2026-08-21

Overview The macro regime reading declined modestly from yesterday but remains Neutral, essentially zero with no directional conviction. Macro Regime The Neutral reading reflects offsetting factor scores. Volatility is the dominant negative factor at -0.4306, with growth at -0.2316 adding drag. Liquidity at +0.1505 and a loose NFCI at -0.5590 provide the offset, while risk appetite at -0.0950 adds a mild negative tilt. BIS systemic risk remains elevated in Australia (20%), Brazil (29%), Canada (25%), and France (21%), with China, Japan, and Korea on watch. Key Risks The OSINT cluster of US stocks and bonds sliding amid market weakness (3 sources) aligns with the negative growth and volatility factors. Market Context The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.65% and the 2-year is 4.19%, leaving the curve slope at +46bps. High-yield OAS is 273bps and investment-grade OAS is 81bps. The 10-year breakeven inflation is 2.34% and the 30-year mortgage rate is 6.65%. The Chicago Fed NFCI is -0.5590, indicating loose financial conditions, while initial jobless claims are 206,000 and UMich consumer sentiment is 49.50. Bitcoin trades at $75,492, Ethereum at $2,375, and Solana at $90.23. Watch Watch the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for Germany at 07:30 UTC today, forecast 52.0 against prior 52.2. A print below 52.0 would confirm the negative growth factor and the OSINT cluster of US stocks and bonds sliding, while a print above 52.2 would contradict the growth drag. The UK services and manufacturing flash PMIs follow at 08:30 UTC with forecasts 51.8 and 51.5 against priors 52.1 and 51.9.