2026-08-16

Prediction market repriced: "NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?" moved +61pp in 24h to 98%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Watford FC win on 2026-08-16?" moved +66pp in 24h to 94%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-08-16?" moved +25pp in 24h to 52%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-08-16?" moved -24pp in 24h to 9%

Prediction market repriced: "Will New York City FC win on 2026-08-16?" moved +24pp in 24h to 66%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CA River Plate win on 2026-08-16?" moved +34pp in 24h to 80%

Prediction market repriced: "Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-08-16?" moved -21pp in 24h to 2%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-08-16?" moved +26pp in 24h to 76%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-08-16?" moved +24pp in 24h to 88%

Prediction market repriced: "Will EC Vitória win on 2026-08-16?" moved +25pp in 24h to 66%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?" moved +21pp in 24h to 52%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Racing Club De Lens win on 2026-08-16?" moved +31pp in 24h to 50%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-08-15?" moved +24pp in 24h to 76%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": 7-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($45,599 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Will Fredrikstad FK win on 2026-08-16?" moved +23pp in 24h to 74%

Prediction market repriced: "Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-08-16?" moved +25pp in 24h to 72%

Prediction market repriced: "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?" moved -20pp in 24h to 31%

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC Arouca win on 2026-08-16?" moved +33pp in 24h to 78%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-16?" moved +28pp in 24h to 80%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Frosinone Calcio win on 2026-08-16?" moved +22pp in 24h to 78%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Molde FK win on 2026-08-16?" moved +36pp in 24h to 78%

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC København win on 2026-08-16?" moved +37pp in 24h to 94%

Polymarket order flow on "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?": $16,260 in orders from 11 wallets absorbed at the 90% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "Will Southampton FC win on 2026-08-16?" moved -40pp in 24h to 6%

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC Groningen win on 2026-08-16?" moved +53pp in 24h to 92%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC win on 2026-08-16?" moved -44pp in 24h to 10%

Platinum volume spike - 2357.4× the 20-day average (11,905 vs 5 avg)

Gold volume spike - 21.1× the 20-day average (124,670 vs 5,920 avg)

Copper volume spike - 26.6× the 20-day average (37,260 vs 1,400 avg)

Soybeans volume spike - 4.5× the 20-day average (92,880 vs 20,491 avg)

Silver volume spike - 157.7× the 20-day average (31,855 vs 202 avg)

OSINT: Trump applauds Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan Mecca defence pact

OSINT: Iran offers $30k bounty for US soldiers if ground invasion occurs

OSINT: Ukrainian Drone Swarm Strikes Moscow, Heightening Geopolitical Tensions

NASDAQ MINI: speculators net short 39,302 contracts, 13.90% of open interest (-3.8σ vs 3y mean), crowded short positioning

2 insiders at INVX sold $212.8M this week

5 insiders at LTH sold $662.8M this week

118 insiders at CRWV sold $529.9M this week

5 insiders at LFST sold $151.9M this week

51 insiders at SE sold $152.9M this week

2 insiders at SCHW sold $10.0M this week

3 insiders at MEDP sold $10.9M this week

2 insiders at INVX sold $212.8M this week

3 insiders at WBD sold $7.5M this week

2 insiders at KN sold $7.0M this week

2 insiders at SCHW sold $10.0M this week

5 tracked funds increased JBIO this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased MAMA this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

6 tracked funds increased XE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased APTV this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

6 tracked funds increased PCG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

15 tracked funds increased GOOGL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased NABL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased POWL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased FENC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased WDH this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

6 tracked funds increased AACP this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased OLLI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased MAC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

6 tracked funds increased NET this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased PFBC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased CLAR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased FGII this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

6 tracked funds increased RBB this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased KRMN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased GXO this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased SF this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced INSM this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased BTSG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased JHX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased LLYVK this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased KVYO this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

6 tracked funds increased ARXS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

7 tracked funds increased SHAZ this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased PDD this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased AMPX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased UL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased SD this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased CPRI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased CMCSA this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased NVO this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased EP this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased DRUG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased SFIX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased CHRD this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased EBMT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased ENB this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased ASTL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased TECH this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased GOOG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased DASH this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased NTR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased ARMK this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased TEM this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased TENX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased EWT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased PCOR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BLDR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased DDOG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased UAL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased AVUS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased DIA this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased RWT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased GDYN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased AMBQ this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased ARCL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased SKM this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased PFSI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased DOCN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased TEL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased XES this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased RIG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased OSIS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased SR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased AAOI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased VAL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased VNCE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased AMZN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased FTI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased IMUX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased VOR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased MLKN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased DYN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased ACDC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased PEG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased WHD this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased NNBR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased HMC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BOKF this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased MAT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased GGB this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BRUN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased ADBE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased ORIC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased GDX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased LFCR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased JOYY this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased IE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased TRMB this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased AACO this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased KEYS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BHF this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased XLRE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased XEL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

6 tracked funds increased XMTR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

6 tracked funds increased PENG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased HUT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased CALY this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased TWI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased GMRS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased RWR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased MANE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased VISN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased BURL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased VOYG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased BAND this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased CWBC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased ATO this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased TSCO this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased SIEB this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased WTI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased WLCO this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased KRG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased JAN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased ABG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased JOE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased HCA this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased GDS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased VSAT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased ASND this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased MYX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased BAM this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased WFC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased MXL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased DSX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased IDXX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased IWF this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased SGML this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased ENTG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased HXL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased AGNC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased DXPE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased P this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased GSK this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased BOOM this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased TLK this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased ITRI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased FUTU this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased GEHC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased TMP this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased QQQ this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased SHLS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased UBER this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased RS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased NCLH this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased CZWI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased MDU this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased LFUS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

BITCOIN: speculators net long 3,865 contracts, 18.24% of open interest (+2.6σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

Polymarket order flow on "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 17?": $15,754 in orders from 6 wallets absorbed at the 45% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market