Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Part of: Ballon d'Or Winner 2026. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.

Yes probability

24h change

-30.9pp

7d change

-19.4pp

Volume

$281K

Resolves by

Oct 31, 2026

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

Other outcomes in this event

Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?17%Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?16%Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?4%Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?2%Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?1%

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-07-15 00:23 UTC. Trade on the venue itself: this page is research context, not an order book. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.