2026-11-02

Overview

The Kresmion regime eased marginally since yesterday but remains Risk-On, mildly positive with low conviction. Both events land with the US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.98%. Macro Regime

Risk appetite is the dominant factor at +0.35, and volatility at +0.16 and liquidity at +0.14 add support. Growth is the only drag at -0.16, which keeps the composite only slightly on the Risk-On side and explains the low conviction. US financial conditions are consistent with the liquidity factor: the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (US) stands at -0.4870, looser than average. BIS lists three countries as ELEVATED: Australia's debt-service ratio of 20% of income, Brazil's debt-service ratio of 30% of income and Canada's debt-service ratio of 26% of income. Key Risks

The RBA Interest Rate Decision for Australia carries a forecast of 4.85 against a prior of 4.6, and a higher policy rate passes straight into household repayment costs where Australia's debt-service ratio already sits at 20% of income. In the US, a 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 7.24% keeps purchase financing expensive while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (US) reads 48.10, a combination that limits household appetite for new borrowing. Market Context

The US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.98% and the US 2-year is 4.61%, leaving the US 10-year minus 2-year curve slope at +37bps. Federal Reserve total assets stand at $6.75 trillion, and Fed overnight reverse repo usage is $4.38 billion. US initial jobless claims are 194,000. The Fed nominal broad US dollar index is 121.32, with a high-severity neutral signal on DXY. Bitcoin trades at $78,377 (0.58% over 24h), Ethereum at $2,292 (0.93%) and Solana at $94.90 (-0.95%). The largest whale move was 1,000,000,000 USDT ($1.00B) leaving Binance, an exchange, for an unknown whale wallet. It came alongside two smaller USDT outflows of $300M and $200M on the same route, and during the same window Bitcoin rose 0.58%. Watch

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI appears twice on the calendar: at 14:00 UTC with a prior of 54.5, and at 15:00 UTC with a forecast of 54.6 and a prior of 54.5. A print above 54.6 would stand against the negative growth factor in today's reading, while a print below 54.5 would align with it. The US Midterm Elections follow at 2026-11-03 00:00 UTC. The RBA Interest Rate Decision for Australia is due at 03:30 UTC, with a forecast of 4.85 against a prior of 4.6. US JOLTs Job Openings are due at 15:00 UTC on 2026-11-03, with a forecast of 7.13 and a prior of 7.079.