Kresmion signals archive
203 cross-asset signals fired across commodity, crypto, equity, forex, macro. See also the Kresmion brief for 2026-09-05.
commodity (21)
- criticalriver_transport_disruptionCL=F
Rhine R. (Kaub): critical low water (33.0 cm), Rhine diesel/coal barge restriction
- criticalriver_transport_disruptionCL=F
Rhine R. (Kaub): critical low water (36.0 cm), Rhine diesel/coal barge restriction
- criticalriver_transport_disruptionCL=F
Rhine R. (Kaub): critical low water (35.0 cm), Rhine diesel/coal barge restriction
- criticalriver_transport_disruptionCL=F
Rhine R. (Kaub): critical low water (38.0 cm), Rhine diesel/coal barge restriction
- highosint_energy_eventOIL
OSINT: Nano Nuclear partners with Baker Hughes, adds Enveniam to KRONOS project
- highosint_energy_eventOIL
OSINT: Bank of Nanjing Rumored to Appoint Long Yi as Vice President
- highosint_energy_eventOIL
OSINT: US probes 50 Joint Chiefs members for Iran war leaks
- mediumcommodity_moveGOLD
Gold -1.38%: significant decline on the session
- mediumosint_eventOIL
OSINT: Russia Initiates Arctic Oil Export Project
- mediumNET_LONG_EXTREMENG=F
NATURAL GAS: speculators net long 262,793 contracts, 66.94% of open interest (+2.4σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning
- mediumosint_eventOIL
OSINT: Explosive Devices Found Near Two Saxony Power Substations
- mediumosint_eventOIL
OSINT: UN Pushes New World Map Standard Amid Accuracy Debate
- mediumosint_eventOIL
OSINT: Russia aims for 80% domestic car market share by 2035
- mediumosint_eventOIL
OSINT: Iran Rejects US Deal, Signals Continuation of War
- mediumosint_eventOIL
OSINT: US Intercepts Oil Tankers with Venezuelan Businessman's Aid
- mediumosint_eventOIL
OSINT: Trump Deploys Negotiators to Russia, Ukraine to Restart Dialogue
- mediumosint_eventOIL
OSINT: Venezuela signs new oil exploitation contract, says Delcy Rodríguez
- mediumosint_eventOIL
OSINT: Venezuela hires US firm to clear earthquake debris
- mediumosint_eventOIL
OSINT: US OKs $5 bn Arms Deal to Saudi Arabia Amid Saudi-Iran Conflict
- mediumarctic_route_openCL=F
Arctic ice extent 4.66 Mkm² on 2026-09-03 - -1.62 vs 1981-2010 median (-25.8%); NSR open: False
- mediumosint_eventOIL
OSINT: FAW Jiefang Net Profit Jumps 722%, Leads New Energy Vehicle Trend
macro (46)
- criticalPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-09-05?" moved +64pp in 24h to 87%
- highALGO_FLOW
Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": $10,785 in orders from 13 wallets absorbed at the 51% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Israel closes its airspace by September 30?" moved +33pp in 24h to 72%
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Boyacá Chicó FC win on 2026-09-05?" moved +52pp in 24h to 76%
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFTRUB
Prediction market repriced: "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?" moved -22pp in 24h to 58%
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-09-05?" moved -22pp in 24h to 14%
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-09-05?" moved -20pp in 24h to 16%
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will PSV win on 2026-09-05?" moved +20pp in 24h to 60%
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-09-05?" moved -31pp in 24h to 30%
- highALGO_FLOW
Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": 8-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($86,977 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred
- highALGO_FLOW
Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": $13,070 in orders from 59 wallets absorbed at the 49% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-05?" moved -25pp in 24h to 24%
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-09-05?" moved +23pp in 24h to 74%
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Fulham FC win on 2026-09-05?" moved +24pp in 24h to 66%
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-09-05?" moved +22pp in 24h to 43%
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-09-05?" moved -20pp in 24h to 22%
- highALGO_FLOWCL=F
Polymarket order flow on "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?": $14,413 in orders from 14 wallets absorbed at the 82% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predict
- highALGO_FLOW
Polymarket order flow on "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?": 5-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($33,666 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predictio
- highALGO_FLOWDXY
Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep": 5-level ask ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($12,369 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred
- highALGO_FLOWRUB=X
