Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Part of: Ballon d'Or Winner 2026. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?" at 5% as of Sep 22, 2026, 15:12 UTC, up from 2% a week earlier.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 608565. Method and limitations.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Jul 11, 2026, this market has traded between 2 percent (Aug 20, 2026) and 45 percent (Jul 19, 2026), across 2,050 recorded prices. The current price of 5 percent is 2.7 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (2 percent), and 3.0 percentage points above where it stood 30 days ago (2 percent).
Weekly closes
| Week start | YES probability |
|---|---|
| Jul 6, 2026 | 13% |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 9% |
| Jul 20, 2026 | 4% |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 4% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 2% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 2% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 2% |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 2% |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 3% |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 3% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 5% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 5% |
Other outcomes in this event
Yes probabilityMarket details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 5 percent, with the NO outcome at 95 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
More sports markets
Live markets priced by the same venue, with their latest YES price.
Background reading
Evergreen explainers from Kresmion Learn on how prediction-market prices work.
Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 608565
Kresmion, "Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-09-22, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-lionel-messi-win-the-2026-ballon-dor. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 608565.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-09-22 15:12 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.