2026-09-18

Overview The macro regime score improved by 0.1486 to Neutral, essentially zero with no directional conviction. Macro Regime The Neutral reading reflects offsetting factor contributions. Growth is +0.2311, risk appetite +0.3389, and volatility +0.3948, but liquidity is -0.6296, the largest absolute factor and the main drag. BIS systemic risk remains elevated in Australia (DSR 20%), Brazil (DSR 29%), Canada (DSR 25%), and France (DSR 21%), with China, Japan, and Korea on watch. Key Risks A critical going concern filing at IBG and VOGX, plus a material weakness at CTTH, each carry a 1.00 multiplier and signal balance-sheet stress for small issuers even as the NFCI sits at -0.5600. Elevated BIS debt service ratios in Australia, Brazil, Canada, and France amplify sensitivity to the 5.01% 10-year Treasury yield and 6.95% mortgage rate. Market Context The 10-year Treasury yields 5.01% and the 2-year 4.74%, leaving a +27bps curve slope. High-yield OAS is 270bps and investment-grade OAS is 78bps. The NFCI is -0.5600, the Fed balance sheet is $6,746,548 million, reverse repo is $0.276 trillion, initial jobless claims are 196,000, and UMich sentiment is 55.20. Bitcoin trades at $78,078, Ethereum at $2,509, and Solana at $105.72. Watch With no high or critical macro releases in the next 48 hours, the key watch is whether the $387M of USDC inflows to Coinbase (268M plus 119M) translate into spot crypto buying.