Polymarket order flow on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?": 6-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($13,548 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market
- highALGO_FLOWDXY
Polymarket order flow on "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?": 6-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($11,814 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-09-04?" moved +28pp in 24h to 76%
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?" moved -27pp in 24h to 10%
- mediumosint_eventSHIPPING
OSINT: Russia Initiates Arctic Oil Export Project
- mediumosint_eventSHIPPING
OSINT: Cross-contamination Risks Highlighted, Prompting Food-Safety Measures
- mediumPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?" moved +16pp in 24h to 24%
- mediumPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?" moved +18pp in 24h to 40%
- mediumosint_eventDEFENSE
OSINT: Explosive Devices Found Near Two Saxony Power Substations
- mediumosint_eventDEFENSE
OSINT: UN Pushes New World Map Standard Amid Accuracy Debate
- mediumosint_eventSHIPPING
OSINT: UN Pushes New World Map Standard Amid Accuracy Debate
- mediumPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "FC Bayern München leading at halftime?" moved -20pp in 24h to 46%
- mediumPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Falcons Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?" moved -19pp in 24h to 2%
- mediumPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-09-05?" moved -17pp in 24h to 8%
- mediumshipping_spikeSHIPPING
tanker_freight_etf shipping +7.5%, potential inflation signal
- mediumosint_eventDEFENSE
OSINT: Iran Rejects US Deal, Signals Continuation of War
- mediumosint_eventSHIPPING
OSINT: US Intercepts Oil Tankers with Venezuelan Businessman's Aid
- mediumosint_eventSHIPPING
OSINT: Baltic States Consider Halting Russian Grain Transit
- mediumosint_eventDEFENSE
OSINT: Trump Deploys Negotiators to Russia, Ukraine to Restart Dialogue
- mediumosint_eventSHIPPING
OSINT: US Raises Alerts Over Rising Disease and Crime in Cuba
- mediumosint_eventSHIPPING
OSINT: US OKs $5 bn Arms Deal to Saudi Arabia Amid Saudi-Iran Conflict
- mediumosint_eventDEFENSE
OSINT: US OKs $5 bn Arms Deal to Saudi Arabia Amid Saudi-Iran Conflict
- mediumPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?" moved -17pp in 24h to 71%
- mediumALGO_FLOW
Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept": 4-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($18,056 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred
- mediumALGO_FLOW
Polymarket order flow on "Israel closes its airspace by September 30?": 4-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($15,630 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market
- mediumALGO_FLOW
Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the Se": 4-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($14,539 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred
- mediumNFCI_RELIEFMARKET
Financial conditions loosening: NFCI at -0.56, liquidity supportive
equity (100)
2 insiders at CRWV sold $37.9M this week
8 insiders at DDOG sold $37.0M this week
3 insiders at ESTC sold $45.8M this week
2 insiders at NVDA sold $417.4M this week
FDA approves ZAVZPRET (PFIZER)
FDA approves CIBINQO (PFIZER)
2 insiders at STX sold $25.1M this week
Activist 13D filing, dividend
Activist 13D filing, engage in discussions
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?" moved -20pp in 24h to 69%
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?" moved -42pp in 24h to 24%
QUHUO Ltd search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
OSINT: Danny Boyle to Direct Film on Rupert Murdoch’s Empire Origins
OSINT: Cross-contamination Risks Highlighted, Prompting Food-Safety Measures
OSINT: Explosive Devices Found Near Two Saxony Power Substations
DOW INC. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
Bond issued at elevated rate 5.05%, above the credit-stress threshold
House of Doge Inc. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
TransUnion search volume spiked +28 pts, unusual interest
OSINT: GAC, Huawei Qiankun unveil next-gen vehicle; Qijing GX7 pre-sale ¥24.99M
OSINT: Russia aims for 80% domestic car market share by 2035
Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 21.1%, EPS $0.21 vs $0.1734 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 466.4%, EPS $-104.00 vs $-18.36 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 21.4%, EPS $-0.31 vs $-0.3944 estimate
Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 20.5%, EPS $-0.30 vs $-0.3774 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 55.1%, EPS $0.76 vs $1.6938 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 58.4%, EPS $-0.08 vs $-0.0505 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 123.6%, EPS $-0.125 vs $-0.0559 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 13.9%, EPS $-0.36 vs $-0.4182 estimate
Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 96.1%, EPS $-0.12 vs $-0.0612 estimate
Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 55.1%, EPS $0.22 vs $0.4896 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 14.2%, EPS $-0.07 vs $-0.0816 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 67.8%, EPS $1.94 vs $6.018 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 14.0%, EPS $-0.34 vs $-0.3953 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 35.2%, EPS $-0.08 vs $-0.1234 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 16.7%, EPS $-0.17 vs $-0.204 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 773.8%, EPS $-0.44 vs $0.0653 estimate
Q2-2027: Missed consensus by 9.6%, EPS $0.09 vs $0.0996 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 32.2%, EPS $0.083 vs $0.1224 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 23.7%, EPS $-0.70 vs $-0.918 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 13.8%, EPS $1.01 vs $0.8874 estimate
Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 6.3%, EPS $0.87 vs $0.8181 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 25.8%, EPS $-0.48 vs $-0.3815 estimate
Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 31.1%, EPS $0.24 vs $0.1831 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 47.1%, EPS $-0.12 vs $-0.0816 estimate
Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 39.9%, EPS $-0.83 vs $-1.3812 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 16.9%, EPS $-1.55 vs $-1.326 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 67.5%, EPS $-0.27 vs $-0.1612 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 9.9%, EPS $0.37 vs $0.3367 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 14.3%, EPS $1.45 vs $1.2682 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 6.1%, EPS $-0.51 vs $-0.4807 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 15.9%, EPS $-0.22 vs $-0.2615 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 30.1%, EPS $-0.23 vs $-0.1768 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 47.4%, EPS $-0.12 vs $-0.2282 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 7.3%, EPS $0.197 vs $0.1836 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 432.8%, EPS $-0.84 vs $0.2524 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 20.4%, EPS $322.48 vs $267.7301 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 25.3%, EPS $-0.08 vs $-0.1071 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 13.0%, EPS $-0.70 vs $-0.8045 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 12.0%, EPS $0.09 vs $0.1023 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 154.9%, EPS $-0.13 vs $-0.051 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 58.3%, EPS $0.215 vs $0.516 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 31.4%, EPS $-0.56 vs $-0.816 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 39.8%, EPS $-0.83 vs $-0.5935 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 43.7%, EPS $-0.30 vs $-0.2087 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 101.9%, EPS $0.17 vs $0.0842 estimate
Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 15.0%, EPS $0.64 vs $0.5566 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 5.4%, EPS $0.96 vs $0.9112 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 18.6%, EPS $-0.98 vs $-0.8262 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 28.2%, EPS $-0.41 vs $-0.5712 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 256.6%, EPS $0.24 vs $0.0673 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 7.2%, EPS $24.30 vs $22.6745 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 53.7%, EPS $-0.13 vs $-0.2805 estimate
Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 7.5%, EPS $0.67 vs $0.6233 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 333.3%, EPS $-0.69 vs $0.2958 estimate
Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 22.9%, EPS $0.16 vs $0.2074 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 8.2%, EPS $0.88 vs $0.9587 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 9.4%, EPS $0.18 vs $0.1645 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 422.9%, EPS $0.40 vs $0.0765 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 43.9%, EPS $0.91 vs $0.6325 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 303.6%, EPS $0.77 vs $0.1908 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 5.9%, EPS $-0.39 vs $-0.3681 estimate
Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 23.2%, EPS $-5.02 vs $-6.5331 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 9.8%, EPS $6.29 vs $5.7281 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 73.2%, EPS $-0.07 vs $-0.2616 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 77.6%, EPS $0.61 vs $0.3434 estimate
Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 133.8%, EPS $-0.50 vs $1.4809 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 16.3%, EPS $1.06 vs $0.9115 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 117.6%, EPS $0.02 vs $-0.1136 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 23.0%, EPS $0.33 vs $0.4284 estimate
Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 405.7%, EPS $-0.80 vs $-0.1582 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 6.6%, EPS $0.29 vs $0.272 estimate
Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 24.0%, EPS $0.95 vs $0.766 estimate
Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 12.1%, EPS $0.10 vs $0.0892 estimate
OSINT: Poland Maintains Crypto Bill Veto Amid Expanding Zondacrypto Scandal
OSINT: Venezuela hires US firm to clear earthquake debris
OSINT: FAW Jiefang Net Profit Jumps 722%, Leads New Energy Vehicle Trend
Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corp search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest
OSINT: Hotel denies woman entry for ACG outfit, sparks controversy
MSFT RSI 72.4, overbought (crossed above 70)
crypto (16)
- highoi_spikeUNI
UNI open interest +20.1% over 24h, OI surge
ARB open interest +21.8% over 24h, OI surge
- highALGO_FLOWBTC
Polymarket order flow on "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?": 6-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($47,437 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market
- highALGO_FLOWBTC
Polymarket order flow on "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 5?": 6-level ask ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($17,288 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predic
- highoi_spikeNEAR
NEAR open interest +32.0% over 24h, OI surge
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFT
Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $2,600 August 31-September 6?" moved -30pp in 24h to 2%
- highPROBABILITY_SHIFTBTC
Prediction market repriced: "Bitcoin Up or Down on September 5?" moved +22pp in 24h to 72%
- mediumdex_volume_liquiditySOL
SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.55x): on-chain trade volume 0.55x liquidity
- mediumosint_eventCRYPTO
OSINT: WatcherGuru Analyzes XRP's Prospects for $2 Target by End-2026
- mediumosint_eventCRYPTO
OSINT: Poland Maintains Crypto Bill Veto Amid Expanding Zondacrypto Scandal
- mediumdex_volume_liquiditySOL
SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.86x): on-chain trade volume 0.86x liquidity
- mediumPROBABILITY_SHIFTETH
Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in September?" moved -15pp in 24h to 28%
- mediumosint_eventCRYPTO
OSINT: Bitcoin ETFs draw $3.8B in three-week surge, strongest of 2026
- mediumALGO_FLOWETH
Polymarket order flow on "Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?": $13,240 in orders from 3 wallets absorbed at the 41% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market
- mediumdex_volume_liquiditySOL
SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.96x): on-chain trade volume 0.96x liquidity
- mediumfunding_percentileINJ
INJ funding -0.0746% · 3th percentile of its 230d Binance history
forex (17)
- mediumosint_eventFOREX
OSINT: Parmesan Dishes from Peru to Italy Top International Rankings
- mediumosint_eventFOREX
OSINT: Russia Initiates Arctic Oil Export Project
- mediumosint_eventFOREX
OSINT: Explosive Devices Found Near Two Saxony Power Substations
- mediumosint_eventFOREX
OSINT: UN Pushes New World Map Standard Amid Accuracy Debate
- mediumosint_eventFOREX
OSINT: Russia aims for 80% domestic car market share by 2035
- mediumosint_eventFOREX
OSINT: US Intercepts Oil Tankers with Venezuelan Businessman's Aid
- mediumosint_eventFOREX
OSINT: Baltic States Consider Halting Russian Grain Transit
- mediumosint_eventFOREX
OSINT: Iran Rejects US Deal, Signals Continuation of War
- mediumosint_eventFOREX
OSINT: Poland Maintains Crypto Bill Veto Amid Expanding Zondacrypto Scandal
- mediumosint_eventFOREX
OSINT: Bank of Nanjing Rumored to Appoint Long Yi as Vice President
- mediumosint_eventFOREX
OSINT: Trump Deploys Negotiators to Russia, Ukraine to Restart Dialogue
- mediumosint_eventFOREX
OSINT: US OKs $5 bn Arms Deal to Saudi Arabia Amid Saudi-Iran Conflict
- mediumosint_eventFOREX
OSINT: US Raises Alerts Over Rising Disease and Crime in Cuba
- mediumosint_eventFOREX
OSINT: Venezuela hires US firm to clear earthquake debris
- mediumosint_eventFOREX
OSINT: Venezuela signs new oil exploitation contract, says Delcy Rodríguez
- mediumosint_eventFOREX
OSINT: FAW Jiefang Net Profit Jumps 722%, Leads New Energy Vehicle Trend
- mediumosint_eventFOREX
OSINT: World's Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund to Trim $80B US Treasury Holdings