Research Notes · Ticker
BTC
Kresmion Research notes about BTC. Independent, source-attributed, information-only.
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- September 4, 2026August Payrolls Printed 162,000 Against a 56,000 Consensus. The September Hike Leg Moved to 52.5 Percent and Passed the Hold.
- July 31, 2026The Options Market Prices a Near-Term Bitcoin Dip at Nearly 40 Percent. The Betting Crowd Puts It at 13.
- July 23, 2026Gold's 30-Day Correlation With Bitcoin Reached 0.64. With Long Treasuries It Is 0.10.
- July 22, 2026For Two Months Money Left the US Bitcoin ETFs. Last Week It Came Back Hard. The Price Has Not Broken Out.
- July 21, 2026Bitcoin and Ethereum Rose This Week While Every Major US Stock Index Fell. The Macro Regime Behind Them Did Not Shift.
- July 15, 2026Two Prediction Markets Price Bitcoin's Chance of Reaching $100,000 This Year. One Says 14 Percent, the Other 9.
- July 14, 2026More Public Companies Filed to Add Ether to Their Balance Sheets Last Month Than Bitcoin. One of Them Now Holds Almost 5 Percent of the Supply.
- July 4, 2026Solana, Ether and Cardano Have All Outrun Bitcoin This Week. The Money Behind Them Is Not Coming From the ETFs.
- July 2, 2026Bitcoin's Futures Speculators Are Near a One Year Net Long Extreme. Its US ETFs Just Posted Five Straight Days of Outflows.
- June 29, 2026Two Independent Betting Markets Quietly Agree on Bitcoin's Year End. The Most Likely Outcome Sits Below Where It Trades Now.
- June 25, 2026Kresmion's Cross Asset Regime Turned Risk-Off Today. Credit Spreads and Recession Bets Have Not.
- June 20, 2026Bitcoin Futures Speculators Are Crowded Long at a Six Week High. Spot ETFs, Whales, and the Options Desk Are Leaning the Other Way.
- June 13, 2026Risk-Off Unwound in Three Days Before Warsh's First Fed Meeting
- June 11, 2026The Whale Tape's Biggest Genuine Move This Week Was Solana, Not Bitcoin
- June 10, 2026Bitcoin ETFs Shed $3.4 Billion in Twelve Sessions. Futures Traders Are Still Crowded Long.
- June 9, 2026A Week Before Warsh's First Fed Meeting, Bitcoin Sits at 13.8% Odds of $110k
- June 8, 2026Every Macro Factor Turned Negative This Week. A Hot Jobs Report Was the Trigger.
- June 5, 2026$2.3 Billion of Bitcoin's Whale Volume Last Week Was Self-Transfer Noise. The Genuine Flow Ran One Way.
- June 1, 2026Risk Appetite Rebounded in May. It Skipped Bitcoin.
- May 31, 2026Risk Comes Out of the System: Positioning Capitulates as the Oil Shock Fades
- May 30, 2026Accumulation Without Conviction: Bitcoin Inflows Build, the Market Stays Skeptical