2026-07-22

Prediction market repriced: "Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-07-22?" moved -26pp in 24h to 2%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-07-22?" moved +37pp in 24h to 80%

Prediction market repriced: "Will KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë win on 2026-07-22?" moved -22pp in 24h to 4%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in July 2026?" moved +28pp in 24h to 97%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2026-07-22?" moved -38pp in 24h to 44%

Prediction market repriced: "Will AS Omónoia Leukosías win on 2026-07-22?" moved +20pp in 24h to 78%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?" moved +30pp in 24h to 31%

Algo flow pattern on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July": 62 fills from 42 wallets absorbed at 85.4% ($10,265), consistent with hidden resting size at the level

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC Seoul win on 2026-07-22?" moved +28pp in 24h to 80%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?" moved +52pp in 24h to 64%

Prediction market repriced: "0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?" moved -22pp in 24h to 4%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?" moved +27pp in 24h to 42%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?" moved +22pp in 24h to 66%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?" moved -20pp in 24h to 38%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Santos FC win on 2026-07-21?" moved +30pp in 24h to 82%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?" moved +18pp in 24h to 60%

Prediction market repriced: "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?" moved -19pp in 24h to 35%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?" moved -17pp in 24h to 52%

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC Spartak Trnava win on 2026-07-22?" moved -17pp in 24h to 22%

Prediction market repriced: "Iran full airspace closure by August 31?" moved +16pp in 24h to 60%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bohemian FC win on 2026-07-22?" moved +16pp in 24h to 70%

Prediction market repriced: "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?" moved -15pp in 24h to 57%

Prediction market repriced: "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?" moved -16pp in 24h to 70%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?" moved +15pp in 24h to 17%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC win on 2026-07-22?" moved -18pp in 24h to 34%

Algo flow pattern on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July": 4-level ask ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($64,276 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bucheon FC 1995 win on 2026-07-22?" moved -17pp in 24h to 14%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?" moved +17pp in 24h to 23%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?" moved -15pp in 24h to 14%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?" moved +16pp in 24h to 32%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?" moved -18pp in 24h to 4%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?" moved +15pp in 24h to 34%

Financial conditions loosening: NFCI at -0.54, liquidity supportive

Algo flow pattern on "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?": 4-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($30,241 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement

Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?" moved +24pp in 24h to 70%

OSINT: Global Survey Shows Growing Preference for China Over US

Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?" moved -24pp in 24h to 39%

Prediction market repriced: "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?" moved +26pp in 24h to 43%

Algo flow pattern on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?": 29 fills from 15 wallets absorbed at 87.0% ($15,200), consistent with hidden resting size at the level

OSINT: Brent Oil Expected to Trade $80‑90/Barrel Next Month, Upside Requires Major Disr

Kansas Winter Wheat: crop water stress detected (3.0σ above baseline) - potential ZW=F supply pressure

Saudi Arabia (Dhahran): drought conditions detected - potential oil supply impact

Algo flow pattern on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?": 9-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($32,481 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement

OSINT: Cuban President Decries US Anti‑Marxist Crackdown, Calls It ‘McCarthyism’

Gold +1.24%: significant gain on the session

Oil +1.98%: significant gain on the session

Gold +1.98%: significant gain on the session

Oil +1.63%: significant gain on the session

Gold +1.22%: significant gain on the session

Oil +2.17%: significant gain on the session

Gold +1.48%: significant gain on the session

Oil +2.38%: significant gain on the session

Prediction market repriced: "Ethereum Up or Down on July 22?" moved -25pp in 24h to 25%

Algo flow pattern on "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 22?": 5-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($21,256 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET" moved +42pp in 24h to 92%

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on July 22?" moved -33pp in 24h to 18%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 22?" moved +40pp in 24h to 70%

JUP funding -0.0210% · 1th percentile of its 102d Binance history

ETH RSI 71.6 - overbought (crossed above 70)

NEAR funding -0.0202% · 1th percentile of its 185d Binance history

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?" moved -16pp in 24h to 26%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in July?" moved +16pp in 24h to 86%

ETH RSI 70.2 - overbought (crossed above 70)

SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (11.64x): on-chain trade volume 11.64x liquidity

ARB funding -0.0226% · 1th percentile of its 185d Binance history

ETH RSI 70.2 - overbought (crossed above 70)

SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (23.31x): on-chain trade volume 23.31x liquidity

ME funding -0.0708% · 5th percentile of its 101d Binance history

Algo flow pattern on "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 22?": 4-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($10,009 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement

BALCHEM CORP search volume spiked +100 pts - unusual interest

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd search volume spiked +100 pts - unusual interest

Prediction market repriced: "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?" moved +15pp in 24h to 86%

Prediction market repriced: "SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 22?" moved +16pp in 24h to 76%

Prediction market repriced: "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 22?" moved +16pp in 24h to 66%

ROYAL BANK OF CANADA search volume spiked +41 pts - unusual interest

BALCHEM CORP search volume spiked +100 pts - unusual interest

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd search volume spiked +100 pts - unusual interest

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 748.6% - EPS $-1.11 vs $-0.1308 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 58.5% - EPS $1.04 vs $0.6562 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 21.5% - EPS $0.79 vs $0.6501 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 21.0% - EPS $0.35 vs $0.4429 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 11.4% - EPS $0.96 vs $0.862 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 7.3% - EPS $0.58 vs $0.5406 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 12.5% - EPS $-0.58 vs $-0.663 estimate

ROYAL BANK OF CANADA search volume spiked +41 pts - unusual interest

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 8.4% - EPS $3.57 vs $3.2931 estimate

Prediction market repriced: "Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?" moved +18pp in 24h to 26%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?" moved -19pp in 24h to 69%

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 14.4% - EPS $0.7 vs $0.8181 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 6.7% - EPS $0.39 vs $0.4179 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 16.5% - EPS $0.44 vs $0.5271 estimate

Large debt issuance - $14.4B at 5.25% due 2036

Large debt issuance - $1.2B due 2030

BALCHEM CORP search volume spiked +100 pts - unusual interest

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd search volume spiked +100 pts - unusual interest

AUTONATION, INC. search volume spiked +100 pts - unusual interest

ROYAL BANK OF CANADA search volume spiked +41 pts - unusual interest