Macro regime

One daily read of the cross-asset backdrop: a label from Strong Risk-On to Strong Risk-Off and the composite score behind it.
Regime
Strong Risk-Off
as of
Composite score
-0.59
smoothed; above zero leans risk-on
Conviction and dwell
HIGH
5 days in this regime

On 2026-10-03 Kresmion's cross-asset regime composite read Strong Risk-Off, at a smoothed score of -0.59 with high conviction, day 5 of that regime. Over the last 90 stored days it read Neutral on 52, Risk-Off on 18, Risk-On on 13, Strong Risk-Off on 7.

As of . Sources: Kresmion regime engine methodology, FRED (a subset of the inputs). Method and limitations.

The last 90 stored daysbar height = composite score, colour = regime label

2026-07-06: Risk-On, score +0.232026-07-07: Risk-On, score +0.242026-07-08: Risk-On, score +0.222026-07-09: Neutral, score +0.132026-07-10: Risk-On, score +0.172026-07-11: Risk-On, score +0.202026-07-12: Neutral, score +0.152026-07-13: Neutral, score +0.012026-07-14: Neutral, score 0.002026-07-15: Neutral, score +0.082026-07-16: Neutral, score +0.072026-07-17: Neutral, score -0.012026-07-18: Neutral, score -0.032026-07-19: Neutral, score -0.032026-07-20: Neutral, score +0.042026-07-21: Neutral, score +0.082026-07-22: Neutral, score +0.022026-07-23: Neutral, score -0.102026-07-24: Neutral, score -0.042026-07-25: Neutral, score -0.062026-07-26: Neutral, score -0.072026-07-27: Neutral, score -0.062026-07-28: Neutral, score -0.122026-07-29: Neutral, score -0.092026-07-30: Neutral, score 0.002026-07-31: Neutral, score +0.072026-08-01: Neutral, score +0.102026-08-02: Neutral, score +0.142026-08-03: Neutral, score +0.102026-08-04: Risk-On, score +0.182026-08-05: Risk-On, score +0.332026-08-06: Risk-On, score +0.192026-08-07: Neutral, score +0.112026-08-08: Neutral, score +0.082026-08-09: Neutral, score +0.062026-08-10: Risk-On, score +0.172026-08-11: Neutral, score +0.152026-08-12: Neutral, score +0.122026-08-13: Risk-On, score +0.172026-08-14: Risk-On, score +0.182026-08-15: Neutral, score +0.152026-08-16: Neutral, score +0.152026-08-17: Risk-On, score +0.172026-08-18: Neutral, score +0.082026-08-19: Neutral, score +0.012026-08-20: Neutral, score -0.032026-08-21: Neutral, score -0.052026-08-22: Neutral, score -0.072026-08-23: Neutral, score -0.102026-08-24: Neutral, score -0.152026-08-25: Neutral, score -0.042026-08-26: Neutral, score +0.042026-08-27: Neutral, score +0.162026-08-28: Neutral, score +0.172026-08-29: Neutral, score +0.102026-08-30: Neutral, score +0.082026-08-31: Neutral, score +0.052026-09-01: Neutral, score -0.152026-09-02: Risk-Off, score -0.262026-09-03: Risk-Off, score -0.392026-09-04: Risk-Off, score -0.292026-09-05: Risk-Off, score -0.302026-09-06: Risk-Off, score -0.312026-09-07: Risk-Off, score -0.392026-09-08: Risk-Off, score -0.372026-09-09: Risk-Off, score -0.352026-09-10: Risk-Off, score -0.382026-09-11: Risk-Off, score -0.352026-09-12: Risk-Off, score -0.452026-09-13: Strong Risk-Off, score -0.512026-09-14: Risk-Off, score -0.502026-09-15: Risk-Off, score -0.492026-09-16: Strong Risk-Off, score -0.522026-09-17: Risk-Off, score -0.282026-09-18: Neutral, score -0.042026-09-19: Neutral, score +0.032026-09-20: Neutral, score +0.082026-09-21: Neutral, score +0.132026-09-22: Neutral, score +0.152026-09-23: Risk-On, score +0.212026-09-24: Neutral, score +0.092026-09-25: Risk-Off, score -0.202026-09-26: Risk-Off, score -0.322026-09-27: Risk-Off, score -0.362026-09-28: Risk-Off, score -0.422026-09-29: Strong Risk-Off, score -0.662026-09-30: Strong Risk-Off, score -0.732026-10-01: Strong Risk-Off, score -0.652026-10-02: Strong Risk-Off, score -0.692026-10-03: Strong Risk-Off, score -0.59
2026-07-06above the line: score above zero (risk-on side)2026-10-03

Regime spells in that windownewest first

RegimeFromToStored days
Strong Risk-Off2026-09-292026-10-035
Risk-Off2026-09-252026-09-284
Neutral2026-09-242026-09-241
Risk-On2026-09-232026-09-231
Neutral2026-09-182026-09-225
Risk-Off2026-09-172026-09-171
Strong Risk-Off2026-09-162026-09-161
Risk-Off2026-09-142026-09-152
Strong Risk-Off2026-09-132026-09-131
Risk-Off2026-09-022026-09-1211
Neutral2026-08-182026-09-0115
Risk-On2026-08-172026-08-171
Neutral2026-08-152026-08-162
Risk-On2026-08-132026-08-142
Neutral2026-08-112026-08-122
Risk-On2026-08-102026-08-101
Neutral2026-08-072026-08-093
Risk-On2026-08-042026-08-063
Neutral2026-07-122026-08-0323
Risk-On2026-07-102026-07-112
Neutral2026-07-092026-07-091
Risk-On2026-07-062026-07-083

What drives the reading, with a free account

Signed-in readers see the factor breakdown behind the score (growth, liquidity, risk appetite and volatility, each with its contribution), every z-scored input with its own observation date, the engine's written interpretation and the cross-asset macro overview.

Create an accountSign in

Method and limits

  • Fifteen inputs, most scored on their change over the last five observations as a z-score against their own history and clipped at plus or minus 3, are averaged into four factors weighted Growth 20%, Liquidity 40%, Risk appetite 30% and Volatility 10%. The composite is smoothed on every run (70% of the new raw score, 30% of the previous day's smoothed score). The inputs and the formula are in the methodology.
  • The label is a fixed banding of the smoothed score (edges at about plus or minus 0.17 and 0.5 on the score shown here), with no hysteresis, so a score close to an edge can change label from one day to the next. It describes the backdrop the inputs show; it is not a forecast and not advice.
  • A regime change is announced on Kresmion's public channels only after the new label has held for five consecutive daily readings.
  • Inputs update on their own cadences (daily market series, weekly and monthly economic series); a monthly print can drive several daily readings.

Cite this data

Kresmion z-scores the recent change in each of fifteen inputs against its own history, averages them into four factors weighted 20/40/30/10 (growth, liquidity, risk appetite, volatility), smooths the composite day over day and maps it to one of five regime labels, as described in its methodology.

Upstream: Kresmion regime engine methodology, FRED (a subset of the inputs)

Kresmion, "Kresmion Macro Regime", data as of 2026-10-03, https://kresmion.com/macro/regime. Upstream data: Kresmion regime engine methodology; FRED (a subset of the inputs).

Link to this data (HTML):

<a href="https://kresmion.com/macro/regime">Kresmion Macro Regime (Kresmion)</a>