2026-08-31

Platinum volume spike - 4.7× the 20-day average (26 vs 5 avg)

Cotton volume spike - 944.0× the 20-day average (22,893 vs 24 avg)

Soybeans volume spike - 10.5× the 20-day average (118,760 vs 11,326 avg)

OSINT: Arab Nations Export 6.9M bpd Through US Navy Blockade Line

OSINT: Rising Iran Geopolitical Tensions Raise Market Alerts

Saudi Arabia (Dhahran): drought conditions detected - potential oil supply impact

OSINT: Strong Dollar & Rate Hike Fears Threaten Bitcoin, Prompt Market Turmoil

Saudi Arabia (Dhahran): drought conditions detected - potential oil supply impact

OSINT: US conducts second strike on Iran's Larak Island, explosions reported

OSINT: Oil surges to three-week high as gold retreats

OSINT: Odyssey Insights Highlight Rising Climate Chaos Risks

Five (al052026) - Cat 0, 30 kt - Gulf production threat

Five (al052026) - Cat 0, 30 kt - Gulf production threat

OSINT: Cocaine overtakes oil as Colombia's top export

OSINT: Modi urges Putin to end Ukraine war during bilateral talks

NATURAL GAS: speculators net long 264,655 contracts, 65.71% of open interest (+2.3σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

OSINT: Oil Prices Surge Amid War, Treasury Predicts Future Drop

Five (al052026) - Cat 0, 30 kt - Gulf production threat

Five (al052026) - Cat 0, 30 kt - Gulf production threat

OSINT: Arab Nations Export 6.9M bpd Through US Navy Blockade Line

Five (al052026) - Cat 0, 30 kt - Gulf production threat

Five (al052026) - Cat 0, 30 kt - Gulf production threat

OSINT: Energy price surge lifts inflation to 2.9%

OSINT: Ukrainian security analyst Oleksii Melnyk outlines conflict outlook

Prediction market repriced: "Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?" moved +72pp in 24h to 87%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": $79,990 in orders from 52 wallets absorbed at the 42% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Prediction market repriced: "Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?" moved -23pp in 24h to 3%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on August 31?" moved +40pp in 24h to 40%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-08-31?" moved +32pp in 24h to 76%

Prediction market repriced: "Will "The Whisper Man (2026)" be the top US Netflix movie this week?" moved -36pp in 24h to 6%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": 5-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($24,729 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?" moved -20pp in 24h to 68%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?" moved +23pp in 24h to 68%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian president" moved +21pp in 24h to 44%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Iran target Qatar by August 31, 2026?" moved +20pp in 24h to 21%

Prediction market repriced: "Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by September 30?" moved -36pp in 24h to 14%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-08-30?" moved -50pp in 24h to 14%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Atlético San Luis win on 2026-08-30?" moved +53pp in 24h to 70%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-08-30?" moved +22pp in 24h to 98%

OSINT: Odyssey Insights Highlight Rising Climate Chaos Risks

OSINT: Govt Announces Pay Rise for Military and Police

OSINT: Modi urges Putin to end Ukraine war during bilateral talks

Prediction market repriced: "Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-08-31?" moved -15pp in 24h to 32%

Prediction market repriced: "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" moved +15pp in 24h to 96%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": 4-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($135,704 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pre

OSINT: Arab Nations Export 6.9M bpd Through US Navy Blockade Line

OSINT: Arab Nations Export 6.9M bpd Through US Navy Blockade Line

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?": 4-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($31,220 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predic

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC København win on 2026-08-31?" moved +16pp in 24h to 86%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Burgos CF win on 2026-08-31?" moved -18pp in 24h to 38%

Polymarket order flow on "Fed rate hike in 2026?": 4-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($37,646 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market

OSINT: Ukrainian security analyst Oleksii Melnyk outlines conflict outlook

Polymarket order flow on "Fed rate hike in 2026?": $12,780 in orders from 5 wallets absorbed at the 67% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

4 insiders at LITE sold $45.1M this week

2 insiders at ANET sold $63.4M this week

3 insiders at CRWV sold $27.9M this week

3 insiders at LTH sold $378.3M this week

2 insiders at RLAY sold $116.5M this week

3 insiders at JMKE sold $120.8M this week

Prediction market repriced: "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 31?" moved -54pp in 24h to 2%

