US recession by end of 2026?
Part of: US recession by end of 2026?. Crowd probability estimates from prediction markets, not financial advice.
Polymarket traders priced "US recession by end of 2026?" at 11% as of Sep 22, 2026, 15:34 UTC.
As of . Source: Polymarket gamma API, market 609655. Method and limitations.
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Probability history
Gridlines at 25, 50 and 75 percent. History covers the recorded price path of the YES outcome.
History in numbers
Since Sep 15, 2026, this market has traded between 7 percent (Sep 21, 2026) and 23 percent (Sep 15, 2026), across 223 recorded prices.
Market details
Venues: Polymarket
How this market resolves
The market currently prices the YES outcome at 11 percent, with the NO outcome at 89 percent. This is read as the crowd's probability estimate for this event, not a forecast or advice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time. The resolution source will be the official announcements fro...
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Background reading
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Cite this data
Kresmion stores the venue's YES price on a fixed capture schedule. The figures here are those stored prices and the differences between them, not a Kresmion estimate.
Upstream: Polymarket gamma API, market 609655
Kresmion, "US recession by end of 2026? (prediction market probability)", data as of 2026-09-22, https://kresmion.com/odds/us-recession-by-end-of-2026. Upstream data: Polymarket gamma API, market 609655.
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Source: Polymarket via the public gamma API, synced by Kresmion. Last updated 2026-09-22 15:34 UTC. This page is research context, not an order book. Kresmion accepts no orders and holds no funds. Percentages are YES prices and can move fast.
Kresmion reports prediction market prices as market data. We are not an operator of any prediction market, we take no positions and hold no funds, and nothing on this page is an invitation to trade on any venue. Prediction markets are not authorised in every jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you are before using one.