Sovereign spreads
Each country's 10-year government bond yield, and how far it sits above or below the German Bund and the US 10-year Treasury, in basis points.
Market-implied credit: 10Y spread (Kresmion calculation, not a credit rating). Kresmion subtracts one published 10-year government bond yield from another; no rating agency is involved.
10-year spreads by country40 countries; sorted by spread vs Bund; click a column to sort
ECBECB IRS (27)OECDOECD via FRED (12)H.15US: H.15 monthly mean (1)+spread widened-spread narrowed
| Spread vs German Bund, bp | Spread vs US Treasury, bp | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico MX | 9.16OECD | +598 | +3 | -49 | +448 | +6 | -40 | older |
| South Africa ZA | 8.75OECD | +557 | -8 | -191 | +407 | -5 | -181 | older |
| Romania RO | 6.43ECB | +325 | +23 | -125 | +175 | +26 | -116 | older |
| Poland PL | 5.81ECB | +263 | +20 | -10 | +113 | +23 | -1 | older |
| Chile CL | 5.55OECD | +248 | -8 | -51 | +95 | -10 | -28 | older |
| Hungary HU | 5.46ECB | +227 | +5 | -208 | +77 | +8 | -199 | older |
| Australia AU | 5.01OECD | +183 | -2 | +23 | +33 | +1 | +32 | older |
| United Kingdom GB | 4.99OECD | +180 | -6 | -16 | +30 | -3 | -7 | older |
| Czechia CZ | 4.91ECB | +173 | +1 | +5 | +23 | +4 | +14 | older |
| New Zealand NZ | 4.71OECD | +153 | -1 | -21 | +3 | +2 | -12 | older |
| South Korea KR | 4.29OECD | +110 | -11 | +96 | -40 | -8 | +105 | older |
| Norway NO | 4.29OECD | +110 | -10 | -10 | -40 | -7 | -1 | older |
| Bulgaria BG | 4.09ECB | +91 | -11 | -35 | -59 | -8 | -26 | older |
| France FR | 4.00ECB | +82 | +4 | +7 | -68 | +7 | +16 | older |
| Italy IT | 3.99ECB | +80 | -1 | -6 | -70 | +2 | +3 | older |
| Israel IL | 3.93OECD | +75 | -9 | -75 | -75 | -6 | -66 | older |
| Malta MT | 3.90ECB | +72 | -18 | -15 | -78 | -15 | -6 | older |
| Greece GR | 3.87ECB | +69 | -3 | -1 | -81 | 0 | +8 | older |
| Slovakia SK | 3.85ECB | +67 | +1 | -11 | -83 | +4 | -2 | older |
| Estonia EE | 3.83ECB | +65 | -3 | +10 | -85 | 0 | +19 | older |
| Latvia LV | 3.82ECB | +64 | -2 | +14 | -86 | +1 | +23 | older |
| Belgium BE | 3.76ECB | +58 | +1 | +2 | -92 | +4 | +11 | older |
| Canada CA | 3.67OECD | +49 | +1 | -26 | -101 | +4 | -17 | older |
| Spain ES | 3.63ECB | +45 | -1 | -14 | -105 | +2 | -4 | older |
| Cyprus CY | 3.62ECB | +44 | -1 | +19 | -106 | +2 | +28 | older |
| Croatia HR | 3.58ECB | +40 | -11 | +9 | -110 | -8 | +18 | older |
| Slovenia SI | 3.54ECB | +36 | +6 | -14 | -114 | +9 | -5 | older |
| Portugal PT | 3.54ECB | +35 | -2 | -9 | -115 | +1 | 0 | older |
| Finland FI | 3.52ECB | +34 | -2 | -8 | -116 | +1 | +1 | older |
| Austria AT | 3.41ECB | +23 | -3 | -12 | -127 | 0 | -3 | older |
| Luxembourg LU | 3.40ECB | +22 | -2 | 0 | -128 | +1 | +9 | older |
| Ireland IE | 3.35ECB | +17 | -2 | -11 | -133 | +1 | -1 | older |
| Netherlands NL | 3.29ECB | +10 | -2 | -11 | -140 | +1 | -1 | older |
| Germany DE | 3.19ECB | 0 | 0 | 0 | -150 | +3 | +9 | older |
| Sweden SE | 3.02ECB | -16 | 0 | +8 | -166 | +3 | +17 | older |
| Denmark DK | 3.01ECB | -17 | -3 | -5 | -167 | 0 | +4 | older |
| Japan JP | 2.94OECD | -24 | +4 | +83 | -174 | +7 | +92 | older |
| Lithuania LT | 2.88ECB | -30 | -11 | -51 | -180 | -8 | -42 | older |
| Switzerland CH | 0.47OECD | -271 | -12 | -36 | -421 | -9 | -27 | older |
| United States US | 4.99H.15 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Every spread uses the SAME month for both legs: the country's yield minus the German yield from ECB IRS, and minus the mean of that month's daily US 10-year Treasury yields. The As of column is that month. 39 countries have not published September 2026 yet and show an earlier month, marked older.
Method and limits
- Yields are monthly averages of 10-year benchmark government bond yields, exactly as published: the ECB's long-term interest rate for convergence purposes (IRS dataset) for the 27 EU members, and the OECD's long-term interest rate for other OECD countries. The US yield is the mean of the month's daily 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yields (Federal Reserve H.15), only for complete months.
- Spread vs Bund = country yield minus Germany's yield for the same month, in basis points (1 bp = 0.01 percentage point). Spread vs UST uses the US yield the same way. Changes compare with the country's own spread 1 and 12 months earlier.
- A wider spread means investors demand more yield to hold that government's bonds than Germany's or the US's. It mixes credit risk with liquidity, supply and, outside the euro area, currency and inflation expectations, because those bonds are in the local currency. It is a market price relationship, not a credit rating, and not a forecast.
- Monthly data: the ECB publishes a month around the middle of the next one, so the table trails the market by several weeks. Countries publish on different days; each row names its own month.
- Published values can be revised. Kresmion keeps every value it has seen and uses the newest.
Sources and terms
- Source: ECB statistics, dataset IRS. The ECB yields are available free of charge at data.ecb.europa.eu. Modified: the spreads and changes are computed by Kresmion from the published yields.
- OECD (2026), Main Economic Indicators: long-term interest rates, data-explorer.oecd.org, retrieved via FRED (series IRLTLT01 followed by the country code).
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15 Selected Interest Rates, DGS10, via FRED. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Cite this data
Kresmion, "Sovereign Spreads", data to 2026-09, https://kresmion.com/macro/sovereign-spreads. Upstream data: ECB (IRS), OECD (Main Economic Indicators), Federal Reserve (H.15).