2026-10-25

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?" moved -20pp in 24h to 50%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 19-25?" moved -28pp in 24h to 4%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October?" moved -22pp in 24h to 32%

Prediction market repriced: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 25?" moved +28pp in 24h to 89%

ETH RSI 29.8, oversold (crossed below 30)

KMNO funding -0.0215% · 3th percentile of its 197d Binance history

SOL RSI 27.7, oversold (crossed below 30)

Prediction market repriced: "Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 October 19-25?" moved -18pp in 24h to 10%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?" moved -20pp in 24h to 17%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by " moved -22pp in 24h to 14%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele" moved +27pp in 24h to 42%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele" moved +23pp in 24h to 24%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the U" moved -22pp in 24h to 20%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Octo": $42,500 in orders from 8 wallets absorbed at the 6% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predicti

Polymarket order flow on "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazi": $11,472 in orders from 25 wallets absorbed at the 81% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predic

Prediction market repriced: "Will Sporting CP win on 2026-10-25?" moved -29pp in 24h to 50%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Dejan Šoškić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?" moved +26pp in 24h to 40%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential" moved -32pp in 24h to 67%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by " moved -24pp in 24h to 18%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from " moved +20pp in 24h to 96%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-10-25?" moved -44pp in 24h to 4%

Prediction market repriced: "Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-10-25?" moved +29pp in 24h to 76%

Polymarket order flow on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Octo": 6-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($17,684 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Oct": $12,497 in orders from 14 wallets absorbed at the 6% level, consistent with hidden resting size on this predict

Prediction market repriced: "Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-10-25?" moved -33pp in 24h to 14%

Prediction market repriced: "Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?" moved +54pp in 24h to 72%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-10-25?" moved +31pp in 24h to 94%

Prediction market repriced: "Will AC Horsens win on 2026-10-25?" moved +46pp in 24h to 86%

Polymarket order flow on "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?": 6-level ask ladder, ~0.1pp spacing ($76,913 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction mark

Prediction market repriced: "Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-10-25?" moved -23pp in 24h to 30%

Polymarket order flow on "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?": 5-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($34,049 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction mark

Prediction market repriced: "Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?" moved +22pp in 24h to 44%

Polymarket order flow on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Oct": 5-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($11,593 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Will Aleksandar Vučić - United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary" moved -36pp in 24h to 36%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?" moved -47pp in 24h to 23%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Student List - Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary elec" moved +22pp in 24h to 50%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?" moved -48pp in 24h to 5%

tanker_freight_etf shipping +12.0%, potential inflation signal

Polymarket order flow on "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazi": 7-level ask ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($10,990 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this pred

Prediction market repriced: "Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-10-24?" moved -31pp in 24h to 6%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-10-24?" moved +38pp in 24h to 74%

Polymarket order flow on "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?": 5-level bid ladder, ~1.0pp spacing ($11,373 resting), consistent with programmatic order placement on this prediction mark

Prediction market repriced: "Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-10-24?" moved +45pp in 24h to 88%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-10-24?" moved +22pp in 24h to 66%

Prediction market repriced: "Will EC Bahia win on 2026-10-24?" moved +26pp in 24h to 50%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-10-24?" moved -27pp in 24h to 10%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-10-24?" moved -41pp in 24h to 22%

Prediction market repriced: "Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-10-24?" moved +22pp in 24h to 76%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?" moved -20pp in 24h to 40%

Prediction market repriced: "Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?" moved +22pp in 24h to 80%

Prediction market repriced: "Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?" moved +20pp in 24h to 82%

china_us_east shipping +8.8%, potential inflation signal

Prediction market repriced: "Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?" moved +19pp in 24h to 82%

Prediction market repriced: "Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?" moved +16pp in 24h to 46%

OSINT: Iran-US geopolitical tension rises amid Trump-related developments

Prediction market repriced: "Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from " moved +15pp in 24h to 46%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" moved +15pp in 24h to 33%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by " moved -16pp in 24h to 15%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential el" moved -16pp in 24h to 19%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" moved -16pp in 24h to 67%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from " moved +16pp in 24h to 81%

VIX at 19.5: CAUTION territory

Prediction market repriced: "Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential el" moved -19pp in 24h to 51%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-10-25?" moved +18pp in 24h to 78%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?" moved +17pp in 24h to 30%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?" moved -17pp in 24h to 70%

Prediction market repriced: "Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-10-25?" moved +16pp in 24h to 84%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?" moved +16pp in 24h to 16%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-10-25?" moved +19pp in 24h to 72%

Prediction market repriced: "Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential el" moved -15pp in 24h to 10%

