Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%?

Polymarket traders priced "Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%?" at 20% as of Oct 3, 2026, 15:39 UTC, up from 17% a week earlier.

As of Oct 3, 2026, 15:39 UTC. Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 1395455. Method and limitations.

Probability history

Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.

History in numbers

Since Jun 20, 2026, this market has traded between 17 percent (Jul 30, 2026) and 28 percent (Jul 24, 2026), across 2,908 recorded prices. The current price of 20 percent is 2.5 percentage points above where it stood 7 days ago (17 percent), and 3.5 percentage points below where it stood 30 days ago (23 percent).

Weekly closes

Market details

Venues: Polymarket

How this market resolves

The market currently prices the YES outcome at 20 percent, with the NO outcome at 80 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.

This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results...

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Background reading

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Cite this data

Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.

Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 1395455

Kresmion, "Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-10-03, https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-popular-vote-in-the-2026-us-house-of-representatives-midterm-elections-by-between-6-and-8-942. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 1395455.

Link to this data (HTML):

<a href="https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-popular-vote-in-the-2026-us-house-of-representatives-midterm-elections-by-between-6-and-8-942">Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%? (prediction market probability) (Kresmion)</a>