2026-08-16

Prediction market repriced: "NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?" moved +61pp in 24h to 98%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Watford FC win on 2026-08-16?" moved +66pp in 24h to 94%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-08-16?" moved -24pp in 24h to 9%

Prediction market repriced: "Will New York City FC win on 2026-08-16?" moved +24pp in 24h to 66%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-08-16?" moved +25pp in 24h to 52%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-08-16?" moved +26pp in 24h to 76%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CA River Plate win on 2026-08-16?" moved +34pp in 24h to 80%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-08-16?" moved +24pp in 24h to 88%

Prediction market repriced: "Will EC Vitória win on 2026-08-16?" moved +25pp in 24h to 66%

Prediction market repriced: "Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-08-16?" moved -21pp in 24h to 2%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?" moved +21pp in 24h to 52%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Racing Club De Lens win on 2026-08-16?" moved +31pp in 24h to 50%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-08-15?" moved +24pp in 24h to 76%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": 7-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($45,599 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?" moved -20pp in 24h to 31%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Fredrikstad FK win on 2026-08-16?" moved +23pp in 24h to 74%

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC Arouca win on 2026-08-16?" moved +33pp in 24h to 78%

Prediction market repriced: "Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-08-16?" moved +25pp in 24h to 72%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-16?" moved +28pp in 24h to 80%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Molde FK win on 2026-08-16?" moved +36pp in 24h to 78%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Frosinone Calcio win on 2026-08-16?" moved +22pp in 24h to 78%

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC København win on 2026-08-16?" moved +37pp in 24h to 94%

Polymarket order flow on "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?": $16,260 in orders from 11 wallets absorbed at the 90% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "Will Southampton FC win on 2026-08-16?" moved -40pp in 24h to 6%

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC Groningen win on 2026-08-16?" moved +53pp in 24h to 92%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC win on 2026-08-16?" moved -44pp in 24h to 10%

Gold volume spike - 21.1× the 20-day average (124,670 vs 5,920 avg)

Silver volume spike - 157.7× the 20-day average (31,855 vs 202 avg)

Soybeans volume spike - 4.5× the 20-day average (92,880 vs 20,491 avg)

Platinum volume spike - 2357.4× the 20-day average (11,905 vs 5 avg)

Copper volume spike - 26.6× the 20-day average (37,260 vs 1,400 avg)

OSINT: Trump applauds Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan Mecca defence pact

OSINT: Iran offers $30k bounty for US soldiers if ground invasion occurs

OSINT: Ukrainian Drone Swarm Strikes Moscow, Heightening Geopolitical Tensions

NASDAQ MINI: speculators net short 39,302 contracts, 13.90% of open interest (-3.8σ vs 3y mean), crowded short positioning

2 insiders at INVX sold $212.8M this week

51 insiders at SE sold $152.9M this week

5 insiders at LTH sold $662.8M this week

118 insiders at CRWV sold $529.9M this week

5 insiders at LFST sold $151.9M this week

2 insiders at SCHW sold $10.0M this week

3 insiders at MEDP sold $10.9M this week

2 insiders at INVX sold $212.8M this week

3 insiders at WBD sold $7.5M this week

2 insiders at KN sold $7.0M this week

2 insiders at SCHW sold $10.0M this week

3 tracked funds increased JLL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced THC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased WH this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced MKC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced BNS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced VICI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased AZO this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased SUNB this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds reduced CDNS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced QS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced JD this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced CRBU this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced VSH this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced CRSP this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced CE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced CRCT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced RGTI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced LXU this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced OBDC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced ATI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased RTX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased VNOM this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased IPX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased HPK this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced FWDI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced TRX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds reduced EWJ this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced RFIL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced OLN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced J this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced IHRT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced VIA this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced GENI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced BRZE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced TNC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced DBRG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced AMRX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced LEG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced CHPT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced BBSI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced ALAB this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced SIGI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced RMBS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced TLN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced AXIA this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds reduced PLXS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced SO this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced GFI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced DOV this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced GTX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased HL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased SQM this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds increased CERT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased NKSH this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased HP this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased UVV this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced IREN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced SYF this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced VRNS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced BUD this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced BABA this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced IWB this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced PXED this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced CTAS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced CENX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced DNN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced KODK this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced CAKE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced REPL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds reduced ROKU this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced KVUE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced LEVI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced XLI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced DAR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced MEDP this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced IT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced SHIP this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced DLO this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced BX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced YUM this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds reduced VIK this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced BEN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced TRV this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced CEVA this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced VECO this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced HUYA this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced APPF this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced STT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced CNS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced HCI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced BKU this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced VIV this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced WEC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced YSG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced BGC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds reduced RHI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced MET this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced RDN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds reduced MSTR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds reduced VTRS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced EWP this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced FCN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced INVZ this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced ICHR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced HSIC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced ANF this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced RES this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced IRDM this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased LPL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased COP this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased IEO this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased GCTS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased AVY this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased LITE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased GIII this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased REGN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased ITRG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds increased SSTK this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds increased VSNT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

6 tracked funds increased DPC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced BILL this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced BGS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced TTMI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced NGNE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced PFG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced TXG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced NESR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced POST this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced SYBT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced NTNX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced HMY this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced LC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced HNGE this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced CM this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced DEC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced TSN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced KLIC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced PONY this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced BW this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced BDN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

5 tracked funds reduced OPEN this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced IESC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced LQDT this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced ECG this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced MFC this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced VCR this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

4 tracked funds reduced AYI this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced CRK this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced QBTS this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced IBP this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced PRMB this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

3 tracked funds reduced RRX this 2026Q2, institutional consensus

BITCOIN: speculators net long 3,865 contracts, 18.24% of open interest (+2.6σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

Polymarket order flow on "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 17?": $15,754 in orders from 6 wallets absorbed at the 45% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market