Rhine R. (Kaub): low water (45.0 cm), Rhine diesel/coal barge restriction

Rhine R. (Kaub): low water (43.0 cm), Rhine diesel/coal barge restriction

OSINT: US Geopolitical Tensions Raise Macro Market Concerns

Rhine R. (Kaub): low water (42.0 cm), Rhine diesel/coal barge restriction

Rhine R. (Kaub): low water (40.0 cm), Rhine diesel/coal barge restriction

OSINT: Lula urges Brazilians to pick Brazil's flag over US flag

OSINT: US Inflation and Election Risks Heighten Geopolitical Tensions with Iran

OSINT: Speculation of Collapse of Western Governments Sparks Market Turmoil

OSINT: Kazakhstan, Guyana Back Coalition to Delay EU Methane Rules

Oil -1.18%: significant decline on the session

NATURAL GAS: speculators net short 241,272 contracts, 14.10% of open interest (-2.5σ vs 3y mean), crowded short positioning

OSINT: Iran-US geopolitical tension rises amid Trump-related developments

Prediction market repriced: "Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2027?" moved -20pp in 24h to 29%

OIL RSI 73.7, overbought (crossed above 70)

2 insiders at CRDO sold $7.7M this week

6 insiders at TRV sold $64.0M this week

3 insiders at INNV sold $41.6M this week

3 insiders at BROS sold $12.8M this week

2 insiders at SNOW sold $111.0M this week

Web3Labs Global Inc. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

NASDAQ MINI: speculators net long 50,726 contracts, 18.62% of open interest (+2.0σ vs 3y mean), crowded long positioning

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 9.4%, EPS $0.97 vs $1.0706 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 8.3%, EPS $0.82 vs $0.7575 estimate

Q4-2026: Missed consensus by 9.4%, EPS $0.97 vs $1.0706 estimate

Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 8.2%, EPS $0.81 vs $0.7487 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 8.2%, EPS $0.81 vs $0.7487 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 8.9%, EPS $0.44 vs $0.404 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 8.9%, EPS $0.44 vs $0.404 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 91.9%, EPS $0.19 vs $2.355 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 179.2%, EPS $-0.20 vs $0.2525 estimate

Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 179.2%, EPS $-0.20 vs $0.2525 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 181.4%, EPS $1.93 vs $0.6858 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 6.1%, EPS $3.43 vs $3.234 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 6.1%, EPS $3.43 vs $3.234 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 11.1%, EPS $5.71 vs $5.1389 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 27.8%, EPS $0.95 vs $1.3158 estimate

Q4-2026: Missed consensus by 27.8%, EPS $0.95 vs $1.3158 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 74.1%, EPS $1.70 vs $0.9767 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 17.7%, EPS $1.83 vs $1.5545 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 163.1%, EPS $-0.19 vs $0.3009 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 281.4%, EPS $0.91 vs $-0.5016 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 50.7%, EPS $1.2915 vs $2.6201 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 12.0%, EPS $0.08 vs $0.0714 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 11.0%, EPS $0.50 vs $0.4505 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 11.0%, EPS $0.50 vs $0.4505 estimate

Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 26.0%, EPS $0.21 vs $0.1667 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 21.1%, EPS $0.17 vs $0.1404 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 220.3%, EPS $0.55 vs $0.1717 estimate

Q2-2027: Missed consensus by 65.2%, EPS $0.03 vs $0.0862 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 65.2%, EPS $0.03 vs $0.0862 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 8.9%, EPS $9.27 vs $8.5133 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 8.9%, EPS $9.27 vs $8.5133 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 7.2%, EPS $1.33 vs $1.2409 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 207.2%, EPS $0.47 vs $0.153 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 50.2%, EPS $0.20 vs $0.1332 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 50.2%, EPS $0.20 vs $0.1332 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 14.7%, EPS $-0.13 vs $-0.1133 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 320.0%, EPS $-0.46 vs $0.2091 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 48.9%, EPS $0.53 vs $0.356 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 445.5%, EPS $0.30 vs $0.055 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 18.7%, EPS $0.89 vs $0.7501 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 17.3%, EPS $1.53 vs $1.3043 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 5.9%, EPS $0.40 vs $0.3777 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 13.7%, EPS $0.43 vs $0.4983 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 52.8%, EPS $1.26 vs $0.8248 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 52.8%, EPS $1.26 vs $0.8248 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 22.9%, EPS $0.54 vs $0.7007 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 5.4%, EPS $0.55 vs $0.5816 estimate

Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 12.5%, EPS $2.06 vs $1.8304 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 12.5%, EPS $2.06 vs $1.8304 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 32.3%, EPS $-0.13 vs $-0.1919 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 32.3%, EPS $-0.13 vs $-0.1919 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 46.5%, EPS $0.31 vs $0.5799 estimate

Q2-2027: Missed consensus by 46.5%, EPS $0.31 vs $0.5799 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 34.6%, EPS $0.11 vs $0.1683 estimate

Q4-2026: Missed consensus by 34.6%, EPS $0.11 vs $0.1683 estimate

Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 7.7%, EPS $0.16 vs $0.1734 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 21.8%, EPS $1.11 vs $0.9113 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 11.0%, EPS $0.40 vs $0.3602 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 6.5%, EPS $2.38 vs $2.2341 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 19.8%, EPS $0.86 vs $0.718 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 185.3%, EPS $-0.11 vs $0.1289 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 25.0%, EPS $-0.13 vs $-0.1734 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 55.2%, EPS $-0.06 vs $-0.134 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 77.7%, EPS $-0.46 vs $-2.0604 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 23.8%, EPS $-0.70 vs $-0.5656 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 21.1%, EPS $0.86 vs $0.7104 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 8.5%, EPS $0.47 vs $0.5134 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 7.7%, EPS $-2.84 vs $-3.0784 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 37.3%, EPS $0.63 vs $1.0044 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 19.1%, EPS $0.35 vs $0.4327 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 10.3%, EPS $-1.21 vs $-1.3484 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 128.9%, EPS $1.9019 vs $0.831 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 57.4%, EPS $4.42 vs $2.808 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 8.9%, EPS $5.29 vs $4.8574 estimate

Q3-2026: Missed consensus by 6.6%, EPS $0.38 vs $0.4069 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 7.2%, EPS $0.45 vs $0.4199 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 382.7%, EPS $0.32 vs $0.0663 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 137.9%, EPS $-0.17 vs $0.4488 estimate

Q4-2026: Missed consensus by 51.5%, EPS $-0.17 vs $-0.1122 estimate

Q1-2026: Missed consensus by 51.5%, EPS $-0.17 vs $-0.1122 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 6.4%, EPS $2.60 vs $2.4443 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 6.4%, EPS $2.60 vs $2.4443 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 43.9%, EPS $0.41 vs $0.285 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 16.0%, EPS $0.26 vs $0.2242 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 21.2%, EPS $8.91 vs $7.3517 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 13.2%, EPS $7.66 vs $6.7648 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 21.2%, EPS $8.91 vs $7.3517 estimate

Q3-2026: Beat consensus by 5.1%, EPS $2.85 vs $2.7121 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 64.5%, EPS $-0.13 vs $-0.3661 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 6.3%, EPS $0.87 vs $0.8181 estimate

Q1-2027: Beat consensus by 23.1%, EPS $0.92 vs $0.7474 estimate

Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 6.3%, EPS $0.87 vs $0.8181 estimate

Q1-2026: Beat consensus by 23.1%, EPS $0.92 vs $0.7474 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 13.2%, EPS $1.36 vs $1.2016 estimate

Q2-2027: Beat consensus by 13.2%, EPS $1.36 vs $1.2016 estimate

Q4-2026: Beat consensus by 16.9%, EPS $0.84 vs $0.7187 estimate

Q2-2026: Beat consensus by 16.9%, EPS $0.84 vs $0.7187 estimate

Q1-2027: Missed consensus by 15.2%, EPS $0.35 vs $0.4127 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 15.2%, EPS $0.35 vs $0.4127 estimate

Q2-2026: Missed consensus by 194.1%, EPS $-0.15 vs $-0.051 estimate

Q4-2026: Missed consensus by 194.1%, EPS $-0.15 vs $-0.051 estimate

ONTO INNOVATION INC. search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

MFS INVESTMENT GRADE MUNICIPAL TRUST search volume spiked +100 pts, unusual interest

Owens Corning search volume spiked +34 pts, unusual interest

OSINT: Kazakhstan, Guyana Back Coalition to Delay EU Methane Rules

MXN/USD: speculators net long 17,023 contracts, 6.12% of open interest (-2.1σ vs 3y mean), still net long but far less long than usual, positioning unwinding toward short

CHF/USD: speculators net short 18,150 contracts, 13.30% of open interest (+2.1σ vs 3y mean), still net short but far less short than usual, positioning unwinding toward long

EUR/USD: speculators net short 134,524 contracts, 15.32% of open interest (-2.4σ vs 3y mean), crowded short positioning

OSINT: Iran-US geopolitical tension rises amid Trump-related developments