2026-11-05

Overview The Kresmion US macro regime slipped further into Risk-Off since yesterday, with conviction rated high. The main tension is a sharp drop in risk appetite while US financial conditions still read looser than average, with the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index at -0.4590. Crypto moved against that tone over the past 24 hours, with Bitcoin up 3.35% to $80,436. Macro Regime Risk appetite drives the reading. Its factor score of -1.07 is more than three times the size of any other component. Liquidity is the second drag at -0.31, growth is mildly negative at -0.12, and volatility is close to flat at +0.07. The deterioration therefore reflects weaker appetite for risk, with no volatility shock behind it. BIS flags three countries as ELEVATED: Australia's debt-service ratio of 20% of income, Brazil's debt-service ratio of 30% of income and Canada's debt-service ratio of 26% of income. Japan sits on WATCH with a debt-service ratio of 16% of income and a credit-to-GDP gap of +5.7pp. Key Risks The US 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 7.24%, alongside a US 10-year Treasury yield of 4.95%, raises household borrowing costs at a time when the University of Michigan US consumer sentiment index reads 48.10. Canada's debt-service ratio of 26% of income makes Canadian households sensitive to job losses, because income is the channel that services that debt. Canada's unemployment rate print (forecast 6.5, prior 6.5) is therefore a direct test of that exposure. On-chain, 1,344 BTC ($106M) moved from an unknown whale wallet into OKX, which adds coins available on that venue. Two OKX outflows of 2,013 BTC ($158M) and 1,530 BTC ($120M) do not measure net BTC exchange flow, since BTC deposit addresses are not tracked. Pfizer (PFE) carries a critical-severity executive change filing signal, a company-level event. Market Context The US Treasury curve slope stands at +34bps, with the US 10-year yield at 4.95% and the US 2-year yield at 4.61%. US 10-year breakeven inflation is 2.26%. The Federal Reserve balance sheet totals $6.75 trillion, and US overnight reverse repo usage is $225 million, leaving little idle cash in that facility. US initial jobless claims are 194,000. The Fed nominal broad US dollar index reads 121.67. Ethereum rose 5.49% to $2,421 and Solana rose 3.26% to $95.85. Those signals sit against a regime risk appetite factor of -1.07, which leaves crypto diverging from the broader Risk-Off tone. Watch The BoE Interest Rate Decision for GB is due today at 12:00 UTC, forecast 4.0 against a prior of 3.75. A decision at 4.0 would be a hike, adding a second major central bank leaning tight alongside a US 2-year yield of 4.61%. A hold at 3.75 would contradict the forecast. The larger event is US Non Farm Payrolls on 2026-11-06 at 13:30 UTC, forecast 65.0, prior 29.0, released alongside the US unemployment rate (forecast 4.2, prior 4.2). A print near the prior of 29.0 would sit awkwardly against US initial jobless claims of 194,000. A print at or above 65.0 would align with that low claims level.