes a term. A term a filing does not state is shown as not parsed; two different values in one filing are withheld.
  • Deal value per share = the filing's cash per share plus the exchange ratio times the acquirer's last price. Contingent value rights are not valued. Holder-election deals are not valued.
  • Spread = deal value per share over the target's last price, minus one. A last price older than 7 days is not used.
  • Annualised = spread times 365 over the days to the last day of the calendar period the filing names (simple, not compounded). Fiscal periods and phrases such as "early 2027" have no calendar end and are not annualised.
  • Premium = the deal value at announcement over the target's close on the last session before the announcement date, minus one; a stock leg uses the acquirer's close on the same day.
  • Polymarket = the YES price of a live market whose question names the target and an M&A word. Options-implied = the risk-neutral probability, from Kresmion's options chain snapshots, that the target trades at or above 98% of the deal value at the first listed expiry on or after the stated close; risk-neutral is not a real-world probability. Most targets are outside the options universe.
  • The board lists pending deals with a traded target. Partial tender offers, SPAC business combinations and private targets are not on it. A deal leaves the board when Kresmion reads its completion (Item 2.01) or the termination of its agreement (Item 1.02); nothing ages a deal off the board except 400 days with no new filing.
  • The charts draw the payload above and nothing else: a spread history is not stored, so no spread-over-time line is drawn.

Cite this data

Kresmion reads each deal's terms from its SEC filings with a deterministic parser, computes the spread as the deal value per share (the filing's cash per share plus the exchange ratio times the acquirer's last price) over the target's last price minus one, annualises it over the days to the last day of the close period the filing names, and computes the premium against the target's close on the last session before the announcement. Completion odds are market prices with their source, never a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: SEC EDGAR: 8-K, DEFM14A, PREM14A, S-4 and Schedule TO filings, Polymarket event contract prices, Kresmion options chain snapshots

Kresmion, "Kresmion Merger Arbitrage Board", data as of 2026-10-29, https://kresmion.com/tools/merger-arb. Upstream data: SEC EDGAR: 8-K, DEFM14A, PREM14A, S-4 and Schedule TO filings; Polymarket event contract prices; Kresmion options chain snapshots.

Link to this data (HTML):

<a href="https://kresmion.com/tools/merger-arb">Kresmion Merger Arbitrage Board (Kresmion)</a>