4 insiders at LITE sold $45.1M this week

3 insiders at CRWV sold $27.9M this week

2 insiders at RLAY sold $116.5M this week

3 insiders at LTH sold $378.3M this week

3 insiders at JMKE sold $120.8M this week

4 insiders at LITE sold $45.1M this week

3 insiders at CRWV sold $27.9M this week

3 insiders at LTH sold $378.3M this week

2 insiders at RLAY sold $116.5M this week

3 insiders at JMKE sold $120.8M this week

4 insiders at LITE sold $45.1M this week

3 insiders at CRWV sold $27.9M this week

3 insiders at LTH sold $378.3M this week

2 insiders at RLAY sold $116.5M this week

3 insiders at JMKE sold $120.8M this week

EPLUS INC search volume spiked +49 pts, unusual interest

OSINT: After Fed Chair Waller's hawkish remarks, JPMorgan traders abandoned their short

OSINT: Market Anticipates Fed Rate Hike in September Amid Mixed Conviction

OSINT: US stocks dip as indices fall, Tesla jumps, FTC sues Amazon

OSINT: Odyssey Insights Highlight Rising Climate Chaos Risks

OSINT: Debate Over CBD Use for Dog Health Gains Public Attention

GERDAU S.A. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

OSINT: Fomo Buys Mobula for $17M as Weekly Volume Tops $1B

OSINT: Xinyuan Fund AI ETF Feeder gets new sole manager after Liu Yutao exit

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

ARROW ELECTRONICS, INC. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

FIRST FINANCIAL BANKSHARES INC search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

Bond issued at elevated rate 5.25%, above the credit-stress threshold

Life360, Inc. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

EPLUS INC search volume spiked +49 pts, unusual interest

OSINT: Micron Shares Stay Flat Even After Trump Endorses Company

GERDAU S.A. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 151.0%, EPS $-0.68 vs $-0.2709 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 40.6%, EPS $0.042 vs $0.0707 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 31.9%, EPS $-0.25 vs $-0.3672 estimate

Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 55.1%, EPS $0.22 vs $0.4896 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 2698.0%, EPS $-2.12 vs $0.0816 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 107.0%, EPS $0.06 vs $-0.8568 estimate

Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 18.1%, EPS $0.31 vs $0.2625 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 26.9%, EPS $-0.11 vs $-0.0867 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 7.9%, EPS $0.062 vs $0.0673 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 54.2%, EPS $-809.00 vs $-524.4873 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 38.0%, EPS $-0.80 vs $-1.2898 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 13.9%, EPS $-0.72 vs $-0.8364 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 42.5%, EPS $-0.09 vs $-0.1566 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 24.6%, EPS $-0.91 vs $-1.207 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 52.5%, EPS $-0.14 vs $-0.0918 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 60.8%, EPS $-0.08 vs $-0.204 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 23.8%, EPS $0.60 vs $0.4848 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 9.8%, EPS $0.35 vs $0.3188 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 38.4%, EPS $0.09 vs $0.1462 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 20.0%, EPS $-0.20 vs $-0.2499 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 45.6%, EPS $0.7394 vs $0.508 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 28.2%, EPS $-0.41 vs $-0.5712 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 22.4%, EPS $0.52 vs $0.4249 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 35.5%, EPS $0.11 vs $0.1705 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 9.7%, EPS $1.92 vs $1.7495 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 5.6%, EPS $1.74 vs $1.6471 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 10.5%, EPS $-0.52 vs $-0.5807 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 52.3%, EPS $-1.46 vs $-3.06 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 195.9%, EPS $-0.09 vs $0.0938 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 8.5%, EPS $3.44 vs $3.1714 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 36.7%, EPS $-0.23 vs $-0.1683 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 14.2%, EPS $-0.07 vs $-0.0816 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 5.8%, EPS $-0.80 vs $-0.7558 estimate

Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 48.4%, EPS $-0.28 vs $-0.1887 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 14.6%, EPS $-0.39 vs $-0.3403 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 16.0%, EPS $-0.27 vs $-0.3213 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 15.9%, EPS $0.26 vs $0.2244 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 44.6%, EPS $0.26 vs $0.4692 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 41.2%, EPS $-0.81 vs $-1.377 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 18.4%, EPS $0.25 vs $0.2112 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 63.3%, EPS $0.12 vs $0.3266 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 51.8%, EPS $-56.05 vs $-36.9189 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 39.2%, EPS $-1.38 vs $-0.9914 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 7.1%, EPS $0.06 vs $0.0646 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 23.5%, EPS $0.07 vs $0.0915 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 22.0%, EPS $-0.18 vs $-0.2309 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 9.4%, EPS $-0.29 vs $-0.2652 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 71.4%, EPS $-0.05 vs $-0.175 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 24.9%, EPS $0.49 vs $0.3924 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 19.0%, EPS $9038.30 vs $7594.5732 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 135.3%, EPS $-0.12 vs $-0.051 estimate

Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 316.1%, EPS $-0.30 vs $-0.0721 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 100.0%, EPS $0.00 vs $-0.102 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 9.5%, EPS $0.06 vs $0.0663 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 20.1%, EPS $0.30 vs $0.3753 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 71.7%, EPS $0.11 vs $0.3889 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 7.8%, EPS $-0.11 vs $-0.102 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 8.2%, EPS $0.369 vs $0.3411 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 101.7%, EPS $0.34 vs $-20.5632 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 43.3%, EPS $0.19 vs $0.1326 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 686.9%, EPS $-0.79 vs $-0.1004 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 32.3%, EPS $-4.57 vs $-3.4544 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 79.2%, EPS $-1.06 vs $-0.5916 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 151.4%, EPS $0.11 vs $-0.2142 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 51.9%, EPS $-3.24 vs $-2.1328 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 314.4%, EPS $-0.54 vs $0.2519 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 7.1%, EPS $0.44 vs $0.4107 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 19.9%, EPS $1.56 vs $1.3014 estimate

Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 5.5%, EPS $1.47 vs $1.3937 estimate

Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 150.2%, EPS $0.62 vs $0.2478 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 61.6%, EPS $0.18 vs $0.4692 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 7.9%, EPS $0.52 vs $0.5644 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 12.8%, EPS $-0.53 vs $-0.6076 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 8.1%, EPS $-0.43 vs $-0.3978 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 31.1%, EPS $-0.78 vs $-0.5951 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 3512.8%, EPS $45.95 vs $-1.3464 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 11.6%, EPS $0.28 vs $0.2509 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 5.3%, EPS $0.64 vs $0.6757 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 287.9%, EPS $665.39 vs $171.5177 estimate

USDC/USDT has $62.5M 24h volume on $884K liquidity (71x turnover): thin market, elevated slippage

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August?" moved -34pp in 24h to 2%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?" moved -39pp in 24h to 9%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 31?": 5-level ask ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($14,736 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predicti

Prediction market repriced: "Ethereum Up or Down on August 31?" moved -34pp in 24h to 17%

Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 31?" moved -24pp in 24h to 26%

ETH liquidations totaled $17.1M in the past hour, 99% from long positions · above the 95th percentile of its 30d hourly history (OKX)

OSINT: Strategy Opposes MSCI Proposal, Claims Bitcoin Treasury Firms Targeted Again

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 1?" moved +15pp in 24h to 76%

OSINT: Ireland bars crypto from new tax-advantaged accounts

OSINT: Fomo Buys Mobula for $17M as Weekly Volume Tops $1B

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?" moved -16pp in 24h to 10%

OSINT: Sunrise Launches $PONS on Solana as Meme/Stock Pairs Lead DeFi Trend

OSINT: Bitcoin steadies at $78K, Solana jumps 40% as crypto ETFs draw $153M weekly

OSINT: Bitmine's holdings rise to 4.9% of Ethereum supply after adding 53.5K ETH

INJ funding -0.0628% · 4th percentile of its 225d Binance history

SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (1.28x): on-chain trade volume 1.28x liquidity

W funding -0.0206% · 2th percentile of its 142d Binance history

OSINT: After Fed Chair Waller's hawkish remarks, JPMorgan traders abandoned their short

OSINT: US Long-Term Treasury Yields Rise, Yield Curve Steepens

OSINT: Market Anticipates Fed Rate Hike in September Amid Mixed Conviction

OSINT: Odyssey Insights Highlight Rising Climate Chaos Risks

OSINT: Govt Announces Pay Rise for Military and Police

OSINT: Cocaine overtakes oil as Colombia's top export

OSINT: Modi urges Putin to end Ukraine war during bilateral talks

OSINT: Oil Prices Surge Amid War, Treasury Predicts Future Drop

OSINT: Arab Nations Export 6.9M bpd Through US Navy Blockade Line

OSINT: Energy price surge lifts inflation to 2.9%

OSINT: Ukrainian security analyst Oleksii Melnyk outlines conflict outlook