2026-10-11

Prediction market repriced: "Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-10-11?" moved +30pp in 24h to 93%

Prediction market repriced: "Will EC Bahia win on 2026-10-11?" moved +22pp in 24h to 78%

Prediction market repriced: "US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?" moved +22pp in 24h to 92%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-11?" moved -26pp in 24h to 42%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-10-11?" moved -21pp in 24h to 12%

Prediction market repriced: "Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-10-11?" moved +23pp in 24h to 82%

Prediction market repriced: "Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?" moved -52pp in 24h to 14%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?" moved +39pp in 24h to 80%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Valencia CF win on 2026-10-11?" moved -25pp in 24h to 6%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-11?" moved -35pp in 24h to 26%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Legia Warszawa win on 2026-10-11?" moved +26pp in 24h to 74%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no Hormuz agreement?": $20,756 in orders from 13 wallets absorbed at the 88% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?" moved +20pp in 24h to 36%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-10-11?" moved -24pp in 24h to 3%

Prediction market repriced: "Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?" moved -26pp in 24h to 36%

Prediction market repriced: "Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8?" moved +22pp in 24h to 74%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-10-11?" moved +56pp in 24h to 90%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Oct": $13,944 in orders from 10 wallets absorbed at the 84% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Prediction market repriced: "Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-10-11?" moved +27pp in 24h to 64%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Kataller Toyama win on 2026-10-11?" moved +27pp in 24h to 73%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Assimi Goïta be out as President of Mali by June 30, 2027?" moved -36pp in 24h to 28%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-10-10?" moved -31pp in 24h to 14%

Prediction market repriced: "Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 6?" moved +26pp in 24h to 76%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Querétaro FC win on 2026-10-10?" moved +44pp in 24h to 90%

Prediction market repriced: "Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-10-10?" moved +57pp in 24h to 94%

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC Arouca win on 2026-10-11?" moved +17pp in 24h to 64%

Polymarket order flow on "2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House": $12,497 in orders from 6 wallets absorbed at the 29% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this prediction market

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the S": 4-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($15,215 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Polymarket order flow on "2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House": 4-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($262,588 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market

Prediction market repriced: "Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31?" moved +18pp in 24h to 69%

Prediction market repriced: "Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-11?" moved -16pp in 24h to 36%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-10-11?" moved +15pp in 24h to 82%

Prediction market repriced: "Exact Score: Liverpool FC 0 - 0 Manchester City FC?" moved +16pp in 24h to 20%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?" moved -15pp in 24h to 7%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-10-11?" moved +18pp in 24h to 68%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Telstar 1963 win on 2026-10-11?" moved +15pp in 24h to 62%

Polymarket order flow on "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?": 4-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($189,203 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction mar

Polymarket order flow on "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?": 4-level bid ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($20,167 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction mark

Polymarket order flow on "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?": 4-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($100,711 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction mar

tanker_freight_etf shipping +5.5%, potential inflation signal

Polymarket order flow on "US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?": 4-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($238,782 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction mar

Polymarket order flow on "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?": 4-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($32,344 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predictio

Polymarket order flow on "2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House": 4-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($282,081 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction market

5 insiders at DELL sold $74.0M this week

2 insiders at HOOD sold $43.8M this week

2 insiders at GAP sold $22.7M this week

2 insiders at NTNX sold $29.7M this week

2 insiders at ANET sold $102.0M this week

Delek Logistics Partners, LP search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

NASDAQ MINI: speculators net long 58,123 contracts, 20.50% of open interest (+2.4σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

Jefferson Capital, Inc. / DE search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 58.2%, EPS $-39.19 vs $-93.84 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 35.7%, EPS $-2.10 vs $-3.264 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 31.5%, EPS $0.48 vs $0.3649 estimate

RAMBUS INC search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

Polymarket order flow on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?": 5-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($23,527 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predic

OSINT: Russia Unveils New Budget Amid Fiscal Tightening

Prediction market repriced: "Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 12?" moved +29pp in 24h to 74%

Polymarket order flow on "US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?": 5-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($13,781 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this predict

OSINT: Russia's latest policy moves stir market activity today

OSINT: Trump urges Ukraine to schedule presidential election

NATURAL GAS: speculators net short 236,439 contracts, 13.02% of open interest (-2.1σ vs 3y mean), crowded short positioning

Isaias (al092026) - Cat 0, 20 kt - Gulf production threat

Isaias (al092026) - Cat 0, 20 kt - Gulf production threat

OSINT: DOE authorizes SPR exchange to offset hurricane-driven fuel shortages

Arctic ice extent 6.02 Mkm² on 2026-10-09 - -1.54 vs 1981-2010 median (-20.4%); NSR open: False

OSINT: Russia's Oil Supply Faces Geopolitical Risks Amid Ukraine Conflict

Prediction market repriced: "US imports Russian diesel by October 31?" moved +15pp in 24h to 46%

Gold +1.43%: significant gain on the session

Isaias (al092026) - Cat 0, 25 kt - Gulf production threat

Isaias (al092026) - Cat 0, 25 kt - Gulf production threat

Silver 20-day realized volatility in the bottom 5% of its 1-year range

TIA open interest +22.8% over 24h, OI surge

STRK open interest +43.1% over 24h, OI surge

ETH liquidations totaled $5.3M in the past hour, 1% from long positions · above the 95th percentile of its 30d hourly history (OKX)

APT open interest +20.5% over 24h, OI surge

STRK open interest +68.7% over 24h, OI surge

INJ open interest +21.2% over 24h, OI surge

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 12?" moved +16pp in 24h to 94%

SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.90x): on-chain trade volume 0.90x liquidity

SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.81x): on-chain trade volume 0.81x liquidity

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 11?" moved +16pp in 24h to 57%

KMNO funding -0.0217% · 3th percentile of its 182d Binance history

SOL DEX volume/liquidity ratio elevated (0.88x): on-chain trade volume 0.88x liquidity

MXN/USD: speculators net long 10,701 contracts, 3.68% of open interest (-2.4σ vs 3y mean), still net long but far less long than usual, positioning unwinding toward short

EUR/USD: speculators net short 99,332 contracts, 11.41% of open interest (-2.1σ vs 3y mean), crowded short positioning

OSINT: DOE authorizes SPR exchange to offset hurricane-driven fuel shortages

OSINT: Russia's Oil Supply Faces Geopolitical Risks Amid Ukraine Conflict