Research Notes · Theme
Macro
Kresmion Research notes on macro. Independent, source-attributed, information-only.
- September 4, 2026August Payrolls Printed 162,000 Against a 56,000 Consensus. The September Hike Leg Moved to 52.5 Percent and Passed the Hold.
- August 2, 2026The Bet on a Stronger Dollar Was the Most Crowded in Three Years of Data. Then the US Bought Yen.
- July 24, 2026The Fed Has Cut 0.75 Points Since Last Summer. The Two-Year Treasury Has Risen 0.48.
- July 23, 2026Gold's 30-Day Correlation With Bitcoin Reached 0.64. With Long Treasuries It Is 0.10.
- July 21, 2026Bitcoin and Ethereum Rose This Week While Every Major US Stock Index Fell. The Macro Regime Behind Them Did Not Shift.
- July 19, 2026Oil Rose About 15 Percent This Week as US-Iran Strikes Turned Deadly. Speculators Went Into the Surge Near Their Lightest Crude Bet of the Year.
- July 18, 2026Speculators Hold One of Their Biggest Natural Gas Bets in a Year. Since They Piled In, the Price Has Fallen Nearly 11 Percent.
- July 17, 2026Wheat Rose 11 Percent in Six Sessions on Black Sea Strikes. A Second Supply Signal Was Firing at the Same Time, an Ocean Away.
- July 13, 2026Liquidity Is Abundant and the Real Cost of Money Keeps Rising. The June Inflation Report Is the Test.
- July 12, 2026A Prediction Market Now Prices a July Fed Hike at 20 Percent. Speculators Just Flipped Net Short the Euro.
- July 5, 2026Speculators Are the Most Net Short the British Pound in a Year. They Built the Bet in a Single Week.
- June 30, 2026Kresmion's Regime Score Has Almost Recovered From Its First Risk-Off Print. The Rebound Is Built on One Backward-Looking Factor.
- June 28, 2026Treasuries Have Started Moving With Stocks. The 60/40 Bond Hedge Is Quietly Weakening
- June 27, 2026Gold Stopped Trading Like a Safe Haven This Month. Its 30-Day Correlation to the S&P 500 Is Now Positive 0.78.
- June 25, 2026Kresmion's Cross Asset Regime Turned Risk-Off Today. Credit Spreads and Recession Bets Have Not.
- June 18, 2026US Retail Sales Rose 0.9% in May Against a 0.5% Forecast, the Same Afternoon the Fed Held at 3.75%.
- June 17, 2026The Market Prices Today's Fed Decision at 98%. The Real Event Is Warsh's First Dot Plot.
- June 16, 2026Five Funds Opened New Meta Positions in Q1. Five Others Trimmed Theirs.
- June 15, 2026Producer Inflation Hit 6.5% in May, the Hottest Since 2022. The Oil Spike Behind It Is Already Reversing.
- June 13, 2026Risk-Off Unwound in Three Days Before Warsh's First Fed Meeting
- June 9, 2026A Week Before Warsh's First Fed Meeting, Bitcoin Sits at 13.8% Odds of $110k
- June 8, 2026Every Macro Factor Turned Negative This Week. A Hot Jobs Report Was the Trigger.
- June 5, 2026$2.3 Billion of Bitcoin's Whale Volume Last Week Was Self-Transfer Noise. The Genuine Flow Ran One Way.
- June 1, 2026Risk Appetite Rebounded in May. It Skipped Bitcoin.
- May 31, 2026Risk Comes Out of the System: Positioning Capitulates as the Oil Shock Fades
- May 30, 2026Accumulation Without Conviction: Bitcoin Inflows Build, the Market Stays Skeptical
- May 28, 2026Neutral Macro Regime Amid Elevated Volatility and Geopolitical Tensions