2026-08-16

Prediction market repriced: "NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?" moved +61pp in 24h to 98%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Watford FC win on 2026-08-16?" moved +66pp in 24h to 94%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-08-16?" moved -24pp in 24h to 9%

Prediction market repriced: "Will New York City FC win on 2026-08-16?" moved +24pp in 24h to 66%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-08-16?" moved +25pp in 24h to 52%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-08-16?" moved +26pp in 24h to 76%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-08-16?" moved +24pp in 24h to 88%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CA River Plate win on 2026-08-16?" moved +34pp in 24h to 80%

Prediction market repriced: "Will EC Vitória win on 2026-08-16?" moved +25pp in 24h to 66%

Prediction market repriced: "Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-08-16?" moved -21pp in 24h to 2%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?" moved +21pp in 24h to 52%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Racing Club De Lens win on 2026-08-16?" moved +31pp in 24h to 50%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-08-15?" moved +24pp in 24h to 76%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": 7-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($45,599 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?" moved -20pp in 24h to 31%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Fredrikstad FK win on 2026-08-16?" moved +23pp in 24h to 74%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-16?" moved +28pp in 24h to 80%

Prediction market repriced: "Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-08-16?" moved +25pp in 24h to 72%

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC Arouca win on 2026-08-16?" moved +33pp in 24h to 78%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Frosinone Calcio win on 2026-08-16?" moved +22pp in 24h to 78%

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC København win on 2026-08-16?" moved +37pp in 24h to 94%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Molde FK win on 2026-08-16?" moved +36pp in 24h to 78%

Polymarket order flow on "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?": $16,260 in orders from 11 wallets absorbed at the 90% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "Will Southampton FC win on 2026-08-16?" moved -40pp in 24h to 6%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC win on 2026-08-16?" moved -44pp in 24h to 10%

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC Groningen win on 2026-08-16?" moved +53pp in 24h to 92%

Soybeans volume spike - 4.5× the 20-day average (92,880 vs 20,491 avg)

Copper volume spike - 26.6× the 20-day average (37,260 vs 1,400 avg)

Gold volume spike - 21.1× the 20-day average (124,670 vs 5,920 avg)

Silver volume spike - 157.7× the 20-day average (31,855 vs 202 avg)

Platinum volume spike - 2357.4× the 20-day average (11,905 vs 5 avg)

OSINT: Trump applauds Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan Mecca defence pact

OSINT: Iran offers $30k bounty for US soldiers if ground invasion occurs

OSINT: Ukrainian Drone Swarm Strikes Moscow, Heightening Geopolitical Tensions

NASDAQ MINI: speculators net short 39,302 contracts, 13.90% of open interest (-3.8σ vs 3y mean), crowded short positioning

2 insiders at INVX sold $212.8M this week

51 insiders at SE sold $152.9M this week

5 insiders at LFST sold $151.9M this week

5 insiders at LTH sold $662.8M this week

118 insiders at CRWV sold $529.9M this week

2 insiders at SCHW sold $10.0M this week

3 insiders at WBD sold $7.5M this week

3 insiders at MEDP sold $10.9M this week

2 insiders at KN sold $7.0M this week

3 tracked funds increased COIN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased CNA this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced COR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced CLVT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced CHPT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced CLW this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced CORT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased CDLR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced CGNX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased CHDN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased CIEN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased CLMT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased CMC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced CMRC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced CNS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased COHR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

6 tracked funds increased CBRE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased CELC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased CATY this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased CASH this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased CBAN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased CERT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced CAKE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased CAG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased CALM this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BXDC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BUR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased BY this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased CALX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased CF this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased COSO this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased BTBT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BRK-B this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BRR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BNTX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BLCO this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BMRC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BOT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased BHRB this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BHAV this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced BKU this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced BMO this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BND this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BNT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased BR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced BROS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced BRZE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased BSX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased BTSG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced BUD this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BWA this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BWLP this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced CACC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased CACI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased CAI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased CAKE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased CANE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased CARG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

6 tracked funds increased CASY this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased CAT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased CBNK this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

6 tracked funds increased CBOE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased AAOI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

8 tracked funds increased CBRS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased CFBK this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased CG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced AES this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased CHA this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced ACEL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased CHTR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced CL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced ACRS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced CM this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced CMBT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased CMCSA this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased CMPS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced CNI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased CNM this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased COAG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced COF this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced BILL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BEKE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced BDN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced BEN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BKH this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BCAX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased BBIO this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BCML this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BANC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased AXTI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased BAND this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased BCYC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

6 tracked funds increased BKNG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased BTDR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased AVUS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased AVEX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased AVY this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased ATOM this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased ATLO this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced AU this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced AXGN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased ASND this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased ASML this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased ASST this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased AEYE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced ATI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced ATMU this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased ABSI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased AVAV this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased AVBH this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased AVLN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced AVNT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased AXS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased AXSM this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased AYA this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased BAM this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BARK this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased BB this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased ACM this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced BBWI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased ADTN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased BDC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BDRY this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BEAM this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased BEPC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced BGS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BHF this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BHR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

6 tracked funds increased ARXS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased BLLN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BLZE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced BMRN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased ABUS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced ACHR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced BNS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased AAC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BRCB this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased ABVX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased BRKR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BRUN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased ADI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BSAC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased BSBR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased AGL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BTMD this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased ACNT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced BTU this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BURL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased AEIS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased ACA this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BWB this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BZAI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced ASH this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

BITCOIN: speculators net long 3,865 contracts, 18.24% of open interest (+2.6σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

Polymarket order flow on "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 17?": $15,754 in orders from 6 wallets absorbed at the 45% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market